1

Evolving Issues with Japan-U.S. Arms Exports and its Implications for

Japan’s Future Defense Capabilities:

Towards Synergistic Defense Capabilities for the Alliance

Koji Imaki

Visiting Fellow, Stimson Center

2

A Survey of Japan’s Defense CapabilityCurrent System Inventory of Japan Self Defense ForceControversial Development of Key Defense Systems

Defense Capabilities of U.S. Allies and PartnersUnited KingdomTaiwanRepublic of Korea

External and Internal Environment of Japanese & U.S. Defense InitiativesAnti-Access/Area Denial EnvironmentJapan’s Decision on Relaxing Arms Export PrinciplesU.S. Defense Strategic Guidance and its implication

for the Defense Industrial Base

Japan’s Future Defense CapabilityStrategic Vision in Shaping Defense CapabilityStrategic Goals in Defense CapabilityGuideline for Shaping Defense Capability

Outline

3

Offshore Development Joint Development Indigenous Development

U.S. Others

F-15F-4

E-767KC-767

F-2 JADGE *C-1

Japan’s Defense Inventories

Offshore Development Joint Development Indigenous Development

U.S. Others

P-3Aegis System

MCH-101 SM-3* P-1 (ASW**)Soryu-class Submarine

Hatakaze-class DestroyerUS-2 (Amphibious

Aircraft)

Offshore Development Joint Development Indigenous Development

U.S. Others

AH-64 Type-10 & -90 TankOH-1 HelicopterType-03 SAM*

SSM-1*

Air Self Defense Force

<Source> IISS, The Military Balance, 2010, & Jane’s, All the World’s Aircraft, 2009-2010

Maritime Self Defense Force

Ground Self Defense Force

4

U.S. Developed Fighter Aircraft in Allies’ Inventory

<Source> Defense of Japan White Paper, 1975-2011, Japan Ministry of Defense. Hura, et. al., 2000, Interoperability: A Continuing Challenge in Coalition Air

Operations, RAND.

★FS-X

Year

Per

cen

tag

e o

f U

.S.

Fig

hte

r

5

Japan’s Defense-Related System Development Overview

<Source> IISS, The Military Balance, 2010, & Jane’s, All the World’s Aircraft, 2009-2010, The World Defence Almanac 2009.

6

Offshore Development Joint Development Indigenous Development

U.S. Others

Air Force

E-3 TyphoonTornado(F-35)

Harrier

Navy Trident SLBM Invincible-class CarrierSheffield-class Destroyer

Vanguard-class Submarine

Army WAH-64 Helicopter Challenger-2 TankOffshore Development Joint

DevelopmentIndigenous

DevelopmentU.S. Others

Air Force

F-16A/BE-2

Mirage2000 IDF*

Navy Kidd-class Destroyer

La Fayette-class FrigateZwaardvis-class Submarine

Army M-60 TankPatriot SAMOffshore Development Joint

DevelopmenIndigenous Development

U.S. Others

Air Force

F-15KF-16C/D

E-737

Missile System(Russia)

A/T-50

Navy Aegis DestroyerP-3

209-class Submarine213-class Submarine

Sejong the Great -class DestroyerYi Sun Shin-class Destroyer

Army AH-1 HelicopterPatriot SAM

T-80U (Russia) K-2 Tank

U.S. Allies’/Partner’s Defense Inventories (Summary)

UK

Taiwan

ROK

7

Geopolitical Landscape of Anti-Access Environment in Asia

<Source> Department of Defense, Office of the Secretary of Defense, Annual Report to Congress on the Military Power of the People’s Republic

of China, 2009, p. 18, accessed at http://www.defenselink.mil/pubs/pdfs/China_Military_Power_Report_2009.pdf), on February 28, 2012.

Eas

t Chi

na S

ea

South China Sea

GuamOkinawa

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Geographical Environments in Southwestern Japan

1000km

<Source> BBC News, Asia-Pacific. Retrieved on March 8, 2012 from http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-11341139

9

Layered Capabilities in Defense System

Range Fire Power

Mobility Persistency Resilience

Connectivity

LO*

Enhanced SensorTier-3

Tier-2

Tier-1(Baseline)

*LO: Low Observatory