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Research Team
Global Change ProgrammeJadavpur University, Kolkata
Presented by Shyamasree Dasgupta
In National workshop on Climate Smart disaster Risk Management
New Delhi, April 7, 2010
Disaster Management & Climate Change Adaptation:
Where the Gap Lies?
Projected Impacts of Climate Change
1 C 2 C 5 C4 C3 C
Sea level rise
threatens major cities
Falling crop yields in many areas, particularly
developing regions
Food
Water
Ecosystems
Risk of Abrupt and
Major Irreversible
Changes
Global temperature change (relative to pre-industrial)
0 C
Falling yields in many
developed regions
Rising number of species face extinction
Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and
abrupt, large-scale shifts in the climate system
Significant fall in water
availability e.g. Mediterranean
and Southern Africa
Small mountain glaciers
disappear – melt-water
supplies threatened in
several areas
Extensive Damage
to Coral Reefs
Extreme
Weather
Events
Rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding, heat waves
Possible rising yields in
some high latitude regions
Vulnerability: Operational Definition
Vulnerability =
f (Potential Impact -Adaptive Capacity)
•Exposure –direct danger due to Climate Variability
•Sensitivity - Human and Environmental Conditions that trigger impact
Adaptive Capacity –potential to cope with impacts
Adaptation
Perception
Disasters are Irregular
Highly Random Events
Mostly Unpredictable
Philosophy : Low probability of Disaster
Disaster Management emerged as Ad hoc, Reactive Financial Support policy aimed at Impact Damage Repair
Disaster management
Perception:
Disasters will be increasing
Randomness remains: but some predictions possible
Philosophy: reduction in randomness of disaster
Adaptation gives scope for pro-active strategy development to generate safeguard against climate vulnerability
Case Studies:
Coastal Inundation in Sagar Block
of Indian Sundarban
Damage Cost
Asset Lost Physical Damage Damage Cost
(Rs)
Land 1355 acres 328540000
Livestock 3826 nos. 4304800
Food (paddy) stock 129775 kgs 1946625
Fishing Nets 703 nos. 1054500
Boats 46 nos. 920000
Solar Lighting Systems 1 no. 15000
Savings in liquid cash Rs 163200 163200
Total 336944125
Disaster Management Support
Maximum support received from Government
Maximum compensation for Land Loss (16.8%)
Government Support compensated for only 17% of the Damage Cost
Institution Type of Support
Government Land, Single Room Brick Houses, Dry Food, Canvas, Embankment Building/Repair
NGO Dry Food, Canvas, Information on Natural Calamities
Relatives Cash, Manpower
Proposed Adaptation Framework
Capital Investment in Resilience Building Infrastructure (Cyclone resistant houses, embankment)
Maintenance Investment in Resilience Building Infrastructure
Long term Adaptive Capacity Creation in lieu of Recurring Ad hoc Disaster Relief Expenditure
Disaster Management vs. Adaptation
Compensation per household (in Rs Lakhs) 1.9
Investment required per household (in Rs Lakhs) for :
a) Cyclone resistant houses & saline embankment 0.83 (44%)
b) Cyclone resistant houses & concrete embankment 3.2 (167%)
•Mainstreaming of Adaptation Strategy as against Recurring & Ad hoc Disaster Relief Expenditure
•Initial investment – High
•Long term benefits – Financial, Resilience Capacity Generation and Sustainable Development
Drought Prone River Basins: Sabarmati, Mahanadi & Alakananda
Vulnerability Assessment of Hotspots
Category Sabarmati Mahanadi
% of hhlds. showing a more than 10% fall in monthly expenditure during extreme events
84 100
% of hhlds showing a more than 10% fall in monthly food budget during extreme events
28 84
% rise in the price of staple food during extreme events
10 to 50 85 to 150
Coping Strategies – Sabarmati Hotspot
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
% o
f h
ou
se
ho
lds
Dis
sav
e
Borr
ow
money
Mort
gage
pro
pert
y
Sell
pro
pert
y
Lease o
ut
pro
pert
y
Sell
liv
esto
ck
Sell log
Mig
ration
Work
in
Gov
t pro
ject
Sav
e f
odder
Buy
fodder
Coping Strategies – Mahanadi Hotspot
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
% o
f h
ou
se
ho
lds
Sto
re d
ry
food,m
edic
ines
Labour
work
Pro
tect
livesto
ck
Flo
od r
esis
tant
houses
Contingency
funds
Buy p
oly
thene
Pra
y
Reactive Adaptation Need
Need Curve - Mahanadi Hotspot
0102030405060
Saf
e dri
nk
ing
wat
er
Hou
se d
amag
e
com
pen
sati
on
Eas
y l
oan
s
Cro
p d
amag
e
com
pen
sati
on
Hea
lth
Fac
ilit
ies
Fo
od
aid
Com
mun
icat
ion
lin
ks
PD
S
Adaptation Service Demanded
No
. o
f h
hld
s.
Fig. 71 Need Curve – Mahanadi Hotspot
Possible Policies
Agricultural Insurance
Infrastructure Development by Stakeholders
R&D into Alternative Farming Technology
- Inter-Cropping
- Crop substitution
Derived Conceptual Framework
Increase in
Resilience
Increase in
Productivity &
Surplus
Increase in
Adaptive Capacity
Investment in
Resources
Decline in
Vulnerability
Asset Creation
Proactive/ Planned
Adaptation Strategy
THANK YOU