Multi-Parameter Thermal Anomalies.ppt

China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing)

Satellite Thermal Anomalies before the MSatellite Thermal Anomalies before the MSS7.1 7.1

New Zealand Earthquake 2010New Zealand Earthquake 2010

Qin Kai

Wu Lixin

Guo Guangmeng

2011 IGARSS, 27 July 2011 • Vancouver2011 IGARSS, 27 July 2011 • Vancouver


Background

Data and result

Physical mechanism

OutlinesOutlines


Earthquakes are probably the most unexpected and devastating natural phenomenon on earth. From time immemorial, scientists have tried to understand it, however, forecasting and prediction of an earthquake was a remote possibility and is still today.

BackgroundBackground


If earthquake forewarns us before it really strikes, can we pick up any clue?

Can remote sensing technology provide us any approach to detect such clues?


EGU 2010, Validation of EQ Atmospheric signals

The first scientific description of thermal phenomena before earthquakes was observed in Japan and reported by John Milne(1913)


The first report of earthquake thermal anomalies is represented by Gazli earthquake March 19, 1984 (M=7.2).

Thermal IR image of 11.03.1984, one week before the earthquake - At the point of the intersection of the Tamdy-Tokraus and Karatau faults


Satellite thermal IR anomaly


BackgroundBackgroundSource: S. A. Pulinets, D. Ouzounov, (2006), Thermal, atmospheric and ionospheric anomalies around the time of the Colima

M7.8 earthquake of 21 January 2003, Annales Geophysicae (2006) 24: 835 - 849.

Sharp increase in the daytime temperature from the epicenter for the middle of January (about one week before the earthquake).


BackgroundBackground Qin Kai 2010: Surface latent heat flux (SLHF) anomaly before the

Apr 14, 2010 MS7.1 Yushu earthquake


BackgroundBackground According to the New Zealand GNS Science, a MS 7.1 earthquake happened on the

South Island of New Zealand (43.52°S, 172.17°E) UTC on Sept. 3, 2010. It is a result of strike-slip faulting as the Pacific and Australia plates interact in the central South Island.


Data and resultData and result

Two thermal parameters:

Skin temperature refers to the temperature of the surface layer of the earth.

SLHF can reflect water and heat exchange between the ground surface and the atmosphere, as a result of the heat absorbed or released by phase transitions (condensation, evaporation or melting) of atmospheric moisture.



Both of the two thermal parameters are from NCEP/NCAR assimilation data. it is generated by an analysis technique in which multi-source observations such as land surface, ship, pibal, aircraft, satellite, and other sensors are accumulated into the model state by taking advantage of consistency constraints with the laws of time evolution and physical properties.



A spot-shaped SLHF anomaly with a high value to the northeast of the epicenter on Aug. 1, 2010.


Local high-temperature anomalies of 3–6°C had appeared at the geothermal areas northeast of the epicenter, the center of the North Island and the southwestern South Island) on July 31 and Aug. 1, 2010.



If the thermal anomaly was

only a weather effect ?



Observations of the weather stations showed that near the thermal anomalies area there were just low-speed relatively-stable winds



Infrared satellite cloud map of FY-2D satellite showed that the weather conditions were mainly sunny with sporadic haze distributions



So, the local thermal anomalies about one month before the earthquake resulted neither from solar radiation enhancement of the reduced cloud (e.g., cloudy to clear), nor from a warm air mass effects, but rather most likely resulted from underground heat.


中国矿业大学 (北京 ) 3S 与沉陷工程研究所 www. dgmine. c omwww. dgmine. c om

Data and resultData and result The N-S displacement components of GPS stations in New Zealand recorded a

quasi-synchronous fluctuation on July 31 and Aug. 1 2010. This is consistent with the time of the thermal anomalies, and reflects tectonic activity enhancement before the earthquake.


Physical mechanismPhysical mechanism New Zealand is located on the tectonic plate boundary between the Australian

and Pacific plates. The oblique collision of the two plates causes the Pacific Plate to subduct beneath the Australian Plate, which forms a high-temperature and high-pressure zone in the lithosphere.


Physical mechanismPhysical mechanism The subduction process provides sufficient energy for hot material to upwell from

mantle, which leads to abundant geothermal activity such as hot springs and volcanoes.


First, the long-term tectonic activity in the interface region between the Pacific and Australian plates was enhanced in the latter period of the seismogenic process, leading to rock expansion and crack propagation in the local subduction zone and hence providing abundant channels for hot material upwelling from the deep crust and mantle.

Second, hot material resulted in the gradual expansion of the region and then caused local temperatures to increase in particular zones, which are connected with subsurface fluids.

Third, the surface temperature increment affected change in the difference between the humidity of the ground and the overlying surface air masses, hence resulting in local SLHF increases.

Physical mechanismPhysical mechanism


2011 IGARSS, 27 July 2011 • Vancouver2011 IGARSS, 27 July 2011 • Vancouver

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