Michael peeters

COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. ALCATEL-LUCENT — INTERNAL PROPRIETARY — USE PURSUANT TO COMPANY INSTRUCTION

Michael Peeters, Wireline CTO FTTH Council München, February 2012

THE SKY IS THE LIMITWHAT TO EXPECT NEXT ?

v1


The 3 things we expect will drive technology

1.Sharing the cost2.Saturated bandwidth demand3.Flexibility, but not at any cost

THE SKY IS THE LIMITBECAUSE WE CANNOT SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON

v


FLEXIBILITY IN COST ALLOCATION

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Share WW Broadband Subscriber Additions (Dell'Oro)

PON

Ethernet/Other

VDSL

ADSL/SHDSL

Cable modem

• Favored if Figure of Merit is lowest cost per dedicated Mb/s• Valid for smaller deployments with short loops

• Favored if Figure of Merit is lowest cost per subscriber• Favored for higher peak bandwidths• Valid for all deployments• Strongly preferred for large COs, longer loops

PTP PON


BANDWIDTHIS NO LONGER THE CAPTAIN

GPON

10G PON

NGPON2 (40G PON)

GPON has enough bandwidth for FTTH beyond 2020

(Plan)

Drivers for 10G PON•FTTB/DSLAM•FTTBusiness•More bandwidth at same cost as GPON (not yet foreseeable)

Drivers for NGPON2•More bandwidth for FTTB/DSLAM/Business•CO consolidation

•Non-FTTH bandwidth drivers for 10G PON are low volume•Non-FTTH bandwidth drivers for NGPON2 are speculative

Market needs are:• Bandwidth-independent• More customer-specific

2010 2015 2020

TWDM PON-ready ONU

•Red

uced

ope

x•O

NU

evo

lutio

n•S

ymm

etric

al b

andw

idth

•Res

ilien

cy a

t lo

wer

cos

t•L

ower

pow

er d

issi

patio

n


λ-stacked XG-PON“TWDM PON”

One λ per subscriberWDM PON

40G TDM PON“XLG-PON”

OLT

ONU

ONUONU

ONU

OLT

ONUONUONUONU

40G down

NGPON2 TRADE-OFFS

More on-demand bandwidth

10G up

4x10G down

4x2.5G up

40x1G down

40x1G up

ONU

ONUONU

ONU

OLT

More components and higher complexity

Higher speed components

Impl

emen

tatio

n

• Over time, cost will be determined by the no. of components and complexity

• In the short run, higher speed components cost more, but reduce over time

Non-compatible, less flexible.Loss ~insensitive to split ratio.Backwards-compatible, power-splitting

OD

N

Bandwidth

λ-agile, 4 λs λ-agile, 40 λsNo λ-agility req’d

Higher risk in 2015 Lower risk in 2015 Higher risk in 2015

Symmetrical bandwidth


6

Cost per sub

scribe

r

Time

WDM PON

TWDM‐PON

XLG‐PON

NGPON2 COST EVOLUTION QUALITATIVE PICTURE

If we needed NGPON2 today:•XLG-PON would be the most expensive: cost of 40G components and higher optical power•TWDM PON would the lowest cost: leverages existing XG-PON technology

At some point in the future:•XLG-PON will be the least expensive: fewest components, lowest complexity

Cost cross-over between XLG-PON and TWDM-PON

Point for BW per lambda shift ?Today


7

TRANSITION SCENARIOTWO GENERATIONS IN ONE

• Day 1: XG-PON with λ-agile ONUs:

ONU

ONUONU

ONU

4x10G down

4x2.5G up

OLT

λ-agile, 4 λs

ONU

ONU

10G down

2.5G up

OLT

λ-agile, 4 λs

XG-PON

40G -TWDM-PON• Future evolution to 40G PON- Replace XG-PON OLT line card TWDM-

PON line card with 4-λ capability

- Existing ONUs tune to correct λ


8

XLG‐PON

THE FORK IN THE ROADAND THE PATH FORWARD

Capacity

WDM PONTWDM PON

GPON

XG‐PON

Drivers:•Lowest risk for 2015 volume deployment•Transition from existing XG-PON deployments•Legacy ODN compatibility

Drivers:•Ultimately the lowest cost, but highest risk for 2015 volume deployment•Highest OLT port density•Legacy ODN compatibility

Drivers:•Large scale FTTBusiness: ≥1 Gb/s dedicated symmetrical bandwidth (high peak bandwidths not important)•SuperPONs (ultra-long reach/ultra-high split)

10G/2.5G

2.5G/1.25G

40G/10G

Technology

Michael peeters