Lmi Demystify62910

Labor Market Information/LMI: How to Demystify Labor Market & Economic Statistics

Tuesday, June 29, 2010Presentation by Gary Crossley to the IAWP 97th Educational Conference

2Workwww.LovetoWork.org

[email protected]

Phone -- 843/452-4121

The Secret Behind the LMI Magic Is it in the way they count? Do they know someone special? What secret potion do they use to produce

those numbers? Maybe it is their astrological signs? Do they read palms on the side? Where do they keep the Ouija boards?

Outline

Education Application & Assessment Communication Help Understanding Solutions Q & A

Education

BLS Programs Census LMI Training Understanding Data

BLS Core Programs

QCEW, Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages

CES. Current Employment Statistics LAUS, Local Area Unemployment

Statistics MLS, Mass Layoff Statistics OES, Occupational Employment

Statistics

BLS Cooperative Programs

The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW)

Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages

Produces employment, total payroll, weekly wages and employing units

All data by industry (North American Industry Classification System/NAICS)

Geographic areas: state, county, MSA Called “covered” employment By place of work

Data Sources for QCEW UI quarterly

contribution reports

UCFE federal agency employment

Supplementary employer surveys by state LMI offices

Multiple establishment detail (MWR)

Industrial coding (annual refile survey)

Follow-ups triggered by edits

Uses of QCEW Data Employment benchmarks

for all BLS federal/state employer survey programs — CES, OES and OSHA

Critical for Bureau of Economic Analysis: Personal income, and state and national product

Local planning - Only consistent source of county employment and wages by industry

Analysis requiring universe or detailed data


Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Information from CES

Industry employment Hours worked per

week Average hourly

wages Average weekly

wages Production workers

Data available only for state and select MSAs

Data produced on a monthly and annual basis

By place of work

CES/QCEW Coverage Differences

The following categories of workers are included in CES estimates but not included in QCEW:

Full commission salespersons

Elected and appointed government officials

Teachers in summer months who are paid on 12-month contracts

Data Sources for CES

Covered employment from QCEW, supplemented with non-covered adjustments, is used to benchmark levels.

A monthly employer survey is a major part of the program, using a variety of collection methods.

Adjusted for birth-death factors

Uses of CES

A primary economic indicator of employment, earnings, and working hours for national, state, and selected areas

Total employment growth used by Federal Reserve

Incorporated in preliminary estimates of National Product and Income

Incorporated into productivity estimates


Local Area Unemployment Statistics- LAUS -

Information from LAUS Total employment Total unemployment Unemployment rate Demographic

breakouts: sex, race, age, educational attainment, ethnicity

Place of residence

LAUS Source Information

Current Population Survey – 60,000 households

Interview 15+ age groups but publish 16+

States: Monthly model estimates

Substate: Handbook “building-block” method (CPS, CES, UI, Census)


Mass Layoff Statistics (MLS)

Information from MLS

Intent: To track serious layoffs and closings by industry

At least 50 initial claims for UI for a 5-week period

Some states use a cut-off figure of 25 claims

Data available by industry, state and reason

Background Material -BLS Statistical Programs

BLS Handbook of Methods

Download:www.bls.gov/opub/hom


Occupational Employment Statistics (OES)

Information from OES

Employment by occupation

Occupational breakout by industry

Wage rate ranges by occupation

Collected twice a year and published annually

Available for state and MSAs (workforce areas in some states)

Data “aged” to bring up to date - ECI

OES Staffing Estimates Data developed with

most current 3 years of data

Surveys conducted twice annually

Employment by occupation tallied for each detailed industry

Staffing ratios developed representing each occupation’s share of industry employment

State and Area Occupational Projections

Partially funded by ETA but tied to OES

Composed of adjusted OES staffing ratios applied to industry employment projections

Short-term projections — 2 years out

Long-term projections: 10 years out

Technical assistance available at the following site: dev.projectionscentral.com

Cheat Sheet

BLS Program

Quarterly Census ofEmployment and Wages

CES -- Current Employment

Survey

LAUS -- Local Area Unemployment Statistics

MLS -- Mass Layoff Statistics

OES -- Occupational Employment Statistics

Other titles Wage Record Monthly EmploymentUnemployment RateLabor Force Data Mass Layoffs Wages by Job Title

Frequency Quarterly Monthly Monthly Monthly Previously once a year. Data now gathered in May and November

Sample No, universe of all businesses that are required to report

Yes, firms in sample are based on the QCEW universe.

No, Composite model which uses as one of the inputs responses from the Current Population Survey, a household survey that measures the national unemployment rate.

No, universe of all businesses that have a qualifying event.

Yes, firms in sample are based on the ES-202 universe.

Measures Quarterly report of all employment and firms (Industry and Employment)

Indicator of rapid changes in employment available on a monthly basis (Industry, Employment and Manufacturing Production Workers wages). Is used for industrial projections.

Consistent measure of available, able and actively seeking work for all counties (Unemployment Rate)

Shows the demographic characteristics of those involved in a mass layoff. Definition of mass layoff event varies by state.

Occupational data by Industry, geographic area as well as wage data. Is a component for projections.

Time Lag Not available until 5 months after the end of the quarter

Usually, 6 weeks. Usually, 6 weeks. Usually, 6 weeks. Approximately one year, should be shorter with new reporting method.

Updates? Of the data, rarely Preliminary data, then revised. Benchmarked at the end of the year

Benchmarked at the end of the year

Of the data, rarely Uses the ECI (Employment Cost Index) to bring data up-to-date

Geography Subject to rules of confidentiality. May include county, metropolitan areas and state

Subject to rules of confidentiality. Metropolitan areas and state

County, metropolitan areas and state. In addition, the different counties in an area can be added together to create Labor Market Areas.

Subject to rules of confidentiality. In some states, county, metropolitan areas and state data are available.

Subject to rules of confidentiality. Metropolitan areas and state are available. In addition, each state may produce four sub-areas.

Comparison of Bureau of Labor Statistics Programs done in Labor Market Information Shops

Census Some States are also State Data

Centers MOU for Data Sharing which adds

other Census Data on Businesses & Workers

Local Employment Dynamics Quarterly Workforce Indicators Community Hot Reports

Employment Dynamics

Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics/LEHD from Census: Uses UI and Census data to measure detailed workforce activity by area

LEHD/LED also produces Quarterly Workforce Indicators

LED Contact: Jeremy Wu, Census Bureau

www.lehd.did.census.gov

On The Map for Custom Areas OnTheMap Version 4

Released

Start using OnTheMap now! The new version adds: Data for 2007 and 2008 Data for Ohio (2002-2008) Import/Export shapefiles and KML/KMZ Better selection tools Other new features and usability improvements See examples and tutorials...

http://lehd.did.census.gov/led/whatsnew.html#042110

LMI Training Institute

Now operated by the C2ER organization –The Council for Community and Economic Research

Variety of training both for LMI staff and data users

www.lmiontheweb.org

LMI Concepts & Definitions

Adjusting for Seasonal Patterns Data Collection Definitions of Labor Market Concepts Statistical Error Sampling Trend Analysis & Projection Models

Unadjusted Data

Seasonally Adjusted Data

Data Collection

Employer Establishment Surveys Household Surveys Administrative Data Specific Follow-up Targeted Surveys

Education/Training Completers Green Industries Dislocated Workers

Labor Market Concepts

Employed & Unemployed Whys Use the Reference Week of the

12th of each month? Who and How is Unemployment

Counted? Underemployment, Discouraged

Workers, & Alternate Measures of Unemployment

Labor Force Terms and Concepts

Employed

Worked at least one hour for pay

During the week that includes the 12th

Unemployed

No job attachment

Able, available for and actively seeking work

Can be experienced or a new or re-entrant


So what is so special about the week of the 12th???

Fewest holidays so it is the most “normal” workweek on average for the year


Labor Force 16+ years old Employed + Unemployed

Unemployment Rate Unemployed ÷ Labor Force

Expressed as %

Labor Force Participation Rate Labor Force ÷ Working Age

Population

Labor Force Terms and ConceptsDiscouraged Workers Harder to define

and sometimes undercounted

Generally are on long-term layoff with no immediate prospects

Underemploy-ment Also hard to define

and count

Basically can be anyone working below their skill level

Underemployed by choice?

Alternative Unemployment Measures Alternative Measures of Labor Underutilization for States,

Second Quarter of 2009 through First Quarter of 2010 Averages Six alternative measures of labor underutilization have long

been available on a monthly basis from the Current Population Survey (CPS) for the United States as a whole. They are published in the Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation news release. (See table 15.) The official concept of unemployment (as measured in the CPS by U-3 in the U-1 to U-6 range of alternatives) includes all jobless persons who are available to take a job and have actively sought work in the past four weeks. This concept has been thoroughly reviewed and validated since the inception of the CPS in 1940. The other measures are provided to data users and analysts who want more narrowly (U-1 and U-2) or broadly (U-4 through U-6) defined measures.

http://www.bls.gov/lau/stalt.htm

Application & Assessment

So what that LMI Has All those data? What does it matter? Assessment is all about measurement Using information to help customers

(both labor supply and business demand)

Limits of data

LMI Matters One pagers on how states have used

workforce information projects & products to help economic recovery, answer program questions, and/or shape future state/local initiatives

For each submittal – data used, impact, cost & how funded, when produced, and link to report/research

Green jobs, training issues, economic impact, assessing disasters, in-demand industries, etc.

Communication

Meet each other half way to learn how to talk with each other (leave each other’s jargon and acronyms at the respective offices)

LMI must take their products and make them usable to end users

Products need to be useful in terms of timeliness, accuracy, and relevance

Help Each Other

Develop Web Sites to Help Folks Help Themselves

Always explore new ways to do things Learn from other states and national

technical assistance Use the data to tell a story – job skill

requirement changes, unemployment & earnings by education

Solutions Use all Resources Data Explained Partner with other groups (higher

education, associations, etc.) to address issues

Creative technology to map, spot trends, and apply data to solve problems in your areas

All Labor Markets are Local!

• Number of employees and wages by NAICS code • Pay quarterly into UI Trust Fund • Grouped by size of employment and type of employment• Location by address• Forecast of industry trends (growth over 2-yr, 10-yr period)

Industries

Occupations

• Number in occupation• Wages by occupation• Organized by O*Net/SOC code• Analyzed by assessment tools• Grouped by education & experience• Grouped by job family• Linked to training program• Cross-walked to industry patterns• Forecast of average annual openings (growth + net replacement)

Geographic Areas

• Counties• Metro-Statistical Areas • Workforce Dev Areas• State

DataExplained.com Web Site Devoted to Understanding

Data, Research, Statistical Reports Founder and CEO Scott Moore MN Researcher & Labor Employee Current Business, Moore Data, LLC Making Sense of Data Applied Employment Topics www.dataexplained.com

Deep Water Horizon Rig Employment

Off-Shore MoratoriumThe economic impact of shutting down a deep water drilling rig is no doubt massively expensive. But employment impact is different. As a benchmark, the employment on the BP rig was 126 persons. It is reported that wages average about 100k per year for those workers. However, I could not find that person anywhere, except in the management ranks according to National OES data! Furthermore, most if not all support workers, according to the BLS, make less than 1/2 that unsubstantiated amount.

Interestingly, as soon as we get into a multiplier discussion, the numbers start off ridiculously high and go up from there. But a multiplier over two is not reasonable or supported in any research and especially not in this case. One primary reason is the service nature of the JOBS we are talking about, NOT the industry multipliers.

LMI Resources Workforce Information Council,

www.workforceinfocouncil.org Bureau of Labor Statistics, www.bls.gov LMI Training Institute, www.lmiontheweb.org O*Net Resource Center, www.onetcenter.org Department of Labor WIN WIN,

http://winwin.workforce3one.org/ Census, www.census.gov State LMI Web Sites Universities, Associations, & Institutes

Summary EACH of US can use these principles

to communicate better with each other

Maybe IAWP can share best practices between the various agency programs to help solve workforce issues

Use and share resources between the states/areas to learn from each other

Labor Market Information/LMI: How to Demystify Labor Market & Economic Statistics

Questions and State Sharing

2Workwww.LovetoWork.org

[email protected]

Phone -- 843/452-4121

Technology

Lmi Demystify62910