Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Global Warming
Dr. Gunwant Joshi
Chief ChemistRegional Laboratory,
Indore
andClimate Change
What is global warming? Global warming is
the rise in earth’s atmospheric temperatures due to the Green House Effect of the Green House Gases Such as Carbon dioxide, Water vapors, Methane, Nitrous Oxides ,Ozone & chloro-fluorocarbons etc.
What is Green House Effect?
ENHANCED GREENHOUSE EFFECT
Climate Change
.. likely to be the most important environmental challenge of the 21st century; has enormous human, social, ecological, and economic implications
Image Source: UNFCCC
Causes of Global Warming
The Volcanoes and Forest Fires are the natural causes of Global Warming from the Pre- historic times
Causes of Global Warming
increase the concentration of
Green House Gases in the atmosphere
The Various Anthropogenic activities that
Evidence of global warmingEvidence of global warming
A: Physical Evidence• Rise in atmospheric temperature (land & sea)• Shifting and shrinking of cooling period with prolonged
warmer duration and hastened spring season• Rise in sea water level and melting of glaciers• Occurrence of climatic extreme & natural disaster• Spatial pattern of climate (rain fall & temperature) has
changed markedly• Number of cloudy days have reduced drastically• pH of sea water has decreased by 0.13-0.35.
Evidence of global warmingEvidence of global warming
B: Biological Evidence• Early blossoming of trees—mango,cherry
• Appearance of grasses in Antarctic
• Changes in cropping pattern from wheat to maize
• Geographical shifting of temperate fruits toward high latitude
• Causality in Europe due to high temperature
• Vulnerability of frog to devastating fungus
• Killing of large Dimb tree population in Senegal
• Spatial shifting of marine fish population
• Northward movement of ticks and bleaching of corals
Kilimanjaro Example
Emissions From Thermal Power Station
51%
Dirty Energy Killing 1.6 mill Poor/Year
Vehicular Pollution
16%
Environmental Pollution due to War
MSW- Landfill
•CO2, Methane emission
MSW - Landfill•Encroaches Cultivable land
•Destroy Tree cover
Paddy Cultivation
Source of Methane
33.5 MT Per Year
Hydel Project
Destruction of Carbon Sink
Excessive Evaporation
Rad
iatio
ns th
roug
h ga
p in
Ozo
ne
Lay
er
Global Warming And Jet Streams
• Speed 50 – 500 kmph at 11000mts.
•Albedo & GW causes changes in direction and speed -Meandering.
•Causes changes in US Climate pattern - NASA.
2 to 5 km thick
Effect of Jet Streams
EARTH
Meandering Jet Streams
Suction Affect
Suction AffectCauses Change in Direction
Ht 11000 mts
Normal Jet Streams
Cyclones &
Storms
Cyclones &
Storms
Warm Ocean Current
In Deep Layer Cooled Ocean Current
GW Ice Cap Melts
Huge Fresh Water
Decreases Salinity
Water doesn't Sink
Ocean Currents Disrupted
In Upper Layer
Disruption of Ocean Currents Due to GW
Bring Wrmth
Earth
29%
71%
land
water
910 Crore(2012)
650 Crore(2006)
256 Crore(1950)
256 Crore(1950)
100 Crore(1800)
100 Crore(1800)
2.5X
6.5X
9.1X
Increased Pressure on resources. Increased Emission of GHG GW
Water on Earth
97 % Saline
3 % Fresh Water
70 % Ice Caps
20 % Under Ground
10 % Lakes &Rivers
Types of impacts due to Global warming:
Spreading of disease
Early and late arrival of seasons
Plant/animal range & pop. changes
Downpours, heavy snowfalls
Droughts and Forest fires
> 20 percent Polar ice cap melted
(Courtesy NASA)
Antarctica Melting in 30 years
Large icebergs float Sea off Greenland
Global Warming and Retreat of Apple Line in Himachal Pradesh
12
3
4
Snow Line
Apple Line
Retreating Himalayan Glaciers - Effect Of Global Warming
Dokrini Glacier in the Garhwal retarded 66 ft in 1988. The Gangotri Glacier is retreating 98ft per year. Loss of all central & eastern Himalayan Glaciers by 2035.Himalayan glaciers source for Ganges and Indus - 500 million people depend (about 1/10 world pop).
Water Availability will be reduced by 33%
…..Will be flooded and then cry for water.
Haridwar Varanasi
IndoGangeetic
Plain
The result of Global Warming over…..
48 Crore People37 % Irrigation
Marine Drive Mumbai
Chowpati Beach
Wankhede Stadium
By 21005 to 6 Crore
Coastal Pop.
What makes India more susceptible to Climate Change?
• Densely populated (rural and urban) - substantial poverty.
• Large coastal populations
• Diverse climatic zones
• Diverse economy with important climate dependant sectors– agriculture and fisheries
• Many low-lying areas susceptible to extreme events
Why should We be So much Concerned about Global
Warming?•Global Warming will cause•Rise in atmospheric temperatures making climate harsher.
•Melting of Polar ice caps causing Sea level rise of about a meter.
•Change the Seasonal cycles and Cropping patterns permanently.
01
Why should We be So much Concerned about Global
Warming?• Glaciers to recede backwards reducing
the flow of snow fed rivers.
• Sea level rise will cause many great cities such as New York & Mumbai to submerge under the sea.
• Many Iceland nations such Vanuatu, Maldives and Fiji will vanish.
• Colorful coral bleach to death.
02
Report written by Sir Nicholas Stern for the UK government (published 2006)
COCO² and temperature rise and temperature rise
Carbon emissions have raised global temperatures by 0.5°C.
There is a 50 % chance that global temperatures could rise by 5°C.
Environmental impactEnvironmental impact
Melting glaciers will increase flood risk, then drought.
Crop yields will decline, particularly in Africa.
Rising sea levels could displace 200 million people.
Up to 40% of species could become extinct.
There will be more frequent extreme weather patterns.
Economic impactEconomic impact A rise of A rise of 2-3°C2-3°C could reduce global GDP by 3%. could reduce global GDP by 3%.
A rise of 5A rise of 5°C°C could cost up to 10% of global GDP. could cost up to 10% of global GDP.
The poorest countries would lose disproportionately more.The poorest countries would lose disproportionately more.
What is meant by Strategy?
Knowing where
you are?
Our
Iceberg
Is Melting
where you want to go
Knowing
gogreen
having the capability to respond to change on the way
Knowing how you are going to get there
Causes of Global Warming
Earth's most abundant greenhouse gases are:---
• water vapor • carbon dioxide • methane • nitrous oxide • ozone • CFCs
Causes of Global Warming
contribution to the greenhouse effect
• water vapor : 36–72% • carbon dioxide : 9–26% • methane : 4–9% • ozone : 3–7% The major non-gas contributor
to the Earth's greenhouse effect,Clouds, also absorb and emit Infra red radiations
Warmest 15 years:2007,2008,2009
2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006, 2000, 1999,1998,1997,1995,1990
CO2 Emissions 1950-2002
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
1800
MtC
USA ChinaIndia JapanBrazil KoreaAustralia
Current COCurrent CO22 Emissions and Emissions and ContributionsContributions
CO2 Emissions Per Capita, 2002
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Tons
per
Cap
ita
The Global Warming Potential (GWP)
depends on both the efficiency of the molecule as a greenhouse gas and its atmospheric lifetime. GWP is measured relative to the same mass of CO2 and evaluated
for a specific timescale.
Green House Gas Atmospheric Life time GWP• Carbon dioxide 10,000 years 1 • Methane 12 ± 3 years 72 • Nitrous oxide 114 years 289• CFC-12 100 years 11000• HCFC-22 12 years 5160• Tetrafluoromethane 50,000 years 5210• Sulphur hexafluoride 3,200 years 16300• Nitrogen trifluoride 740 years 12300
Why should We be So much Concerned about Global Warming?
How to contain
Global Warming?• Only way to meet this challenge is
to Cap & reduce the emission of Green House Gases
How to reduce GHG?
Cut on the Sources:
Industries, Vehicular Emissions,
Paddy fields, Wetlands, Live stocks,
Increase the Sinks:
Forests, Grasslands,Oceans
Mitigation of Global Warming :Kyoto Protocol
The world's primary international agreement on reducing the greenhouse gas emissions to their respective targeted base line year, an amendment to the UNFCCC negotiated in 1997. The Protocol now covers more than 160 countries and over 55 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions.
Greenhouse Gas Baseline Year• Carbon dioxide (C02) 1990 • Methane (CH4) 1990 • Nitrous Oxide (N2O) 1990 • Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) 1995 • Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) 1995 • Sulfur Hexafluoride (SF6) 1995
Adaptation to Global Warming
A wide variety of measures have been suggested
such as the installation of Air-conditioning equipment up to
major infrastructure projects
Abandonment of settlements threatened by sea level rise.
Measures including
Water Conservation
Changes to Agricultural Practices
Construction of Flood Defenses
Changes to medical care
Interventions to protect threatened species
Some emerging trends in fighting Global Warming?
Clean Development Mechanism!
Use Of Alternate Energy Sources
Bio gas Plant Solar Energy
CLEAN!ECO-FRIENDLY!NEVER ENDING!
Wind Energy
Carbon Sink
Plantation Activity Protect Forest
The IPCC Special Report on Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage
CO2 capture and storage system
Fuels
Processes
Storage options
Examples of existing CO2 capture installations
(Courtesy of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries)
Geological storage
Ocean storage
Mineral carbonation
Global Warming It’s Worse Than We Thought
Conservative Estimates• Scientists are temperamentally conservative • Almost all their original estimates about the
effects of global warming have underplayed the actual measured consequences
• When their original estimates have been re- measured against actual changes, the effects have most often been more dire than they originally predicted
greenplanet!
NEWINITIATIVES
Appliance Power (Watts)
CO2
(gm/Hr)
Light Bulb 60 39
CFL Lamp 11 7
TV Set 80 to 300 52 – 195
Washing Mach. 500 – 3000 325 – 1950
Power Consumption and Equivalent CO2 emission*
*Based on Power Plant Data of the Electricity grid
One can help in Reducing GHG Emissions
1. Use of Water efficiently - Stop wastage, reduce pollution, stop
leakages.
2. Turn waste into manure - Food waste to manure.
3. Reduce , reuse and recycle -Newspapers, containers, household
articles.
4. Burn the fuel efficiently - Gas burners, car engine, public
transport.
5. Save energy in cooking
- Pot size, cookers, boiling.
6. Save power on appliances
- Switch off habit, Sun dry cloths etc.
One can help in Reducing GHG Emissions
What I Will Do From Today
Will not waste Water – Drinking, Bathing, Gardening, Washing.
Will close Taps if overflowing.
Report Water leakage.
Will Switch off fan and Bulbs if not in use.
Will not keep engine idling beyond 1 minutes.
Will Walk if possible and Car Pooling.
Will Leave no food in the plate.
Reception/Barat in day time -5 mn Unit Saving.
Press harderand faster
About IPCC• Founded 1988 by UNEP and WMO
• No research, no monitoring, no recommendations
• Only assessment of peer-reviewed literature
• Authors academic, industrial and NGO experts
• Reviews by independent Experts and Governments
• Policy relevant, but NOT policy prescriptive
• Full report and technical summary: accepted by governments without change
• Summary for policymakers: government approval
Aftermath of Kyoto Protocol
At the Kyoto meeting on Global Climate Change, the United States which is the largest emitter of GHG, agreed to reduce emissions of six greenhouses gases from a given base line.
The U.S. is ready to reduce by 7% the average annual tons of carbon equivalent released during the 5-year period 2008-2012 which is not confirming to the targeted levels
Only two omissions : US & Kazakhstan
The treaty expires in 2012.International talks began in May 2007 on a future treaty to succeed the current one. The UN negotiations schedule a key meeting at
Copenhagen in December 2009.
Mitigation of Global Warming
Many environmental groups encourage Individual action
as well as community and regional actions. Others suggest a quota on worldwide fossil fuel
production looking to direct link between fossil fuel production and CO2 emissions
There has also been business action on Climate changeuse of alternative fuel. EU Emission Trading SchemeAustralia announced its‘Carbon Pollution Reduction
Scheme’ in 2008US President Barack Obama has announced plans to
introduce an ‘economy wide Cap and trade’
Mitigation of Global WarmingThe IPCC's Working Group III is responsible for crafting reports on mitigation of global warming and the costs and benefits of different approaches. The 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report concludes that no one technology or sector can be completely responsible for mitigating future warming. There are key practices and technologies in various sectors, such as energy supply
transportation industry
agriculture that should be implemented
It is estimated that stabilization of Carbon dioxide equivalents between 445 and 710 ppm by 2030 will result in between a 0.6 percent increase and three percent decrease in global gross domestic product
Costs
Two ways of expressing costs:• Additional electricity costs
– Energy policymaking community
• CO2 avoidance costs– Climate policymaking
community
Different outcomes:
0.01 - 0.05 US$/kWh
20* - 270 US$/tCO2 avoided
(with EOR: 0*– 240 US$/tCO2
avoided)
* low-end: capture-ready, low transport cost, revenues from storage: 360 MtCO2/yr
CCS component costsCarbon Capture & Storage component Cost range
Capture from a power plant 15 - 75 US $ / tCO2 net
captured
Capture from gas processing or ammonia production
5 - 55 US $ / tCO2 net captured
Capture from other industrial sources 25 - 115 US $ / tCO2 net
captured
Transportation 1 - 8 US $ / tCO2 transported
per 250 km
Geological storage 0.5 - 8 US $ / tCO2 injected
Ocean storage 5 - 30 US $ / tCO2 injected
Mineral carbonation 50 - 100 US $ / tCO2
mineralised
Factors influencing earth’s climate:
Earth’s
Climate
Solar Radiation
Earth Sun Geometry Stellar
Dust
VolcanicActivity
MountainBuilding
ContinentalDrift
Ocean HeatExchange
AtmosphericChemistry
AtmosphericAlbedo
SurfaceAlbedo
Jet Stream
Ratio of Scattered : Incident Radiation
Ocean Currents
Ozone Layer Depletion
Health, safety, environment risks
• Ocean storage:– pH change
– Mortality of ocean organisms
– Ecosystem consequences
– Chronic effects unknown
• Mineral carbonation:– Mining and disposal of resulting products
– Some of it may be re-used
Qualifying CO2 sources
• Large stationary point sources
• High CO2 concentration in the waste, flue gas or by-product stream (purity)
• Pressure of CO2 stream
• Distance from suitable storage sites
Global large stationary CO2 sources withemissions of more than 0.1 MtCO2/year
Capture of CO2
Planned and current locations of geological storage
Current locations of geological storage
Project name
Country Injection start
Daily injection (tCO2/day)
Total planned storage (tCO2)
Reservoir type
Weyburn Canada 2000 3,000 - 5,000 20,000,000 EOR
In Salah Algeria 2004 3,000 - 4,000 17,000,000 Gas field
Sleipner Norway 1996 3,000 20,000,000 Saline formation
K12B Netherlands 2004 100 8,000,000 EGR
Frio United States 2004 177 1,600 Saline formation
Effects Will Last for a 1000 Years
• If carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are stopped at around 450 ppm, the effects will last at least 1,000 yrs.
A 2009 study found that changes in surface temperature, rainfall,and sea level are largely irreversible
Ocean Acidification• Too much CO2 in the oceans leads to increased
acidification; as result, marine life starts to die
• This so-called 'tipping point' had been predicted to occur when atmospheric CO2 levels hit 550 parts per million, around the year 2060
• Current thinking has revised that tipping point to far lower atmospheric CO2 levels – at around 450 ppm; the goal set by many scientists to try to attain in near future.
Nitrogen trifluoride – A gas from the manufacture of liquid crystal displays
- a green house gas that traps about 17,000 times more heat than carbon dioxide, wasn’t even counted in the 1997 Kyoto protocols
– 2006 estimate was 1,200 MT in the atmosphere
– 2008 estimate was 5,400 MT in the atmosphere
-NASA scientist says
melting ice will cause
a 50 cm rise by 2100
– Rate of ice loss from
Greenland has tripled
since 2004
Dr. James Hansen (NASA)
world's leading climate scientist in October 2008 • EU and its international partners must urgently rethink
their targets for cutting carbon dioxide
• scientists have grossly underestimated the scale of the problem
• “The target we have all been aiming for is a disaster - a guaranteed disaster”
• Arctic Ice is melting 20 years ahead of schedule
Pounds of CO2 emitted per million Btu of energy for various fuels
Fuel name CO2 emitted (lbs/106 Btu)
Natural gas 117
Liquefied petroleum gas 139
Propane 139
Aviation gasoline 153
Automobile gasoline 156
Kerosene 159
Fuel oil 161
Tires/tire derived fuel 189
Wood and wood waste 195
Coal (bituminous) 205
Coal (subbituminous) 213
Coal (lignite) 215
Petroleum coke 225
Coal (anthracite) 227
