ICCT Global Transportation RoadmapOverview

March/2012

Overview and Scope of Work

Slide 2

Pollutants• Local air pollutants (NOx, SOx, CO, PM)• GHGs (CO2, CH4, N2O)

Modes• On-road (LDVs, buses, 2 and 3 wheelers, HDTs)• Rail• Marine (domestic/international)• Aviation (domestic/international)

Regions• United States, EU-27, China, India, Japan, Brazil,

South Korea, Canada, Australia, Mexico, Russia, Rest of Latin America, Rest of Europe, Rest of Asia-Pacific, Middle-East, and Africa.

Years• 2000 to 2050 in 5-year increments

Outputs• WTW/WTT/TTW emissions• Energy consumption• Vehicle stock and sales

The Roadmap is a tool to help policymakers worldwide identify and understand trends in the transportation sector, assess emission impacts of different policy options, and frame plans to effectively reduce emissions of both greenhouse gases (GHGs) and local air pollutants.

The core of the Roadmap is a spreadsheet-based model developed in Microsoft Excel that calculates historical and future well-to-wheel (WTW) emissions from the transportation sector for different policy scenarios.

The Roadmap compares the effects of policies that have been adopted and those that are under active discussion with the policy potential for the largest vehicle markets.

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Roadmap ModelSpreadsheet Structure

POLICY LEVERS

LDV CALCULATIONSLDV INPUTS

BUS CALCULATIONSBUS INPUTS

2-WHEELERS CALCULATIONS

2-WHEELERS INPUTS

3-WHEELERS CALCULATIONS

3-WHEELERS INPUTS

LHDT CALCULATIONSLHDT INPUTS

MHDT CALCULATIONSMHDT INPUTS

HHDT CALCULATIONSHHDT INPUTS

PASSENGER RAIL INPUTS / CALCULATIONS

FREIGHT RAIL INPUTS / CALCULATIONS

AVIATION INPUTS / CALCULATIONS

WATERBORNE INPUTS / CALCULATIONS

MODEL OUTPUTS

FUEL INPUTS

TURNOVER MODULE

SOCIO-ECONOMIC MODULE

COUNTRY DASHBOARD

SYSTEM CONFIGURATION

SUMMARY OF OUTPUTS

MODE-SPECIFIC INPUT PARAMETERS AND CALCULATIONS

NON MODE-SPECIFIC INPUT PARAMETERS

OUTPUTS

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Roadmap ModelSimplified Emission Calculation Methodology

SOCIOECONOMIC INDICATORS

TRANSPORTATION ACTIVITY

VEHICLE ACTIVITY

FUEL CONSUMPTION

WTT EMISSIONS

WTW EMISSIONS

VEHICLE POPULATION

TTW EMISSIONS

VEHICLE SALES

VEHICLE SALES BY

TECHNOLOGY

NEW FLEET ENERGY

EFFICIENCY TTW EMISSION FACTORS

WTT EMISSION FACTORS

INPUTS

OUTPUTS

CALCULATIONS

∞ TURNOVER ALGORITHM

LEGEND

∞

∞∞

∞EMISSION

STANDARDS

FUEL BLENDS

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Emission Reduction Strategies

IMPROVE

•Vehicle efficiency improvements•Faster introduction of emission standards•“Decarbonization” of fuels and electricity•Low sulfur fuels

AVOID

•Transportation activity reduction through travel demand management, land-use policies, and improvements in efficiency of passenger and freight transportation systems.

SHIFT

•Mode shift to less energy-intensive modes (passenger and freight).

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Policy Trajectories

1.7

1.3

2.5

85% REDUCTION FROM 2000 LEVELS

50% REDUCTION FROM 2000 LEVELS

2030 GHG SAVINGS (GtCO2e) ADOPTED POLICIESIncludes existing, enforceable and finalized regulations but assumes no further changes.

POLICY PIPELINEConsiders all policies under active regulatory development or that exist as formal, stated policy goals.

POLICY POTENTIALIncludes technically feasible policies and plausible regulatory timelines, without any consideration of political will.

NO POLICIES CASEAssumes no policies adopted post 2000. Intended only to be used for quantification of Adopted Policies.

Adopted policies and those in the pipeline are not sufficient to revert the trend in increasing transportation emissions. The Policy Potential more than doubles the possible GHG savings and results in relatively stable emissions out to 2030.

Global GHG Savings from Transportation Policies

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Transportation policies have the potential to reduce GHG emissions by 35% in 2030 (from a 2030 baseline assuming no transportation policies), equivalent to a total reduction of 5.5 GtCO2e.

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Global GHG Savings from Transportation Policies

Breakdown of GHG Savings from Adopted Policies in 2030

ADOPTED POLICIES The majority of adopted policies in the transportation sector have targeted efficiency standards for light and heavy-duty vehicles, and waterborne vessels. These are expected to result in substantial emission savings –1.7 GtCO2e in 2030.

POLICY PIPELINEPolicies in the pipeline continue the successful approach of vehicle efficiency standards expanding light and heavy-duty standards into additional regions and adding aircraft standards. The pipeline also includes investments in public transit and freight rail. Combined, these policies are expected to result in savings of 1.3 GtCO2e in 2030.

Breakdown of GHG Savings from Policy Pipeline in 2030

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Policy Progress

Economic and demographic trends have some effect – either positive or negative depending on the region – on the efficiency of the transportation system. However, most of the impact on transportation efficiency improvement is expected from policies. An example below is provided for the U.S., showing how transportation policies have the potential to substantially improve how regions move people and freight.

BUBBLE SIZE: CO2e Emissions

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Planned Deliverables

Roadmap Model– Excel spreadsheet that calculates historical and future

transportation emissions by mode and region based on different policy scenarios.

Global Climate Report– Evaluation of impact from adopted, prospective, and

potential policies on GHG emissions from transportation in key regions.

Global Health Report– Evaluation of health impacts from adopted, prospective,

and potential transportation policies in key regions.