Forecasting commercial services from IrSOLaV - Luis Martin (IRSOLAV)

Applications of Solar Radiation Forecasting, 11 June 2013 Ciemat


IrSOLaV company profile Methodology IrSOLaV products and activities

IrSOLaV data time series and reports IrSOLaV maps IrSOLaV data services IrSOLaV plant performance IrSOLaV short term forecasting IrSOLaV nowcasting

Research and Development IrSOLaV partnership

http://images.google.es/imgres?imgurl=http://www.renovables-energia.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/central-termosolar.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.renovables-energia.com/2009/09/centrales-termosolares/&usg=__cU7db45RQgKV5ZTMZUTsPmKhvYo=&h=281&w=450&sz=36&hl=es&start=4&um=1&tbnid=lSnuat32dc7SeM:&tbnh=79&tbnw=127&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dcentral%2Btermosolar%26hl%3Des%26um%3D1

http://images.google.es/imgres?imgurl=http://extremadurasolohayuna.files.wordpress.com/2008/12/termosolar.jpg&imgrefurl=http://extremadurasolohayuna.wordpress.com/2008/12/01/extremadura-el-paraiso-de-las-energias-renovables/&usg=__W2b0LLQYsEcaHkUzoTu-6ctHDUM=&h=480&w=640&sz=60&hl=es&start=3&um=1&tbnid=MogdBVirkjbkEM:&tbnh=103&tbnw=137&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dcentral%2Btermosolar%26hl%3Des%26um%3D1

http://images.google.es/imgres?imgurl=http://ocio.quitua.com.mx/blogs/media/Paneles%2520Solares.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.taringa.net/posts/downloads/1158509/Proyecto-Fotovoltaico.html&usg=__-b_uTWYcxz4PHg9q5kVkumb727w=&h=332&w=468&sz=54&hl=es&start=11&um=1&tbnid=e8wUMZe57sIXhM:&tbnh=91&tbnw=128&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dcentral%2Bfotovoltaica%26hl%3Des%26um%3D1

http://images.google.es/imgres?imgurl=http://www.energiasolartermica.biz/fotos/discos-stirling.JPG&imgrefurl=http://www.energiasolartermica.biz/centrales-solares-termoelectricas/&usg=__c0OgHtYXQ2iLugxW6v65DAghAoE=&h=219&w=264&sz=15&hl=es&start=8&um=1&tbnid=vxPr-IoefpuhbM:&tbnh=93&tbnw=112&prev=/images%3Fq%3Ddisco%2Bparabolico%2Bstirling%26hl%3Des%26um%3D1


IrSOLaV is a spin-off company founded in 2007.

Initially formed by researchers with broad

experience in Solar Energy and solar radiation

knowledge.

Methodology for solar radiation derived from

satellite information.

Consulting services on solar resource

characterization and prediction.

Involved into several relevant R&D initiatives: Task

46 of IEA/SHC, COST action on solar radiation and

wind forecast.






IrSOLaV have participated as INDEPENDENT

consultant and data provider in more than 3.4GW

of PV and CSP solar energy projects.

IrSOLaV customers are governments, main

financial institutions, project developers and plant

operators in 4 continents.

IrSOLaV is currently headquartered in Madrid with

offices in Santiago de Chile, New Delhi and soon in

China.






HEAD OFFICE

Adress: Calle Santiago Grisolia 2 (PTM) Tres Cantos -

28760 - Madrid - Spain

IRSOLAV-ACIRA SOLAR INDIA

Adress: 63 Daryagani New Delhi 110002 - India

IRSOLAV-WE CONSULTING CHILE

Adress: Estoril 120 Oficina 809, Las Condes, Santiago -

Chile


Inputs to algorithm for prediction and estimation solar radiation from satellite images are:

ESRA, SOLIS, REST2 clear sky models.

DirIndex to obtain DNI from GHI.

Global Forecast System and MACC global models.

Information about atmospheric constituents. AOD and other components from several satellites and models: MODIS, MISR, MACC, AERONET and NCEP.

Cloud information from geostationary satellite

http://images.google.es/imgres?imgurl=http://www.meteosort.com/meteosort/img/met_meteosat.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.meteosort.com/meteosort/cas/q_d_6.htm&usg=__0KPoEoxDE5i0PxjNuwueL5NTtzM=&h=308&w=400&sz=32&hl=es&start=9&um=1&tbnid=idf9tfVN8ORwyM:&tbnh=95&tbnw=124&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dmeteosat%26hl%3Des%26rlz%3D1T4GGIH_esES265ES282%26um%3D1

http://images.google.es/imgres?imgurl=http://concurso.cnice.mec.es/cnice2006/material121/unidad3/imagenes/meteosat7_screen.jpg&imgrefurl=http://concurso.cnice.mec.es/cnice2006/material121/unidad3/sat_mete.htm&usg=__pbhk8MN5KFSDRoQh-QlFuKIlCbg=&h=350&w=350&sz=91&hl=es&start=10&um=1&tbnid=y-zgpru1vZEsbM:&tbnh=120&tbnw=120&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dmeteosat%26hl%3Des%26rlz%3D1T4GGIH_esES265ES282%26um%3D1

http://images.google.es/imgres?imgurl=http://www.volker-quaschning.de/fotos/messung/pyrheliometer.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.volker-quaschning.de/fotos/messung/pyrheliometer_e.html&usg=__l4dsTVEAsbqnylT2Ft8OnuVOccA=&h=480&w=640&sz=25&hl=es&start=2&um=1&tbnid=vpe3HW8OczUUsM:&tbnh=103&tbnw=137&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dpyrheliometer%26hl%3Des%26rlz%3D1T4GGIH_esES265ES282%26um%3D1


MPG 1994-2005 and MSG 2006 to the present. EUROPE, AFRICA and MIDDLE EAST. MPG: 5x5km2 spatial and 30 minutes

temporal resolution. MSG: 1x1km2 spatial and 15 minutes

temporal resolution.


MPG 1999 to the present covering MIDDLE EAST and ASIA. MPG: 5x5km2 spatial and 30 minutes



GOES 1999 to 2013 covering NORHT, CENTRAL and SOUTH AMERICA GOES: 1x1km2 spatial and 30 minutes



MTSAT 2012 to the present covering EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC MPG: 1x1km2 spatial and 30 minutes



Time series of solar irradiance (GHI and DNI) from satellite images covering all the planet.

Solar resource analysis reports with statistical

study for the long term.

Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) of solar radiation components and meteorological variables.

Consulting services on measuring solar radiation and quality reports of solar radiation measured on ground stations.









Monitoring performance of PV plants and radiometric measurements

VirtualPIR, ftp, email, database

IrSOLaV near-realtime Satellite Images Processing






Analyis of energy production of the plant using SAM, TRSYS (STEC-library), etc..

Report on energy generation with long term analysis (probabilities P50, P70, P90)


NWP global model GFS NCEP model.

3 hours temporal resolution 0.5º spatial resolution

Statistical post-processing

(Downscaling) Site local predictions

Temporal interpolation with clear sky model to obtain

GHI

DirIndex Model to obtain DNI from GHI

MACC ECMWF model. AOD and WV predictions 1 hourly predictions


Predictions of hourly solar radiation with a temporal horizon of 72 hours.

Predictions are done 4 times per day at: 00:00 UTC 06:00 UTC 12:00 UTC 18:00 UTC

Reliability of more than 99%.

Delivered by FTP, mail or accessible in our

web portal www.solarexplorer.info


Block matching algorithm

Cloud index to Solar Radiation MACC ECMWF model. AOD and WV 1 hourly DirIndex Model to obtain DNI from GHI

Forecast cloud index


Predictions of 15-60 minutes solar radiation with a temporal horizon of 6 hours.

Spatial resolution 1 km.

Predictions are updated every hour.

Delivered by FTP, mail or accessible in our web portal www.solarexplorer.info

http://www.solarexplorer.info/


Task 46 of Solar Heating and Cooling (IEA). 2011-2015

Solar Resource Assessment and Forecasting

Activity C.1: Short-term forecasting (up to 7 days ahead)

Activity C.2: Integration of solar forecasts into operations

COST Action WIRE 1002

Benchmarking of PV predictions

DNICast 7th Framework Programme


Global Forecasters: spin-off from CIEMAT. Wind energy services.

Geonica: provision and installation of meteorological stations to measure solar radiation.


Web: www.irsolav.com

E-mail: [email protected]

IrSOLaV, S.L. c/ Santiago Grisolía, 2

Parque Científico de Madrid

28760 Tres Cantos, Madrid

Tfno. +34 911263612 / +34 677740918

Technology

Forecasting commercial services from IrSOLaV - Luis Martin (IRSOLAV)