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Innovating the Future - Rich Antcliff Slide 1
Innovating the Future Rich Antcliff
Chief Technologist NASA Langley Research Center
“Man’s mind stretched to a new idea never goes back to its original dimensions.”
--Oliver Wendell Holmes
Innovating the Future - Rich Antcliff Slide 3
Technological Exponentials
Quiz: Lily pads can grow fast. Imagine that you discover a variety of lily pads that can double in number every day.
It takes 100 days for them grow to cover a pond halfway.
How many days will it take to completely cover the pond?
Innovating the Future - Rich Antcliff Slide 6
Gathering data from multiple studies, Javier F. Medina, Michael D. Mauk, and their colleagues at the University of Texas Medical School devised a detailed bottom-up simulation of the cerebellum.
Their simulation includes over 10,000 simulated neurons and 300,000 synapses, and includes all of the principal types of cerebellum cells.
The Cerebellum
Reverse Engineering the Brain: the ultimate source of the templates of intelligence
IMPACTS OF ONGOING IT REVOLUTION UPON SOCIETY
• Work (at home telecommuting, reduced local/corporal travel) • Shopping (at home web based, (robotic?) delivery) • Entertainment/leisure (at home immersive 3-D interactive/multi-
sensory via VR/holographic projection) • Travel (3-D/interactive/multi-sensory tele-travel) • Education (at home low cost asynchronous, web based on-
demand, highly motivational, life-long distance learning, .edu) • Health (at home interactive tele-medicine) • Politics (increased real-time virtual involvement of the body
politic) • Commerce (tele-commerce already ubiquitous) • Tele/Digital/on-site Manufacturing • Tele-Socialization, Tele -[onsite] Manufacturing
Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org
Digital Transparency: Gmail, Lifelogs/Glogs
Next, some of us will store everything we’ve ever said. Then everything we’ve ever seen. All this storage, processing, and bandwidth makes us networkable in ways we never dreamed. Add NLP, collaborative filtering, and other early AI to this, and all this data begins turning into wisdom.
Gmail (2004) preserves every email we’ve ever typed. Gmailers are all bloggers who don’t know it.
Nokia’s Lifeblog (2004) (photos, movie clips, text messages, notes), SenseCam, What Was I Thinking, and MyLifeBits (2003) are early examples of “lifelogs,” (aka Cyborglogs or ‘glogs’), systems for recording, auto-archiving and auto-indexing all life experience.
Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org
Accelerating Public Transparency: Privacy vs. Anonymity
Hitachi’s mu-chip: RFID for paper currency
David Brin’s “Panopticon” The Transparent Society, 1998
Wearcam.org’s first gen ‘sousveillance’ systems
Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org
In the long run, we become seamless with our machines. No other credible long term futures have been proposed.
“Technology is becoming organic. Nature is becoming technologic.” (Brian Arthur, SFI)
Personality Capture
Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org
Your “Digital You” (Digital Twin)
Greg Panos (and Mother) PersonaFoundation.org
“I would never upload my consciousness into a machine.”
“I enjoy leaving behind stories about my life for my children.”
Prediction: When your mother dies in 2050, your digital mom will be “50% her.” When your best friend dies in 2080, your digital best friend will be “80% him.”
Successive approximation, seamless integration, subtle transition.
When you can shift your own conscious perspective between your electronic and biological components, the encapsulation and transcendence of the biological may begin to feel like only growth, not death.
We wouldn’t have it any other way.
Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org
Robo sapiens
AIST and Kawada’s HRP-2
(Something very cool about this algorithm…)
“Huey and Louey”
Aibo Soccer
Human- Related “Bio Revolution Products”
• Human Adaptation – Direct Photosynthesis – Micro g/Radiation Hardening (for Space) – “Water-Breathing”
• Human Amplification/”Cosmetics” – Dogs’ Nose, Cats’ ear , Strength Enhancement – Brain Augmentation – Custom features/”colors”,”Tails”?
• Human Maintenance/SERIOUS Life Extension – Disease Prevention – “Parts Replacement” – Currently,~.5 year/year heading to 1 year/year “Designer Humans”………
The “Ultimate” Education Approach - Plug and Play
Direct Silicon (or other such) device connection to brain, (very rapid) uploads, Education in minutes
instead of (many) years
PDA
Cell phone
PC
Percent of U.S. households with: 100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 Years since product invented
Television
Radio
Electricity Telephone
Air Travel
Automobile
Innovation is Accelerating
Sources: J. Gerry Purdy’s presentation “The Next 50 Years in Mobile and Wireless” at Silicom Ventures, Trade press, Industry sources
Internet
Center for Accelerating Innovation
Innovating the Future - Rich Antcliff Slide 22
Global Demographics
US Census Bureau International Database
Innovating the Future - Rich Antcliff Slide 24
Global Demographics
Germany
2000 0
50000
25000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
US
China
India
Japan
GDP ’03US$bn
Source: Goldman Sachs, Report 99
Innovating the Future - Rich Antcliff Slide 26
Global Demographics
• Engineering Graduates: • United States - 70,000 • All of Europe - 100,000 • India - 450,000 • China - 700,000
2005 data
“..but the quality of the engineers is poor” - SO WHAT!
http://inhome.rediff.com/money/2006/jun/09bspec.htm
Innovating the Future - Rich Antcliff Slide 28
Global Demographics
Those who ignore demographics will do so at their own peril - author unknown
Short breath
Innovating the Future - Rich Antcliff Slide 32
Climate Change
CO2
CO2 Concentration in Ice Core Samples andProjections for Next 100 Years
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
Years Before Present(B.P. -- 1950)
CO2 C
once
ntra
tion
(ppm
v)
Vostok RecordIPCC IS92a ScenarioLaw Dome RecordMauna Loa Record
Current(2001)
Projected(2100)
0100,000200,000300,000400,000
History should be our guide. The United States led the world’s economies in the 20th century because we led the world in innovation. Today, the competition is keener; the challenge is tougher; and that is why innovation is more important than ever. It is the key to good, new jobs for the 21st century. That’s how we will ensure a high quality of life for this generation and future generations.”
-President Barack Obama, August 5, 2009