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'TIS THE SEASON: 2011 HOLIDAY INSIGHTS & SEM BEST PRACTICES
Aaron Goldman, CMO, Kenshoo_______________________, Yahoo!
November 1, 2011
Aaron Goldman
Chief Marketing Officer
Carla Valencia
Research Manager, Strategic Insights & Research
Retail & Tech/Telco.
November 1, 2011
Kenshoo: Proprietary & Confidential Information |
2
Webinar Information
Audio instructions – listen via computer speakers or dial into conference call at numbers listed in email from [email protected]
Still can’t hear the webinar? Tell us please!
Ask questions during & after the webinar via [email protected]
Topics
• Understanding Search as part of the purchasing process
• Holiday Trends
o Retail Saleso Key Dateso Online traffic to Retail Categorieso Demographicso Coupons
• Economic Landscape
• Implications for Marketers
Topics
• Understanding Search as part of the purchasing process
• Holiday Trends
o Retail Saleso Key Dateso Online traffic to Retail Categorieso Demographicso Deals & Coupons
• Economic Landscape
• Implications for Marketers
News websites
Brand's Facebook page Twitter blog etc.
Online video sharing websites
Magazine websites
Information about this type of product in blogs or message boards
Coupon websites
Online auction websites
Consumer websites
Shopping-related emails that I signed up for
Shopping comparison websites
Saw an advertisement from the manufacturer/retailer while on the Internet
Online-only retailer websites
Online consumer reviews and ratings
Store/retailer websites
25%
25%
26%
29%
33%
37%
38%
38%
41%
43%
47%
50%
50%
61%
Searchers are savvy shoppers that incorporate a wide range of online resources in their purchasing process
Source: Yahoo! & . 2010. “Searchers: Hyper Engaged Shoppers” comScore. qSearch Data. September, 2011
% RespondentsThose who Searched Prior to Purchase
There are 224MM unique
searchers in any given month.
Each one of them search in
average 121 times.
Before Now
This makes their purchase decision making process complex and sophisticated
… because digital content is an initial filter to further in-person investigation, marketers have the chance to help their potential customers in the process by understanding who they are and how they search
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Consumer Site (AOL,Yahoo!)Company’s Facebook
Department Store Site
Podcast
Search Engine
Retail Site
Consumer Report Site
Brand Site
Dealership Site
Expert Reviews on Website
Reviews on Brand Site
Read Digital Articles
Watch Video, Expert Created
Watch Video, Manufacturer
Enthusiast Site
Salesperson
Print Stories
TV Stories
Online sources are considered as influential as in-store sale associates, and reach is their advantage Influence to Purchase by Overall Usage
INF
LU
EN
CE
ON
PU
RC
HA
SE
OVERALL USAGE IN SHOPPING PROCESS
VERY INFLUENTIAL KEY
COMPARE DIGITAL OFFLINE
NOTVERY
INFLUENTIAL
Source: Yahoo! & & . . “The Long and Winding Road: The Gamesmanship of Shopping”. 2011
Topics
• Understanding Search as part of the purchasing process
• Holiday Trends
o Retail Sales o Key Dateso Online traffic to Retail Categorieso Demographicso Deals & Coupons
• Economic Landscape• Implications for Marketers
$466 billion predicted to be spent on 2011 holiday shopping
24%of total Department Store sales generated during the holidays
A critical time of the year for retailers
National Retail Federation 2011 Holiday Survival Kit
Offline purchases represent the largest share of Retail Sales in the US, but online purchases grow faster
1st QTR 2010
2nd QTR 2010
3rd QTR 2010
4th QTR 2010
1st QTR 2011
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
6.6%7.4%
5.7%
7.8%8.6%
14.4% 14.6% 14.9%
16.5%17.6%
Total Sales E-commerce
% Change from Prior Year
Source: US Census. Estimated Quarterly U.S. Retail Sales (Not Adjusted)
$43 billionspent on e-commerce during Q4 2010
91%of retail sales still occur offline, despite 12% YOY growth in e-commerce
Search patterns highlight consumer interest1
0/1
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/27
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/23
/10
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/19
/10
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/10
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/16
/10
10
/25
/10
11
/3/1
01
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2/1
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01
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/10
12
/18
/10
12
/27
/10
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/11
1/1
4/1
11
/23
/11
2/1
/11
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0/1
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/19
/11
2/2
8/1
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/9/1
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/18
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3/2
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/5/1
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/11
4/2
3/1
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/2/1
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5/2
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/29
/11
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Gifts Holidays & Observances
20102009 2011
Holiday Season
Memorial Day Weekend
Holiday Season
Memorial Day Weekend
Weekly Search Buzz Index TrendSearch activity query volume
Labor Day Weekend
Source: Yahoo! Internal. Search buzz index = measure of share of search, specifically weekly number of searchers of specified product category or keyword divided by total weekly number of searchers in audience segment * 100,000
Consumers use search to find gifts
DEPARTMENT STORES 30%
APPAREL & ACCESSORIES 28%
CONSUMER ELECTRONICS 30%
FLOWERS & GIFTS 27%
% Traffic from Search Engines to …
Source: Hitwise . Industry Statistics. Week of 12/26/10
Holiday Shopping Trends
The online holiday shopping season historically peaked each year around December 12. However, holiday season sales have received a push from promotional dates. Cyber Monday has emerged as the top online spending day of the year. Similarly, Thanksgiving Day, Free Shipping Day and the week leading upto Christmas all posted sales growth above the 13% rate in 2010.
Source: comScore. Dec’2010
Total Holiday Spending in 2010 was $30.1 Billion
Thanksgiving Day
Black Friday Ciber Monday Green Monday Free Shipping Day
Dec 20 - Dec 26
$318
$595
$887 $854
$586
$2,098
$407
$648
$1,028 $954 $942
$2,450
2009 2010
Holiday TOTAL RETAIL Online Spending
Millions ($)
12% 61% 17%% change from prior
year
Source: comScore. Dec’2010
In 2010 total online retail
spending grew 13% from prior
year.
28% 9% 16%
Mon
day
11.1
.10
Wed
nesd
ay
Friday
Sunda
y
Tuesd
ay
Thurs
day
Satur
day
Mon
day
Wed
nesd
ay
Friday
Sunda
y
Tuesd
ay
Thank
sgivi
ng
Satur
day
Cyber
Mon
day
Wed
nesd
ay
Friday
Sunda
y
Tuesd
ay
Thurs
day
Satur
day
Gre
en M
onda
y
Wed
nesd
ay
Free
Shippin
Day
Sunda
y
Tuesd
ay
Thurs
day
Christ
mas
Mon
day
Wed
nesd
ay
Friday
Sunda
y -
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Page Views
Consumer Electronics Department Stores Home Improvement Mass Merch Apparel
Online users shop and compare first and then make a purchase decision on key dates
Source: Yahoo! Internal. Magellan Panel Data. Nov,10
Although PV’s hit the highest point on Black Friday, hard data for Cyber Monday let us assume that users shop and browse for products earlier and then make a decision on Monday. A
similar trend happens on the days following Christmas.
Total Spent $1.0B
Total Spent $648M
Total Spent $954M
Total Spent $942M
Total Spent $2.4B
Online shoppers population grows fast as Holidays get closer
UU’s to Select Retail Categories(in millions)
Source: comScore. Media Metrix.
86
69 71
64
41 41
3431
2016
9188
77
70
54
4239 37
3126
Oct'10
Dec'10
Family tops the list for gifts this year
Parent(s
)
Spouse or s
ignificant o
ther
Sibling (s
)
Friend(s)
Childre
n
Other C
hildre
n
Myse
lf
RelativesPets
Grandparent(s
)
59%
53%51% 50%
47%44%
38%35% 35%
25%
Bought/Buying for in 2011
HOL1 For which of the following people, if any, did you buy gifts for last holiday season (2010) and which do you plan to shop or buy gifts for this holiday season (2011)? Please think of any gifts that you may shop for or purchase during the holiday season, as well as those you may shop for or purchase after the holidays (e.g., post-holiday sales). Base: Total Sample (1500)
Most will experience some type of stress this holiday season with finance topping the list…
HOL40 What is your biggest concern this coming holiday season?
My biggest concern this holiday season is….
Dealing with children
Decorating the house/tree
Gift wrapping
Pressure to maintain traditions
Dealing with family
The stress of gift buying (dealing with stores/finding the time)
Knowing what gifts to buy
Money/expenses and other financial pressures
ANY STRESS FOR HOLIDAY SEASON
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
2011
2010
Online advertising not only drives sales but it also is an effective way to connect with Holiday Shoppers
20
Get gift ideas
Get me into the holiday spirit
Entertain me for the holiday season
Know when there are sales events
Informed about deals , offers, & promotions
Make a decision about what I should buy
Remind me of stores don't usually think of
Remind me about different products & brands
Find out about stores I want to go to
Find out about other places I want to go to
55%
20%
13%
50%
47%
36%
31%
34%
33%
26%
Online Advertising Should Help Me…
SPIRIT
DEALS
REMIND
HOL24 How might online advertising help you while shopping for gifts during this upcoming holiday season? Base: Plan to Buy Gifts This Holiday Season (1402)
A majority of holiday shoppers are interested in offers and promotions, free shipping is key!
21
Price discounts or sales
Free shipping
Purchase incentives
Coupons from newspapers/mags
Coupons received through email
Rebates
Coupons that I found online
Gifts sold as sets or with free items for less
Coupons from a coupon club website
Lay-away plans
21%
20%
27%
24%
24%
25%
23%
23%
21%
13%
60%
56%
42%
44%
41%
38%
39%
28%
29%
22%
79%
75%
66%
64%
63%
56%
60%
48%
48%
32%
Definitely Interested
Definitely/Probably Interested
HOL31 How interested are you in taking advantage of the following types of holiday offers and promotions from your local retailer (such as Target, Best Buy, JC Penney’s, etc.)? Please think of any offers that you might receive online as well as those offline. Base: Plan to Buy Gifts This Holiday Season (1402)
I am definitely/probably interested in the following…
Volume of 2010 Black Friday related searches similar to previous holiday season
3%
52%
Source: Hitwise.
Searches for retailer coupons and discount codes showed strong growth last Holiday Season
+27%+13%
Source: Hitwise
Topics
• Understanding Search as part of the purchasing process
• Holiday Trends
o Retail Sales o Key Dateso Online traffic to Retail Categorieso Demographicso Deals & Coupons
• Economic Landscape
• Implications for Marketers
Declining economy make people feel less optimistic about their current and future situation
C
C
The powers in Washington have overused their powers and don't care about the rest of the nation
All of our opportunities are disappearing. We are letting too many
immigrants in and giving them everything they need
while we all suffer.
The country isn't really doing anything positive right now and the
unemployment rate is very high.
I consider it not the land of opportunity unless you are
a politician or big business.OBAMA
ECON21.Why don’t you consider America to be the land of opportunity?Base: Strongly/Somewhat disagree that America is still the land of opportunity
Source: Yahoo! Consumer Pulse.. IPSOS OTX. Sep’11
… and this outlook has an impact on their expenditures pattern
Total 2010
A
Total 2009
B
Total 2008
C
38%
38%
39%
7%
8%
9%
37%
27%
23%
18%
27%
29%
Spend less now Don't know About the same Spend more now
Current Discretionary Spending 2010, 2009 And 2008
*Letter indicates statistical significance between comparative groups at the 90% confidence level
MoreLess
BC
C A
A A
ECON2/ECON3/ECON4. How does your current discretionary spending compare to your discretionary spending in 2010, 2009 and 2008? Base: All respondents (n=1,500)
Source: Yahoo! Consumer Pulse.. IPSOS OTX. Sep’11
Avg. # of GiftsPlan to Buy
Avg. Budget for Gifts
Avg. $ Per Gift
Total 11 $725 $66
Parentof 0-17 15 $893 $59
Dads 15 $1,005 $67
Moms 15 $819 $55
Parents, especially Dads, buy the most gifts and spend the most money
28
HOL2 How many people in total do you plan to shop or buy gifts for the upcoming holiday season? Base: Total Sample (1500)HOL18 How much money will you be budgeting to cover all of your upcoming holiday gift purchases? Base: Plan to buy gifts this holiday season (varies) *Excludes outliers (2 x standard deviation plus the mean)
-1 vs 2010 -11% vs 2010
Consumers are buying 1 less gift and spending 11% less per gift this year.
Despite negative views of the economy, Holiday spirit is still prevalent and gift shopping has already started
I've already done the
majority of it
After Halloween
On Black Friday
Thanksgiving weekend
Cyber Monday
After Thanksgiving
weekend
Just days before the holidays
After the holidays are over
8% 25% 19% 6% 5% 24% 11% 2%
When do you plan to do the majority of gift shopping for this 2011 Holiday Shopping?
Source: Yahoo! & IPSOS OTX. Sep’11. Attitudes about Holidays
“Buy Early” Type Late Shoppers
Implications for Marketers
• People who SEARCH represent a group of hyper engaged shoppers. They gather information from more sources prior to purchase.
• Purchase decision making process is complex. Marketers need to be present all along the way to help conversion.
• Search remains the key driver of traffic to retailers and represented 28% of all upstream traffic in December 2010.
Understand the purchasing
cycle
• Holiday Shoppers start early in their gift shopping process. • Holiday Shoppers are also budget-conscious shoppers that turn to search to find discounts & deals during the holiday season,. In 2010 searches for retailer branded coupons increased 13% YoY
• Holiday shoppers will spend less money this year in gifts than last year
Understand the consumers
state of mind
• Display enhances search
• Holiday Shoppers will buy gifts mainly for their parents and their
significant others and/or spouses.
• Long tail terms are fertile ground to gain SOV
Strategize
Overview
Learn from past holiday seasonsPlan your strategy and tacticsExecute your campaigns with decisive action
30%+ of Yearly Sales Can Be Driven In the Next 2 Months
We are here. Are you ready?
32
Pick Portfolios
Portfolio: • Define scope (Profile, Campaigns, Ad Groups)• Set goals (Profit, Revenue, Conversions, Traffic)• Set constraints (e.g. ROI>2.5, Daily Spend<10K)
Input: • Historical data• Custom seasonality index• Custom keyword similarity groupings
Output: • New keyword bid recommendations• Performance forecasting
48
Pick PortfoliosPortfolio:
• Define scope (Profile, Campaigns, Ad Groups)• Set goals (Profit, Revenue, Conversions, Traffic)• Set constraints (e.g. ROI>2.5, Daily Spend<10K)
Input: • Historical data• Custom seasonality index• Custom keyword similarity groupings
Output: • New keyword bid recommendations• Performance forecasting
885% Profit Increase for campaigns running Portfolio Bid Optimization during the 2010 holiday season vs. Manual
and Keyword Bid Optimization
49
Recap
Learn– Mine trends and be ready!
Plan– Schedule and automate actions!
Attack– Stay vigilant and react!
60