Tendencias del sector de Tendencias del sector de las TICslas TICsOECD IT Outlook 2010 OECD IT Outlook 2010 (forthcoming)(forthcoming)

José Antonio ArdavínJosé Antonio ArdavínDirectorDirector

Centro de la OCDE en México para América LatinaCentro de la OCDE en México para América Latina

Con información de laCon información de laInformation Economy Unit (STI) OECDInformation Economy Unit (STI) OECD

www.oecd.org/sti/itowww.oecd.org/sti/ito

16 de junio de 201016 de junio de 2010

Source: OECD Mexico Economic Survey 2007

El crecimiento de México ha sido relativamente bajo comparado con otras economías de la

OCDE y emergentes

Source: OECD ECO and OECD Development Centre, Perspectives on Global Development 2010

The world of four speeds1990s

2000s

GDP per capita 1980=100, Constant Prices PPPs

Source: OECD Mexico Economic Survey 2007

La causa se encuentra fundamentalmente en el bajo crecimiento de la productividad

Source: OECD Economic Surveys: Mexico 2009, Fig. 4.2

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

BRA ZAF MEX RUS USA OECD TUR CHL IND CHN

Demographic effect

Labour Productivity

Labour Utilisation

GDP per capita

Sources of GrowthAverage growth 1987-2007

Hoy dialogaremos sobre un sector que puede ser una palanca importante del crecimiento y de la

productividad…la

OECD broadband penetration and GDP per capita

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0

GDP

per c

apita

200

7

Broadband Penetration, June 2009

Mexico

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0

GDP

hour

wor

ked

2008

Broadband Penetration, June 2009

Mexico

OECD broadband penetration and GDP hour worked

Source: OECD Broadband Portal [http://www.oecd.org/sti/ict/broadband] and OECD Factbook.2010

Top 250 ICT firms’ revenue growth, 2000-09Average annual growth, percentages

Source: OECD Information Technology Outlook, 2010 (forthcoming).

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

…un sector cuyas empresas crecen velozmente…

ICT spending by market sector, 2009USD millions, current prices

Source: OECD Information Technology Outlook, 2010 (forthcoming). 6

0

100 000

200 000

300 000

400 000

500 000

600 000

700 000

800 000

900 000

1 000 000

0

25 000

50 000

75 000

100 000

125 000

150 000

175 000

Computer Hardware Computer Software Computer Services Communications

…al igual que su mercado…

Growth of ICT sector and total value added in the OECD area, 1995-20081995=100 , Compound annual growth rate (% on the right)

Source: OECD Information Technology Outlook, 2010 (forthcoming).

7

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

ICT manufact.1.0%

Total ICT 4.6%

Manufacturing2.4%

Services 4.7%

Total business sector 4.1%

ICT services6.0%

… y el valor agregado de la industria en las economías de la OCDE

la

ICT business sector value added, 1995-2008 % of total business value added

Source: OECD Information Technology Outlook, 2010 (forthcoming).

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

141995 2008%

Este sector representa cerca del 5% del valor agregado de la economía mexicana…

Trends in value added in the Mexican ICT sectorIndexed growth 2003=100

Source: OECD Information Technology Outlook, 2010 (forthcoming). 9

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Mexico, manufacturing

Mexico, ICT manufacturing

EU-15, ICT manufacturing

OECD, ICT manufacturing

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Mexico, services

Mexico, ICT services

EU-15, ICT services

OECD, ICT services

…con un crecimiento más dinámico en servicios que en manufacturas…

Source: OECD Information Technology Outlook, 2010 (forthcoming).

0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

IcelandSpain

GreecePortugal

NetherlandsAustralia

PolandBelgiumMexico

SwitzerlandCanada

ItalyAustria

LuxembourgCzech Republic

FranceEU 15

DenmarkNorwayEstonia

United KingdomSlovak Republic

Germany OECD

United StatesHungarySwedenIreland

JapanKorea

Finland

0% 5% 10% 15%

SwitzerlandMexicoAustriaPolandGreece

ItalyLuxembourg

IcelandAustralia

Germany EstoniaCanada

JapanSpain

BelgiumSlovak Republic

EU 15France

OECDPortugal

KoreaDenmark

NorwayUnited States

United KingdomHungary

NetherlandsFinland

SwedenCzech Republic

Ireland

ICT services value added, 2008 % of services value added

ICT manufacturing value added, 2008 % of manufacturing value added

…aunque en ambos casos hay potencial de crecer aún más

…

Households with access to telephone, internet and computer2008 or most recent figure

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0

400.0

450.0

Turk

eyM

exic

oG

reec

eCz

ech

Repu

blic

Port

ugal

Italy

Pola

ndH

unga

rySp

ain

Slov

akRe

publ

icU

nite

dSt

ates

Fran

ceO

ECD

aver

age

Irel

and

Belg

ium

Japa

nN

ewZe

alan

dA

ustr

alia

A

ustr

iaU

nite

dKi

ngdo

mFi

nlan

dCa

nada

Switz

erla

ndG

erm

any

Luxe

mbo

urg

Den

mar

kN

orw

aySw

eden

Net

herl

ands

Icel

and

Kore

a

Telephone

Internet

Computer

Source: OECD Factbook 2010

El reto fundamental es cómo potenciar una industria que no es más un lujo, sino, cada vez más un

derecho y una fuente de empoderamiento social

…

OECD Broadband penetration (per 100 inhabitants) net increaseDecember 2008-2009, by country

Si bien el crecimiento de la penetración de banda ancha ha sido superior al promedio de la

OCDE…

0

1

2

3

4

5OECD Broadband penetration (per 100 inhabitants), net increase, December (2008-2009), by country

OECD net increase

Source : OECDSource: OECD Broadband Portal [http://www.oecd.org/sti/ict/broadband]

.

OECD Fixed broadband subscribers per 100 inhabitants, by technology December 2009

Source: OECD Broadband Portal [http://www.oecd.org/sti/ict/broadband]

.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Other Fibre/LAN Cable DSL

OECD average

…aún se requiere hacerlo a mayor velocidad y con la tecnología adecuada…

Maximum advertised speed among selected operators, by countryAdvertised kbit/s October 2009

…en una industria cuya frontera se expande constantemente ¿Qué aspectos tecnológicos y de infraestructura

son necesarios?

Source: OECD Broadband Portal [http://www.oecd.org/sti/ict/broadband]

.

¿Cómo puede el mercado hacerse más eficiente y competitivo?

Evolution of representative DSL broadband suscription over time2005-2009

Source: OECD Measuring Innovation: A new perspective 2009

.

¿Qué rol tiene el gobierno?como regulador, promotor, comprador, proveedor de servicios

Broadband penetration and citizen uptake of e-government services2008

Source: OECD Measuring Innovation: A new perspective 2009

.

Tendencias del sector de Tendencias del sector de las TICslas TICsOECD IT Outlook 2010 OECD IT Outlook 2010 (forthcoming)(forthcoming)

José Antonio ArdavínJosé Antonio ArdavínDirectorDirector

Centro de la OCDE en México para América LatinaCentro de la OCDE en México para América Latina

Con información de laCon información de laInformation Economy Unit (STI) OECDInformation Economy Unit (STI) OECD

www.oecd.org/sti/itowww.oecd.org/sti/ito

16 de junio de 201016 de junio de 2010

Presentación disponible en www.ocde.org.mx

Más información enwww.oecd.org/sti/ito y http://www.oecd.org/sti/ict/broadband