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This presentation by Dr Rebecca Mant from REDDPAC talks about how to intergrate multiple benefits into REDD+ like biodiversity. It also explains what land-use models can provide, how those can be linked to biodiversity impacts and what effects that has in reality.
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How can land use modelling support planning of REDD+ for multiple benefits?
Dr Rebecca Mant
10 April 2023
2Land use models and biodiversity
Landscapes have multiple functions - biodiversity, forestry, agriculture, climate regulation
10 April 2023
3Land use models and biodiversity
REDD+ policies
• Need to take account of, and will impact on, the different parts of the landscape
• Impacts will vary depending on what, how and where activities and policies are implemented
10 April 2023
4Land use models and biodiversity
Reduced deforestation
Displacement of land-use change to non-forest orlow-carbon ecosystems
Slowed habitat loss and fragmentation
Risks to biodiversity
REDD+ activity
Opportunities for biodiversity conservation
10 April 2023
5Land use models and biodiversity
Why biodiversity in REDD+?
•REDD+ Cancun Safeguards
•The Aichi Targetse.g. Target 5 By 2020, the rate of loss of all
natural habitats, including forests, is at least halved .....
• Target 15 By 2020, ... the contribution of biodiversity to carbon stocks has been enhanced, ..., including restoration of at least 15 per cent of degraded ecosystems, ....
10 April 2023
6Land use models and biodiversity
Land use models (e.g. GLOBIOM) - what can they provide?
Possible future land use under
different scenarios and policy options
Emissions
Production
Biodiversity
CO2
10 April 2023
7Land use models and biodiversity
Linking land use models to biodiversity impacts
Land use/cover change from GLOBIOM
Changes in “important” areaso areas designated as important for
biodiversityo ecosystems of concern
Changes within species rangeso Different types of specieso All species combined
Model species responses to impactso Predicts project
10 April 2023
8Land use models and biodiversity
Change in biodiversity priority areas – e.g. preliminary results for the DRC
10 April 2023
9Land use models and biodiversity
Change in biodiversity priority areas – e.g. preliminary results for the DRC
10 April 2023
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Land use models and biodiversity
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Change within species rangese.g. preliminary results from DRC
Dendromus kahuziensis Caprimulgus
prigoginei Hyperolius leleupi
- All montane forest spp.
IUCN distribution data on mammal, bird, amphibian
species (total 1637 in DRC)
+Species habitat
preferences
Change in suitable habitat within extent
of occurrence of each species
Total impact on threatened species ranges
10 April 2023
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Land use models and biodiversity
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Change within species rangese.g. preliminary results from DRC
Dendromus kahuziensis Caprimulgus
prigoginei Hyperolius leleupi
- All montane forest spp.
Total impact on threatened species ranges
Spatial distribution of impact across species
10 April 2023
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242 data sources12,271 sites (67
countries)1,143,856 records
~ 24,884 taxa
Land use models and biodiversity
10 April 2023
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Land use models and biodiversity
Outlook and way forward – Technical challenges
• Validation of models • Data • Complexities of the real world
Complexity of land use models Complex or simple assessments
of biodiversity Climate change impacts
10 April 2023
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Land use models and biodiversity
Outlook and way forward –Policy and application
• Policy decisions depend on more factors than can be modelled (e.g. conflict)
• Identifying and assessing realistic policy options using appropriate scenarios
• Accounting for multiple impacts
(e.g. biodiversity, emissions, productivity) • Assessing and communicating
uncertainty
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Land use models and biodiversity
Thank you
