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The computer gaming industry has begun to export powerful products and technologies from its initial entertainment roots to a number of “serious” industries. Games are being adopted for defense, medicine, architecture, education, city planning, and government applications. Each of these industries is already served by an established family of companies that typically do not use games or the technologies that support them. The rapid growth in the power of game technologies and the growing social acceptance of these technologies has created an environment in which these are displacing other industry-specific computer hardware and software suites. This paper introduces five specific forces that compel industries to adopt game technologies for their core products and services. These five forces are computer hardware costs, game software power, social acceptance, other industry successes, and native industry experimentation. Together these influence the degree and rapidity at which game technologies are adopted in a number of industries. The military simulation industry is just one of the many industries that are being impacted by these technologies and the five forces are affecting it just as they are many other industries. The paper extends the concepts of simulation industry disruption that were introduced by the author in the Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation. Earlier papers have applied the innovation and disruption model of Clayton Christenson to the simulation industry and demonstrated that the industry was in the “process innovation” phase of Utterback’s innovation lifecycle model. This paper defines the forces that are driving these changes and indicates why these forces are undeniable and will permanently change the landscape of virtual and constructive military simulation products.
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Game Technology EntryTactical Iraqi
Americas Army
IEWTPT Tactical Questioning
Full Spectrum Warrior
AMBUSH!
Market-Years
Pro
du
ct P
erfo
rman
ce
Progre
ss due to
sustaining technologies
Performance demanded at the low end of the market
Performance demanded at the high end of the market
Progre
ss due to
disruptiv
e technologies
Market disruption opportunity
Disruptive Innovation Model(Christensen, 1992 & 1997)
Squeezed OutNicheHigh End
Share Low End
Own the Market
High-end Customer DemandD 0
= Virt
ual Tra
iner
SIMNET
CCTT
OneSAFOLIVE
D 1 = P
C Games
America’s Army
Spearhead
Market-Years
Pro
du
ct P
erfo
rman
ceFigure 2
Low-end Customer Demand
Simulation Industry Disruption(Smith, 2005 & 2006)
Pro
du
ct P
erfo
rman
ceHigh-end Customer Demand
D 0 = V
irtual T
rainer
SIMNET
CCTT
OneSAFOLIVE
D 1 = P
C Games
America’s Army
Spearhead
D 2 = C
onsole Games
XboxLive
D 3 = W
eb Serv
ices
WBT
FSW
Market-Years
Figure 3
Low-end Customer Demand
D 4 = W
ireless S
ystems
Multiple Waves of Disruption(Smith, 2005 & 2006)
Industry Success
•Success of the technology in other industries
•e.g. Military Training, Chemistry Experiments,
Corporate Training, Architecture Design
Hardware Costs•Significant reduction in
computer hardware costs required to support game-
based applications•e.g. 10X Reduction for PCs
•100X for Consoles
Experimentation
•In-industry experimentation with the technology
identifies areas for useful application
Social Acceptance
•Growing social acceptance of game-rooted solutions for
other industries•Driven by Maturing
Gamers, Social Prevalence, Media Image
Adoption Pattern
•Niche Area•Unregulated Spaces•Certified Applications
•Recommended Practice•Mandatory Standard
Software Power
•Significant power of game-based software applications e.g. Intelligent Agents, 3D Worlds, Accessible GUI, Physics Models, Global
Network, Persistent Worlds
Five Forces of Game Technology Adoption
Mandatory Standard
Recommended Practice
Certified Applications
Unregulated Spaces
Niche Area
Stages of Adoption
8
Conclusion
• The financial and technical advantages of technologies originating in the game industry are undeniable and will continue to grow
• Industrial need for better training tools will drive further adoption of these technologies
– Specific industry acceptance levels may require separation or usurpation of the ideas (e.g. medical)
• The five forces are observed and actual
• The adoption pattern from “Niche Area” to “Mandatory Standard” is speculative
• Never underestimate the immovability of established bureaucracies and “old experts”
“a new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it.”
Max PlanckFounder of
Quantum TheoryNobel Prize in
Physics, 1918
Quote from: Kuhn, T. (1970). The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
