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An analysis of failed predictions and what has changed over the past few years.
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(Not) Predicting What's Next(Not) Predicting What's Next
Zeh FernandoZeh Fernando
FirstbornFirstborn
August 2013August 2013
First big mistake:First big mistake:
Knowing everythingKnowing everything
“Technology changes quickly;People's minds change slowly”
– Bret Victor, “The Future of Programming”” - http://vimeo.com/71278954
Source: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xHEIOgONq6A
Source: http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/1995/02/26/the-internet-bah.html
– Cliff Stoll, “The Internet? Bah!” (February 1995)
“No online database will replace your daily newspaper”
“Nicholas Negroponte, director of the MIT Media Lab,
predicts that we'll soon buy books and newspapers
straight over the Intenet. Uh, sure”
“The network is missing a most essential ingredient of
capitalism: salespeople.”
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silicon_Snake_Oil
“Now, whenever I think I know what's happening, I
temper my thoughts: Might be wrong, Cliff...”
Source: KPCB Internet Trends 2013, slide 55 (http://www.slideshare.net/kleinerperkins/kpcb-internet-trends-2013)
Source: “What a difference a decade makes” (http://www.zdnet.com/blog/btl/what-a-difference-a-decade-makes-barrons-proclaims-amazon-best-retailer/15389)
“Once Wal-Mart decides to go after Amazon, there's no
contest”
“[Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos] is a middleman, and he will
likely be outflanked by companies that sell their wares
directly to consumers”
“Books can be printed out on traditional computer
printers”
The reality:The reality:
Amazon vs E-Commerce vs Retail SalesAmazon vs E-Commerce vs Retail Sales
Source: Business Insider (http://www.businessinsider.com/charts-of-the-week-emails-reign-is-over-social-networking-is-the-new-king-2010-4?op=1)
Modern smartphonesModern smartphones
iPhone first introduced in June 2007(6 years ago)
“There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get
any significant market share. No chance.”
Source: http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/money/companies/management/2007-04-29-ballmer-ceo-forum-usat_N.htm
– Steve Ballmer, CEO, Microsoft (April 2007)
“Try typing a web key on a touchscreen on an
Apple iPhone, that's a real challenge. You cannot
see what you type.”
Source: http://windowsphonethoughts.com/news/show/23449/rim-ceo-blasts-apple-and-windows-mobile-devices.html
– Mike Lazaridis, CEO, RIM (November 2007)
The reality:The reality:
20102010 20112011 20122012 2013201300
1010
2020
3030
4040
5050
6060
GoogleGoogle AppleApple RIMRIM MicrosoftMicrosoft
Smartphone Market Penetration in US, %Smartphone Market Penetration in US, %
Source: ComScore (http://www.fiercemobilecontent.com/pages/monthly-smartphone-ownership-figures-based-surveys-conducted-comscore)
The reality:The reality:
Smartphone Market Penetration Worldwide, in %Smartphone Market Penetration Worldwide, in %
Source: Gartner (http://www.statista.com/statistics/266136/global-market-share-held-by-smartphone-operating-systems/)
20092009 20102010 20112011 20122012 2013201300
1010
2020
3030
4040
5050
6060
7070
8080
9090
GoogleGoogle AppleApple MicrosoftMicrosoft RIMRIM NokiaNokia
Modern tabletsModern tablets
iPad first introduced in April 2010(3 years ago)
“A guy tried to take notes on one in a meeting with
me yesterday. That was fun. The meeting didn't go
real fast.”
Source: http://www.pcworld.com/article/198038/Ballmer_Bites_Back_Disses_the_iPad.html
– Steve Ballmer, CEO, Microsoft (June 2010)
“I think people are going to be using PCs in
greater and greater numbers for many years to
come”
The reality:The reality:
Tablet/PC Yearly Shipments Worldwide, in millionsTablet/PC Yearly Shipments Worldwide, in millions
Source: IDC (http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS24129713)
20102010 20112011 20122012 2013*2013* 2014*2014* 2015*2015* 2016*2016*00
5050
100100
150150
200200
250250
300300
350350
400400
TabletTablet Portable PCPortable PC All PCsAll PCs
The reality:The reality:
Top 5 PC vendors worldwide shipments, in thousandsTop 5 PC vendors worldwide shipments, in thousands
Source: IDC (http://www.businessinsider.com/the-pc-industry-implodes-2013-4)
Q1 2012Q1 2012 Q1 2013Q1 201300
55
1010
1515
2020
HPHP LenovoLenovo DellDell AcerAcer ASUSASUS
The reality:The reality:
Global PC shipments in Q4 2012Global PC shipments in Q4 2012
Source: Morgan Stanley Research, Gartner (http://www.slideshare.net/kleinerperkins/kpcb-internet-trends-2013)
The reality:The reality:
PC/iOS & Android Unit SalesPC/iOS & Android Unit Sales
Source: Asymco, “The PC Calamity” (http://www.asymco.com/2013/07/18/the-pc-calamity/)
(Outpacing PC sales 2.6 to 1)(Outpacing PC sales 2.6 to 1)
A high schooler guide to the future of A high schooler guide to the future of programming languagesprogramming languages
(Circa 1994)
C, COBOL, Clipper
The reality: most popular languages, TIOBE The reality: most popular languages, TIOBE Programming Community IndexProgramming Community Index
(August 2013)
C: #2
COBOL: #27
Clipper: ...
Source: TIOBE Programming Community Index for August 2013 (http://www.tiobe.com/index.php/content/paperinfo/tpci/index.html)
Second big mistake:Second big mistake:
Predicting what's coming next
Source: Street Cleaning, 1898 (http://books.google.com/books?id=CWlEAAAAMAAJ&printsec=frontcover#v=onepage&q&f=false)
Source: Villemard, World in 2000 as Predicted in 1910 (http://www.sadanduseless.com/2011/03/world-in-2000/)
Source: Villemard, World in 2000 as Predicted in 1910 (http://www.sadanduseless.com/2011/03/world-in-2000/)
Source: Villemard, World in 2000 as Predicted in 1910 (http://www.sadanduseless.com/2011/03/world-in-2000/)
Source: Arthur Radebaugh, "Closer Than We Think”, 1961 (http://paleofuture.gizmodo.com/forget-barcodes-1961s-cash-register-of-the-future-und-509145222)
Source: The Newspaper of Tomorrow, 1934 (http://blogs.smithsonianmag.com/paleofuture/2013/03/the-newspaper-of-tomorrow-11-predictions-from-yesteryear/)
Source: Future Passed, 1959 (http://www.theverge.com/2012/5/24/3035470/future-passed-television-history)
Source: Magic Highway USA, 1958 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L3funFSRAbU)
The unknown:The unknown:
Disruptive Innovation
“(...) successful companies can put too much emphasis on customers' current needs, and fail to adopt new technology or business models that will meet customers' unstated or future needs”
Disruptive InnovationDisruptive Innovation
Standard TechnologyStandard Technology Disruptive TechnologyDisruptive Technology
TimeTime
Util
ityU
tility
What about you?What about you?
Source: Thomas Jensen - Software Museum (http://thomasjensen.com/museum.shtml)
Thank you.Thank you.
@zeh@zeh
[email protected]@firstborn.com
http://zehfernando.comhttp://zehfernando.com