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Snapshot of a set of key challenges, opportunities, myths & misconceptions in the telecoms industry. Thought-provoking soundbites on voice, Net Neutrality, mobile broadband & other topic
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Key technology trends & challenges for
communications providers
Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis
May 2014
[email protected] @disruptivedean
About Disruptive Analysis
London-based tech analyst house & strategic consulting firm
Cross-silo, contrarian, independent
Advisor to telcos, vendors, regulators & investors
Internal workshops & brainstorms
Clients include many top telcos, vendors, webcos & startups Orange, Telenor, VZ, T-Mobile, SingTel, SKT, NTT, Belgacom, Cisco, Ericsson, Huawei,
ALU, Oracle, Genband, Qualcomm, Celcom, Amdocs, IBM, Ofcom, GSMA
Speaker at 30+ events per year in Europe, US & Asia
Reports on “Telco-OTT Strategies”, WebRTC etc
New report on “Non-Neutral Broadband Models”
Twitter @disruptivedean Blog: disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014 May 2014
Mobile data: Tsunami or just normal rising tide?
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014 May 2014
3G/4G Smartphone data use
• Disruptive Analysis has doubts on realism of some traffic forecasts (esp. Cisco VNI)
• Growth manageable with pricing, small cells, LTE, LTE-A. 5G is mostly hype for now
• “Spectrum crunch” narrative highly questionable (landgrab vs broadcast?)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Growing usage per smartphone
Growing # smartphone subs
?
NB 2012-13 subs growth possibly skewed by
older smartphones without data plans
Smartphone data use growth year-on-year
c20-30% growth/user/yr
Source: Ericsson, Disruptive Analysis
Network Neutrality: storm in a teacup?
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014 May 2014
Red Herring Neutral-ish & maybe
unworkable
• Few realistic scenarios beyond zero-rating
• Lots of scope for failure
• Only winners will be the lawyers
• Blocking = Unwinnable tech arms-race
Some zero-rating is
feasible (Rev=Zero)
Impossible wishful-
thinking
Low-end users in
emerging markets
Two charts you’ll never see…
Calls by purpose
Gossip
Meeting up
Flirting
B2C Cust Svc
B2B internal
Spam
Showing off
Work
Wasting time
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014 May 2014
Must have
Nice to have
Meh. I want free
I'll call back
Importance of QoS, % calls
Diagrams are illustrative, not actual data
• Telecom industry doesn’t understand demand for its core product
• Makes it impossible to defend vs. competition & substitution
OTT voice & messaging: pricing & purpose
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014 May 2014
Voice Messaging
Standalone
“call/send”
model
Standalone
other model
Embedded
in app/web
WebRTC
SMS
iMessage FaceTime
Audio
FaceTime
Video
Skype
Messenger
LINE
Hangouts
GTalk
PSTN,
VoLTE
RCS
Flash
Lync API
Siri
iOS/Android
notifications
Video
Free or almost-free
Better experience
Fits use-cases & contexts
Fast-evolving
Viral / cool / peer-group
Partner? Own OTT?
New sources of revenue
VoLTE… eventually… patchily
Limited deployment of VoLTE so far
Live in 3 South Korea networks & quite widely used
Huge work undertaken, dense cell networks (inc. indoor), cooperation
Small MetroPCS deployment, halted after T-Mo acquisition
AT&T – limited launch May 2014 (1 phone, 3 areas)
Small “Press release” launches on O2 DE & CSL HK
China Mobile demo + aggressive 2014/15 plans
Extremely complex. Many separate problems & issues
Most LTE operators sticking to CSFB for now
Against a backdrop of falling demand & revenue for telephony
No obvious VoLTE benefits beyond HD & minor spectrum gain
RCS / joyn – zombie technology. Dead but still shambling
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014 May 2014
Beyond OTT apps: WebRTC= next disruption
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014 May 2014
Source: Disruptive Analysis WebRTC Strategy Report
Policy & innovation…… …..vs. politics
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014 May 2014
Strategy
Mobile broadband
Telco Depts
In-house apps & content
Marketing / Product
IT Core network
Radio network
Devices
Legal
Tensions
Tensions
Distance
• Design skills
• Software skills
• Cannibalisation
• “Standards”
• Risk-averse
• Legacy tech
Tensions
Other “Disruptive” trends & opinions
GSMA, 3GPP, ETNO etc. often a hindrance, not a help
NFC is a pointless waste of time, especially for telcos
SDN & NFV may be game-changers, but patchy & slow
IoT is going to need more IT/solutions skills than connectivity
Privacy & encryption becoming more important post-Snowden
Reach & impact of Apple, Facebook, Amazon, Google,
Microsoft cannot be underestimated. Watch capex & R&D
Lots going on with enterprise & cloud communications
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014 May 2014
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014 May 2014
Also **NEW**: Non-Neutral Mobile
Internet Business Models Report
Also on request: private workshops &
expert advisory retainers
For details email
www.disruptive-analysis.com
disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
@disruptivedean
Skype:disruptiveanalysis
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014 May 2014
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