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Overview of Energy Industry
Citation preview
Population Growth By Region
Per Capita Carbon Emissions
For Climate Change Skeptics; its not about climate!
Global Carbon Emissions World GDP
Energy Sources
Use of Cars
Technology Demands
Fossil Fuel Uses
Turning to Cities
Per Capita Consumption of Energy
Energy Consumption by Source
Oil
What Is Oil Used for Anyway?
Oil Demand and Consumption by Nation
How many years of oil are left?
Hubbert’s Peak
Demand for Oil Inelastic
Oil Prices
Production in Decline
World Energy Use by Non-Alternative Fuels and Oil Resources Use by Region
How does oil get to us?
Oil Sands
Natural Gas Reserves by Region
Natural Gas Flows
Coal Reserves in US
Electricity Essential for Economic Growth
26
NAP_NAG_ConfCall_040308
Electricity and Carbon Emissions
Source: Cambridge Energy Research Associates.Data source: US Energy Information Administration. 80204-1
Res idential (nonelectric) 6%
Electric Power40%
Transportation33%
Industrial(nonelectric)
17%
C ommercial (nonelectric) 4%
Electricity is Big Money
U.S. Electric Value Chain, 2005
COAL1,038 MM Short Tons
($31 Billion)
NATURAL GAS5,679 Bcf($51 Billion)
OIL214 Million Barrels
($12 Billion)
NUCLEAR($5 Billion)
FUEL COST DEFERRALS
($7.5 Billion)
$92 BillionMarket Value of Fuel Use for Generation
Fuel
313 GWCoal
386 GWNatural Gas
61 GWPetroleum
100 GWNuclear98 GWHydro24 GW
RenewablesTotal: 982 GW
$106 BillionValue Added
Generation (Installed MWs)
$24 BillionValue Added
Transmission
$67 BillionValue Added
Distribution
$7 BillionValue Added
Trading & Other
AnnualConsumption:
3,660 TWh
$296Billion
(Average Revenue per kWh: $0.081)
We Spend About
$300 BillionOn Electricity
Each Year
National Fuel Mix
Aging Infrastructure
Cost of Energy Infrastructure Overhaul
Thinking about Costs
32
CERA_NAP_ConfCall_032008
Levelized Cost of Electricity for Conventionaland Renewable Power Options
Source: Cambridge Energy Research Associates.Notes: See next slide for capital cost and operating cost assumptions. Wind utilization rate range is 20–40 percent, and cost range includes PTC benefits.Natural gas price range of $6–$8 per MMBtu assumed for combustion turbine and combined-cycle units. Renewable energy production and investment tax credits included.80109-5
50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275
Solar PV
Solar CSP
Biomass
Geothermal
Nonfirm Wind
Supercritical Coal
Combined Cycle
Combustion Turbine
Levelized Cost of Electricity(2007 dollars per MWh)
Cost of Nuclear
Increasing Cost of Electricity
Matching Supply and Demand
Misaligned Incentives-Regulated Monopolies
Undoing Monopolies
Misaligned Incentives- IPPs
Regional Power Generation
40
CERA_NAP_ConfCall_032008
Wind Output Does Not Match Load
Source: GE Power Systems Energy Consulting, The Effects of Integrating Wind Power on Transmission System Planning, Reliability and Operations,a report prepared for the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority, 2004. Used with permission.80109-6
3,000
2
WindOutput
(MW)
10
30
Load(thousandMW)
0
2,500 25
20
15
10
5
Average JulyNew York Control
Area Load
Average JulyWind Output
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
Hours of the Day
Wind Power in the US
42
CERA_NAP_ConfCall_032008
Reported Wind Turbine Prices—United States
Orders
1,600
TurbineTran s action
Price(2006 dollars
per kW)
1999 20070
1,400
1997 1998 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
Trend L ine
Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory database, US Department of Energy.71108-6
Pollution Points
Air Pollution
Air Pollution Impacts
Pollution Controls, Cap and Trade Has Worked
47
CERA_NAP_ConfCall_032008
New Power Generation Capacity Characteristics and Costs
Capital Cost ($ per kW)
Heat Rate (Btu/kWh)
Variable Production
Cost ($/MWh)
Fixed O&M ($ per kW-
year)
Estimated Utilization Rate
(percent)
Conventional Generation Options
Combustion Turbine 500–600 10,500 67 14 15
Combined Cycle 800–1000 7,000 44 24 85
Supercritical Coal 2,300–3,000 8,900 17 68 85
Renewable Generation Options
Wind 1,900–2,000 NA NA 49 20–40
Geothermal 3,500–4,500 NA 15 70 80
Biomass 2,500–3,500 12,500 35 100 85
Solar—Photovoltaic 5,200–6,500 NA NA 30 27
Solar—Concentrating 3,750–4,250 NA NA 55 30
Source: Cambridge Energy Research Associates.Notes: Combustion turbine design basis assumes 2 x 7F, dual fuel capable, nominal 340 MW. Combined-cycle gas turbine design basis assumes 2 x 2 x 1 7F, dual fuel capable, nominal 500 MW, closed-loop wet cooling. Supercritical coal unit design basis assumes nominal 600 MW unit with double reheat.Capital cost figures include owner's costs (development/permitting, land acquisition, construction G&A, financing costs, interest during construction, etc.), but exclude contractor risk premiums. Fixed O&M includes property tax and insurance as well as other fixed operating expenses (labor, maintenance materials, ongoing capital, etc.). Variable production cost includes fuel (natural gas at $6.00 per MMBtu, coal at $1.60 per MMBtu, and biomass at $2.00 per MMBtu) and variable O&M costs. Biomass design assumes a dedicated wood combustion facility. Solar PV cost estimate is based on utility scale installations.
Wind
Low
Moderate
Moderate to High
Generally Low withScattered Pockets of High Potential
Wind Resource Map: Potential forUtility-Scale Wind Power Development
(U.S. Annual Average Wind Power)
How Do Solar Panels Work
Solar Methods
Solar Thermal
Solar
54
CERA_NAP_ConfCall_032008
Renewables Portfolio Standard (RPS) and Purchase Obligations by State
Source: Cambridge Energy Research Associates, Database of State Incentives for Renewable Energy (DSIRE).*Previous Minnesota RPS was a nonbinding goal except for Xcel Energy.**Wisconsin requires all utilities to increase renewables contributions by 6 percent over the 2001–03 average level by 2015 and has a nonbinding goal of 10 percent by 2015.***Vermont’s voluntary standard becomes mandatory in 2013 if it is not met by 2012.****California: IOU = investor-owned utility; ESP = energy service provider; CCA = community-choice aggregator.*****Virginia: 2007 sales less the average annual percentage of power supplied from nuclear generators between 2004 and 2006.60502-2_1207
State Has RPS State with Nonbinding Goals
5,880 MWby 2015
30% by 2020for Xcel,
>25% new wind;mandatory 25% by2025 for others.* 30% by 2000;
10% increaseover 2007 total
capacity by2017
7.5%by 2019
(MD)
20% by2020
4% by 2009 (MA)
16% by 2019 (RI)
10% by 2010 (CT)
10% by 2015and 25% by 2025;
75% from wind
11% by 2022(0.386% solar)
(DC)
10% by 2019 (DE)
22.5% by 2020(2.12% solar) (NJ)
IA
M NW I
M E
N MAZ
C A
TX
PA
N V IL
N Y
C O
M T
20% by2020 (HI)
15% by 2020, 4.5% fromdistributed source
20% by 2015(1% solar)
20% by 2020(10% for large
municipals and coops,including 0.8% solar)
20% by 2010 (IOU, ESP,CCA);**** 20% by 2017
(all others); 33% by 2020(nonbinding goal)
15% by2015
6–8% by 2015(utility specific);
nonbinding goalof 10% by 2015**
25% by 2013; 1% customer sited
All loadgrowth
2005–12(VT)***
15% by2020
W A 18% alternative energy by 2019
(0.5% solar)
23.8% by 2025(0.3% new solar)
(NH)
25% by 2025(large utilities);
5–10% by 2025(smaller utilities)
O R
12% of2007
sales by2022*****
VA
4% by 2012 and11% by 2020
M O
Approximately250 MW by 1999
12.5%by
2025
N C
10% by 2015
N D
The Future?
Technology to Save Us?
How do we rethink meeting our needs?