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© 2014 KBC Advanced Technologies plc. All Rights Reserved.
Preparing Planning Models to Identify Profit Potential Use of Simulation Technology to Build Planning Models May 2014
Our Speakers Today
May 2014
KBC Corporate Profile > Leading independent consulting and technology group > Deliver competitive advantage to owners, operators and
investors in the oil and gas industry through risk management and improvements in business performance/asset value
> Established in 1979, AIM-listed, 2013 revenues ≈ £65 million > Full service international consultancy – 350+ employees
May 2014
People
Methodology
Technology and Tools
Impact of Planning Decision (Crude Purchase) on Refinery Margin
> Crude cost depends on a number of factors – including crude source, quality and vessel size
> Opportunity crudes and distressed cargos are attractive options to boost margin
May 2014
Refinery Cost Element
Crude Cost Margin
12%
88% 93%
7%
Feedstock
Other Cost
Western Refinery Asian Refinery
Other costs include Operating Expense, Selling/ Administrative Expense, Employee benefits, Depreciation/ Amortization and Interest/ debit Expenses
> Feedstock (crude) cost is the biggest expense for a refinery and has the most significant impact on refinery margin
> For a 200 kbpd refinery and crude @ $100/bbl – Crude costs approx US$7 billion/annum – 10 cents/bbl is worth up to $7 million/annum in increased margin – Wrong decision could cost much more
Source : KBC
100
66
23
910
70
46
16
67
Typical Benefits – Planning Model Update
May 2014
Typical Min Client #1 Client #3 Client #4 Client #2
Cents/bbl $MM @ Year @ 200 kbpd
Planning Models
May 2014
Actual Plan
Lost Opportunity
Best Achievable
Plan
Plan V/s Actual
Profit Potential
Typical Planning Model Accurately represents current Operation
Model representing Profit Potential of the asset
Linear models of non-linear refinery operations Key: Accurately capture Major Economic Drivers
Potential Opportunity
Cut Point/Routing Optimisation
May 2014
CDU
V D U
Gasoline
ATF/Kero
LPG
Aromatics
CCR
BLENDING
Kerosene HDS
Gasoil HDS
VGO HDS
Residue HDS
HCR
FCCU
Aromatics
Diesel
Fuel Oil
Naphtha vs. Kero
Gasoil max to cold
properties
Deep Cut vs.
Capacity
HCR vs. FCC
FCG / LCO LCO / Slurry
Severity Selection
May 2014
CDU
V D U
Gasoline
ATF/Kero
LPG
Aromatics
CCR
BLENDING
Kerosene HDS
Gasoil HDS
VGO HDS
Residue HDS
HCR
FCCU
Aromatics
Diesel
Fuel Oil
RON Balance Max Aromatics
H2 Balance
HDS vs. Charge Rate Feed Quality Run Length
FCC Synergy
H2 Balance Conversion
Operating Limit
Stream Quality Representation
May 2014
CDU
V D U
Gasoline
ATF/Kero
LPG
Aromatics
CCR
BLENDING
Kerosene HDS
Gasoil HDS
VGO HDS
Residue HDS
HCR
FCCU
Aromatics
Diesel
Fuel Oil
Full PONA Data Improved BTX
prediction
Contaminant Feed Paraffin vs.
Aromatics VGO vs. Resid
Contaminant Feed Paraffin vs. Aromatics
Blend Optimisation
May 2014
CDU
V D U
Gasoline
ATF/Kero
LPG
Aromatics
CCR
BLENDING
Kerosene HDS
Gasoil HDS
VGO HDS
Residue HDS
HCR
FCCU
Aromatics
Diesel
Fuel Oil
D86 Limits in Diesel,
Gasoline Blending
Cold Properties, ABN for FO
Blending
Reconcile/Validate Raw Data
May 2014
> Mass, Carbon, Hydrogen balance to reconcile Yield, Composition
– Sulfur, Nitrogen balance (if required)
> Assay Synthesis to validate Stream properties – E.g. Specific Gravity, Distillation, Flash Point
> Operating Conditions – Primary – to develop simulation model – Secondary – to validate simulation model
Selecting Calibration Case, Operating Envelope
> Single (or average) of multiple calibration cases > Provides ‘reasonably good’
match with reconciled plant data > Provides ‘reasonable’ predictions
over operating envelope
May 2014
Reformer
Stabilizer Mixed Xylene Unit
Heater Duty
Column BTMS
LP Data Generation Using Integrated Flowsheet
May 2014
Integrated Flowsheet Model Reformer and Mixed Xylene Unit
> Key Features: – Full Feed Definition (PONA) – Multiple Severities – Base Delta vectors to calculate:
• Yield shift • Composition • Change in yields from Mixed Xylene unit
– Change in distillation specifications (MXU) resulting in change in yield, composition
– Deferred cut approach allows more accurate LP results
– Constraints in any part of the plant can be modelled in LP
Simulation Key Advantage
May 2014
Solve Matrix
Solution Data
GRTMPS PSI
PIMS-SI Workbooks
Matrix Revisions
CSV Output
Text Input
Reduced Form Recursion
Loop
Use directly with PIMS AO
> Independently perturb key feed quality, operating parameter resulting in independent delta vectors > Run large number of cases (as statistically required) if generating LP vectors by regression > Ability to generate ‘customised’ stream quality data as required to support LP modelling
technique/option – Blend Index based on customised equation – PRP*SPG, PRP/SPG – Evaporation data to support D86 Blending
> Reduced equation form of process unit representation
– Including directly in the LP Model – Include via simulator link
Process Unit Monitoring, Model Tuning
May 2014
Compare Actual vs. LP
vs. Simulator Output Data Reconcile
Raw Data Raw Data
Run LP Sub Model &
Simulator
Plant Data
Calibration Factors
Update Calibration
Publish Results
No
Yes
Results OK?
Regenerate LP Vectors Update LP
& SIM Models • REF-SIM™, ISOM-SIM™ • FCC-SIM™, DC-SIM™ • HXX-SIM, HCR-SIM™ • ALK-SIM™, AROM-SIM™ • VIS-SIM™, OLEFIN-SIM™
Case Study - China Integrated Energy Company
May 2014
Business Situation KBC Role
Results and Benefits
Business Profile and Context
Largest integrated energy and petrochemical company in China with 168 MM te/y capacity through 33 refineries. Fuels retailing is in line with refining capacity. There is also some integration with upstream crude production. KBC is a trusted partner for application of global best methods and technologies. Since 2005, this has included two large Profit Improvement Programs™ with delivered benefits of over 50 c/bbl, energy reduction projects, process revamps, grassroots designs and software licenses.
Planning and scheduling methods | LP data generation | LP structure definition, building, commissioning | Backcasting process
Business Processes
• Strong growth in Chinese demand
• Chinese crude depleting, replaced by lower quality feeds from abroad
• Refinery expansions and revamps
• Energy reduction mandate of 20% in current 5 year plan
• Applying global best practices on profit performance as well as processing technology
• Advised on Planning process • Built new LPs for 2 large and
complex refineries • Simulation-based LP data
generation using Petro-SIM corporate license
• Formal training courses • Capability development of
headquarters team so they can lead roll out to new sites
• Lower feedstock costs from improved crude selection
• Feasible and accepted plans that enable optimised refinery operations
• Capable central team for roll out of LPs to other refineries
Closing > Additional questions and future topic suggestions can be
sent to [email protected] > Future webinar topics:
– CDU LP Representation – Mode vs. Swing Cuts – Reformer LP Representation – FCC LP Representation – Perturbation vs. Regression
> Video recording and presentation slides will go out shortly. > Look out for the next webinar invitation.
May 2014
May 2014
KBC Advanced Technologies
Thank you!