©2011 Dr. Nares Damrongchai 1

Foresight Activities in Thailand and the Asia-Pacific RegionDr. Nares DamrongchaiExecutive DirectorAPEC Center for Technology Foresight

@ The 4th International Conference on ForesightTokyo, 9 March 2011

Photograph from iStockphoto.com

Nares Damrongchai @APEC Center for Technology Foresight 2

APEC Member Economies

APEC Official Observers• Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) Secretariat• Pacific Economic Cooperation Council (PECC)• Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) © 2008 APEC Secretariat

1

Low-Carbon Society

Beyond 2050

Nares DamrongchaiAPEC Center for Technology Foresight

Futures of Low Carbon SocietyNares Damrongchai

Real-time Delphi

• 78 from 5 regions (Af, Am, As, Eu, Oc) invited

• 23-28 from 3 regions (28.2 - 35.9 %) answered

• Asia 21.8 - 26.9 %• Thailand 7-9 out of 23-28• Gender (male 15-19,

female 6-9)

5Photograph from iStockphoto.com

Futures of Low Carbon SocietyNares Damrongchai

Climate change and its impact

Migration, rural life, and natural resources

Society and health

Trade of goods and services

Housing, construction, urban life, transportation

http://www.lcs2050.com/

Participating member economies

1. Hong Kong, China2. Malaysia3. Korea4. Indonesia5. Philippines6. New Zealand7. Canada8. Japan9. Australia10. Vietnam11. Chinese Taipei12. Singapore13. China14. Russia15. Thailand16. United States

• Macao, China• United Kingdom• Germany

APEC

Non-APEC

2

ASEAN’s Future of Science, Technology, and Innovation: 2015 and Beyond

Source: World Bank, 2010

ASEA

N ASEAN’sKnowledgeEconomyIndex

No. of votes

Pre-workshop vote for prioritization

05

101520253035404550 47 46

39

29

1915 15

10

Krabi Initiative 2010:Science Technology and Innovation (STI) for a Competitive , Sustainable and Inclusive ASEAN

STI Enculturation

Public-Private Partnership

Platform

Bottom-of-the -Pyramid (BOP)

Focus

Youth-focused Innovation

STI for Green Society

Organisational restructure for a meaningful delivery of STI agenda in ASEAN

ASEAN Innovation for Global Market

Green Technology

Digital Economy, New Media & Social Network

Science and Innovation for Life

Biodiversity for Health & Wealth

Energy Security

Water Management

Food Security

Thematic Tracks

Develop mechanisms to pursue partnerships and cooperation with other stakeholders in STI

Paradigm Shifts

ASEAN 2015 – Vision of ASEAN Leaders

Rationale Roles of STI – A Balance between Competitiveness and Human Development (People-oriented STI)

Reinventing ASEAN Scientific Community for a Meaningful Delivery of STI Agenda in ASEAN

Courses of Action

Enhance ASEAN Plan of Action on S&T for 2012-2015 and leverage the recommendations of the Krabi Retreat for development of future APAST beyond 2015

Implement monitoring and evaluation mechanism for the implementation of STI thematic tracks

Source: National Science Technology and Innovation Policy Office - Thailand, December 2010

Krabi Initiative 2010

• Adopted by ASEAN’s Science Ministers in Krabi, Thailand on 17 December 2010• Set the basis for the region’s work plan from 2015- on science, technology and innovation (STI) for a competitive , sustainable and inclusive ASEAN

Photo from Flickr.comAll rights reserved by faha_ska

focusing on bottom-of-the-pyramid,youth, and green society

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Future Innovative Cities in ASEAN

Urban Innovation:

• Urban hubs and local links (NESTA)

City, Innovation, and Sustainable Development

• Innovation and Cities (Johnson)

Economic geography of Innovation• Geography of Hi-tech firms (Maryann

Feldman)

Still these models are limited to

western, developed economies

No insight into many other aspects of

innovations in cities in developing

economies

But in reality, innovations are everywhere in

cities

The Project in a Nutshell

Jakarta, Indonesia

Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

Bangkok, Thailand

Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

Manila, Philippines

Singapore

Phase 1 PAST

Phase 2 Present

Phase 3 Future

Evolution of innovation system in Southeast

Asian context

City innovation system in the contemporary

Southeast Asian Megacities

City innovation foresight, paradigm and

policy development

Designing “City Innovation System”

CISIndividualSocial group

KnowledgeWisdom

SpaceCognitive

Physical

Information

Framework conditionsLegislation

From “OpenSpace” Workshop, Bangkok

From “OpenSpace” Workshop, Bangkok

From “OpenSpace” Workshop, Bangkok

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APEC Center for Technology Foresight 22

Thailand in 2020

APEC Center for Technology Foresight 23

Traditional Thai Mackerel

Dynamic Mekong Shrimp

Violent Meat Soup

LessonsLearned

“People-to-people interaction is as important as the

analysis of data and patterns”

“Importance of proper

knowledge management

and capacity building”

“Different generations

respond differently to the future”

Informal and inclusive scenarios approach could be a potentially innovative and productive

The End