Feeding 9 billion

Feeding 9+ Billion

Prof. Lindsay Falvey FTSE

www.ifpri.org/millionsfed

www.ifpri.org/millionsfedRunning out of land

www.ifpri.org/millionsfedwww.ifpri.org/millionsfed

What is Changing?

Environmental Change

4

www.ifpri.org/millionsfedwww.ifpri.org/millionsfedHumanity’s greatest challenge is to produce 60% more food by 2050 without destroying

the environment

800 million hungry; 1.2 billion extreme poverty

9 Billion need 50% more food and energy

Increasing risks of floods and droughts

www.ifpri.org/millionsfedImportance to australia

www.ifpri.org/millionsfedA Confused verbal marketplace


◄

www.ifpri.org/millionsfedwww.ifpri.org/millionsfedModern food systems are dynamic,

complex and fundamentally important to security and survival



Famine drives conflict

Map: UK MoD


Heightened Risks

13

www.ifpri.org/millionsfedwww.ifpri.org/millionsfedDRIVERS OF FOOD SUPPLY

14


Food policy developments in 2015-16 Sustainable Development GoalsGlobal goals that call for local action

COP21Commitments to slow GHG emissions

WTO ministerial meetingPledged to eliminate distortionary trade policiesLow oil & food prices

Oil: Lowest in 11 yearsFood: Falling for 4th year

Refugee crisisOver 8 million Syrians food

insecure +

Slow economic growthDriven by slowdown in emerging economies

2015Climate changeEl Niño: Ethiopia’s

worst drought in 30 years

Source: Fan 2016

www.ifpri.org/millionsfedHistorical Modes of food production


Technology(Sachs, 2015)

17

www.ifpri.org/millionsfedTechnology is critical for a global food system in sustainable development

New food system

Efficient

Inclusive

Climate-smart

Sustainable

Nutrition- and health-driven

Business-friendly

Over half of SDGs relate to food security and nutrition

Source: Fan 2016


CGIAR: 10,000 staff, 96 countries


Wheat Rust: 117 million hectares protected; >60 million households food secure

Asia 1965-85: income up 190%; food security for 1.8 billion

Improved Maize: now 75% of land under cereal cultivation

Cassava Mosaic Virus & Mealybug: yields up 40%; 29 million fed

Re-Greening the Sahel: > 5 million hectares transformed; 3 million additional people fed

Argentina Pampas: 22 million hectares sustainable; world leader in soybean production

Indo-Gangetic Plain: 1.8 million hectares; income gains $340 per household

Bangladesh: 67% reduction in well costs; doubled rice production; 22 million more fed

China: Yield increases of 15-31%; 63% of rice is hybrids; 60 million more fed

Tilapia Philippines: increased 186%; benefitted 19-23 million consumers

Land-tenure reform in China 1978-84: grain up 34%; incomes by 137%

CGIAR: Examples of Impact


ILRI Offices

Main campuses: Nairobi and Addis Ababa Offices in 16 other countries

www.ifpri.org/millionsfedAnimal source foods: 5 of 6 highest value global commodities (total value of 5=USD715

billion)

FAOSTAT 2015(values for 2013)

Cow milk has overtaken rice


Huge increases over 2005/7 amountsof cereals, dairy and meat will be needed by 2050

From 2bn−3bntonnes cereals each year

From 664m−1bntonnes dairy each year

From 258m−460m tonnes meat each year

More Livestock Products Demand


Connecting the Milk GridSmallholder dairy in India

1970–1996

• Challenge:

• Innovation:• Impact:

Author: Kenda Cunningham

Dairy demand outpacing supply; smallholders unable to access national dairy markets

Creation of a national milk grid and organization of dairy cooperatives to improve production and marketing

India becomes a top global dairy producer; incomes double for 9 million direct beneficiaries, 73% of whom are landless farmers

ND

DB


Conquering the Cattle PlagueThe global effort to eradicate rinderpest1950–2001

• Challenge:

• Innovation:• Impact:

Authors: Peter Roeder and Karl Rich

Highly contagious livestock disease killing 95% of the animals it infects as it spreads across Asia and Africa

Coordinated global effort to develop improved vaccine, surveillance systems, and protect livestock-based livelihoods

Only time an infectious disease has been eradicated since smallpox; 40 million poor livestock keepers benefitted

Pet

er R

oede

r


www.ifpri.org/millionsfedNOVEL VACCINE PRODUCTION

Infection Immune response to infection

Immune to re-infection

Candidate vaccine antigens (antigen discovery)

Proof-of-concept vaccine trials(antigen delivery)

Antibodies and

immune T-cells

Infection or vaccine trials

Both approaches

www.ifpri.org/millionsfedwww.ifpri.org/millionsfedNew tools allow us to look in new places for sources of variation – including wildlife

Comparative gene network and sequence analysis allows to ask new kinds of questions about genomes – eg “what is different about this (group of) species compared to all other mammals”

“traditional” linkage mapping requires crosses – so initial discovery is limited to variants within a speciesCow NDama KFITRRPSLKTLQEKGLIKDQIFGSPLHTLCEREKSTVPRFVKQCIEAVEK Cow Boran KFITRRPSLKTLQEKGLIKDQIFGSHLHTLCEREKSTVPRFVKQCIEAVEK Human KFISRRPSLKTLQEKGLIKDQIFGSHLHTVCEREHSTVPWFVKQCIEAVEK Pig KFITRRPSLKTLQEKGLIKDQIFGSHLHTVCERENSTVPRFVKQCIEAVEK Chicken KFISRRPSLKTLQEKGLIKDQIFGSHLHLVCEHENSTVPQFVRQCIKAVER Salmon KFISRRPSMKTLQEKGIIKDRVFGCHLLALCEREGTTVPKFVRQCVEAVEK

www.ifpri.org/millionsfedwww.ifpri.org/millionsfedHow Will We Feed Nine Billion?

•Sustained research inputs

•De-commoditizing traded food

•National food security planning


30

Acknowledgements:•ILRI, IFPRI, CGIAR•Julian Cribb•J. Sachs•Those named on slides

Thank you