CIAT’s work on Cassava and Climate Change

Julian Ramirez / Andy Jarvis / Patricia Moreno

• Earlier work: Could cassava be the answer for climate change

adaptation?• Our workplan

Earlier work• Jarvis et al. in press

• Ceballos et al. 2011

• Herrera et al. (2011)

Is cassava the answer for climate change adaptation?

• Using the EcoCrop model, calibrated with expert knowledge and CIAT cassava program data

Ceballos et al. 2011Jarvis et al. in press

Our 2012 workplan(objective)

Improve existing estimates of climate change impacts on cassava and set up breeding priorities for climate change adaptation

Our 2012 workplan

1. Realise that we need a mechanistic model!2. James Cock and his old 70’s model

3. Model development Component StatusCanopy development (LAI)PhenologyBiomassRoot biomass and yieldWater balanceDrought responseCO2 responseSoil nutrient responsePestsDiseases

YGPIn process

2012>2012

Our 2012 workplan4. GLAMorize the cassava model

General Large Area Model (GLAM)

Large-area models are able to reproduce large-scale historical yield responses to climate and inter-annual variability

AgTrials.org (929 cassava trials)• 5. Calibrate and evaluate the model using multi-

site trial / historical yield data

Our 2012 workplan6. Run the model and improve current estimates

Liu et al. (2008)

What I am sure of is that cassava is far more plastic than this map suggests

J. Cock (2011)

A way beyond• First reputable cassava process-based model

with all key components• To be coupled with socio-economic data and

models• Also useful for evaluating other technologies

and a base for incorporating other components