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fallacies, futures & forecastseeing around corners
TOOLS FOR EXPLORING THE FUTURE
TRADECRAFT OF TRANSFORMATION
@aspiringarc
WARNINGwhat follows will have
permanent effects
BUT FIRST
some cognitive
recalibration
you have
30 MINUTESto learn 2 new superpowers
things are changing fast(?)
LOT’S OF BIG THINGS ARE HAPPENING
“the future is already
here it’s just not
evenly distributed”
– William Gibson
Anti-Pattern 3: Prediction PredilectionOur predilection for prediction and the certainty of uncertainty
Based on
those
assumptions
Of course
Our Prediction Predilection
ASSUMPTIONS ARE…
NOT INFORMATION!
ASSUMPTIONS ARE THE ABSENSE
OF INFORMATION!
WE SEE THINGS AS A LINEAR
We think we are doing this
SO WE NEED A NEW WAY
I hear you cry ‘DO WE’?
“denial is the most predictable
of all human emotions”
BUT FIRST, FIRST WE NEED TO KNOW
WHAT’S WRONG WITH US!
Dinosaurs eat
BRAINS
for breakfast
But first we need to consider our biases & ussome stuff is the same
Hofstadter's Law
Hofstadter's Law: It always
takes longer than you
expect, even when you
take into account
Hofstadter's Law.
Semmelweis Reflex
Semmelweis Reflex:
This is a professional
reflex to reject new
evidence that in some
way threatens
established norms or
firmly held beliefs.c
Availability Heuristic
We are more likely to
ascribe a higher
probability to events
that we actually hold
in our memories.
Framing Effect
Framing Effect says that
the wording or the
context in which
options are presented
directly impact (or
frame) our selections.
Reactance
is cognitive bias that
manifests itself in a
tendency to push
back against
reductions in
perceived or real
freedoms..
Anchoring Bias & Sacred Cows
A fixation on
repeatability leads to
anchoring and the
creation of ‘sacred
cows’ strongly held
beliefs
“To improve is to change,
to be perfect is to change
often”
Winston Churchill
“The idea that the
future is unpredictable
is undermined every
day by the ease with
which the past is
explained.” Daniel Kahneman
THE BAD NEWS IS
FOR SOME IT’S
ALREADY
TOO LATE
STEP 1: BECOMING A FUTURIST
THE FUTURE ISN’T CERTAIN!!!
We struggle to understand the impact
of the future and fail to see the signals
that are right in front of our eyes
We drift into unwanted futures
SO WE LOVE HISTORY, BUT THE FUTURE IS ALL WE HAVE LEFT
QUICK GUIDE TO BECOMING A FUTURIST
1 Collect signals from the futureFuturist squirrelling
Collect clues
Notice signals
Watch/listen
4 Questions What kind of change from what to what?
What’s driving the change? – what’s the future force
What will the world be like if this signal is amplified? normal//common//ubiquitous
Do we want that future?
2 Combine signals into forecasts
Futurist squirrelling
+ + +
what would this mean for me?
3 Create personal foresight
4 Play with the futureplay with stories for the future
SMART KITCHEN FORECAST
+ + +
What the hell is
going on?
Why are we here?
`SMART BATHROOM
+ +
HEALTHCARE FUTURES FROM EHEALTH BLOCKATHON
Teleportation of medicines to crisis
areas
Obstacle courses with incentives
Healthcard with points
Bank to store points
Health centre with automated
scanners
Health gate with controls
Work swarming for crisis mgmt.
• Magic pools with magic water
• Swimming pools and recreation
• Clean water
• Good food (modern twist on the pig farm)
• Horse farm
• Solar cars & clean environment
• Medicine shooting gun
• Robotic medicine distribution
WHAT DO THEIR FORECASTS NEED
STEP 2: Looking around corners
& Jumping into the future
Looking around corners& Jumping into the future
Futures, Scenarios and People!
We struggle to think about the future
in anything other than a linear 1-day
after the next way
We drift into unwanted futures
Scenarios Defined
Stories built around a methodically constructed plot.
A tool for identifying strategic options in the face of
long-range uncertainty.
A framework and a vocabulary for an on-going strategic
conversation.
A tale of 2 futures
1 Find the forces
2 Find the extremes
3 Create Scenarios
4 Explore the future
5 Find the themes and characteristics
6 Name the futures
7 Identify Responses
8 Find a way to win
9 Navigate the compass
http://www.iftf.org/fileadmin/user_upload/images/M
ore_Projects_Images/AltEnergy.jpg
“A reliable way of
making people believe
in falsehoods is frequent
repetition, because
familiarity is not easily
distinguished from
truth.” Daniel Kahneman
@aspiringarc
http://ie.linkedin.com/in/garmaccriosta
www.businessmodeladventures.com
Hello, my name is Gar
and I help with
∆delta
/ˈdɛltə/
(maths) an incremental change in a variable, as Δ or δ
(transformation) a measurable change in an organisation or person
agent
/ˈeɪdʒənt/
a person that produces a particular effect or change
a person or thing that acts or has the power to act
= measure of transformation
= operator, catalyst of transformationAGENT
digital
/ˈdɪdʒɪt(ə)l/
(tech) a signal transmission that conveys information through a series of coded pulses in 1s & 0s
(business) digital business is the creation of new business designs by blurring the digital and physical
worlds
= digital businessDIGITAL
