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2/5/14 pag. !1
Potential of human-robot interaction
for manufacturing
Prof dr ir Bram Vanderborght [email protected]
!Robotics Research Group Vrije Universiteit Brussel
2/5/14 pag.
2
122 Europe in figures — Eurostat yearbook 2011
Population
Figure 2.7: Median age of population(years)
1990Change 1990 to 2009
(1) Excluding French overseas departments.(2) Data may be affected by the change of population definition in 2008.(3) 2008 instead of 2009.
Source: Eurostat (demo_pjanind)
Figure 2.8: Population structure by major age groups, EU-27 (1)(% of total population)
19.5 17.2 15.6 15.4 14.5 14.0 14.1 14.0
66.8 67.2 67.2 64.6 61.9 59.2 57.1 56.0
10.6 12.3 12.7 14.4 16.6 18.0 17.8 17.8
6.9 8.9 11.0 12.1
3.1 3.3 5.74.5
0
25
50
75
100
1990 2000 2009 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
80+ years65-79 years15-64 years0-14 years
(1) Excluding French overseas departments; 2020 to 2060 data are EUROPOP2008 convergence scenario.
Source: Eurostat (demo_pjanind and proj_08c2150p)
!2
Ageing population
In 1990 Persons 65+ à 13,7 % Persons 85+ à 3,1 %
In 2060 Persons 65+ à 30% à increase with 250% k Persons 85+ à 12% à increase with 400% k
In 1990 67% of population support population
In 2060 Only 56% of population support population
Working population shall - Work harder - Work more To realize the same Today 40 hout/week à In 2060: 50 hour/week
2/5/14 pag. !3
Increasing life expectancy
Source: HEIDI data tool EU-‐Commission
In 1960 Life expectancy Belgium 69,66 years Av. EU 67,72 years !At age of 65 Belgium 13,52 years Av. EU 13,99 years
In 2008 (50 years later) Life expectancy Belgium 80,10 years Av. EU 78,66 years !At age of 65 Belgium 19,50 years Av. EU 18,46 years
For Belgium this is an increase of 18,2% over 50 years ! 1/5 longer life!!!
2/5/14 pag. !4
Increased need for assistance
Not only functional weakness, but mobility also affected by lower motor skills due to stroke or neurological misfunction
The need for Personal Assistance with everyday activities increases with age. !% of persons needing assistance with everyday activities by age
2/5/14 pag. !5
Increased health cost
Source: EU White Paper “Together for Health: A Strategic Approach for the EU 2008-2013”.
For Flanders by 2050 : • will be confronted much
stronger • its demographic pattern counts
more elderly people • And Healthcare costs are
higher in comparison with other EU countries !
• Today = 11,1% of GDP = 36,8 billion EUR !
• Increase of 25% = 9,2 billion EUR/year
For EU by 2050: !healthcare spending increase with 25%
Health is the greatest wealth!
2/5/14 pag. !7
Disruptive technologies: Advances that will transform life, business, and the global economy
Policy makers and societies need to prepare for future technology. To do this well, they will need a clear understanding of how technology might shape the global economy and society over the coming decades. !Since the Industrial Revolution, technology has had a unique role in powering growth and transforming economies. !The McKinsey Global Institute set out to identify which of these technologies could have a massive economically disruptive impact between now and 2025.
2/5/14 pag. !8
Study Gartner
• 2013 Hype Cycle on evolving relationship between human and machine.
• 3 trends: – Augmenting humans with technology – Machines replacing humans – Humans and machines working alongside each
other
Combine the best of the two worlds Machines • precision • repeatability • 3D jobs • … Humans • creativity • problem solving • dexterity • … !
Human robot interaction
2/5/14 pag.
Foresight study of Fraunhofer about the future technology domains Germany next 10-15 years
2/5/14 pag. !10
Robots are about to enter our daily life
Zora clip Reinout Verbeke
Probo
AMPFoot
Cyberlegs
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Need for a strong manufacturing industry
Manufacturing industry: 20% employment / 80% export Indirect employment: 2-5 jobs Manufacturing industry essential for other industries
(without product, nothing to transport). Manufacturing industry under pressure (Ford Genk,…) Innovation required !
2/5/14 pag.
Manufacturing industry: outflow to low cost countries
path manufacturing in low cost countriesJapan - South Korea - China - Vietnam - … !Labor costs: US: $23.32/hour Germany: 25.80$/hour China: 1.36$/hour !• Not sustainable • Loss of innovation • Loss of jobs !
2/5/14 pag.
Industrial robots
International Federation of Robotics (IFR) 2012: 1.15 million operational industrial robots 2015: 1.58 million robots (+36%) China will become the biggest robotics market in 2013 (to keep up competition). Robots sold to automotive OEMs +47% Robots sold to automotive component suppliers +21% Robots create jobs
(and with better quality)
2/5/14 pag.
Limitations industrial robots
• Big and heavy • Expensive • Dangerous • Requires skilled persons
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New generation co-workers
• Safety, faceless operation • Co-worker: social and physical human-robot interaction • Intuitive learning by demonstration • Suitable for unskilled employers • Suitable for low volumes • Cheap
2/5/14 pag.
Co-workers
Cheap 22.000 $ - 3,4$/hour Suitable for SME Learning by demonstration suitable for small quantities Safe: work with humans !!UBR-1 35.000$ Unbounded Robotics
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!
“Robotics is the fastest growing industry in the world, poised to become the largest in the next decade.”!
!
That’s the opening quote from a new report by Littler Mendelson, the world’s largest labor and employment law firm. The Report titled: “The Transformation of the Workplace Though Robotics, Artificial Intelligence (AI), and Automation”
2/5/14 pag.
Example Brussels airport
Staff in airport walks 20km a day !!!!Luggage handler moves 18 ton a day
How can they work longer? Use of assistive robotics
2/5/14 pag. !24
Conclusion
• Robots are about to enter new applications • Answer to societal challenges • Create new economic markets
• Robots will be in Factories of the Future • Robots will be Products of the Future • Robots will be everywhere in different forms and
applications, impact bigger than the internet • But still research necessary • Solve in a interdisciplinary research effort