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What are the key challenges for Tech companies? @dunstewart for more information.
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Predictions 2014Advance. Intelligence.
Predictions was first published in 2001
Death of the PC
67% at Oct ‘14
Which device is more important to you —that is, which device could you least do without?
(Among respondents who own both a laptop and a tablet)
Global Internet Traffic by Device Type
4K TV
8
11 Join the #Deloittepredicts conversation © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
Smartglasses
You know they are transparent, low-resolution, work only with a smartphone, cost ~$500, and may violate various laws, right?
Smartglasses for smartworkers
Is it time for smartwatches?
But what about fitness trackers?
We have had the decade of the device
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
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P
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E
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PCs Smartphones Gaming consoles TVs Tablets
The decade of the device
Bil
lio
ns
Smartphone replacement cycles are getting longer
18
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25
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013e 2014e
Ha
nds
et
rep
lac
em
en
t c
yc
le in
mo
nths
Source: US data, Recon Analytics, BI Intelligence
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
03A 04A 05A 06A 07A 08A 09A 10A 11A 12A 13P 14E 15E 16E 17E 18E
5 year trailing CAGR
Less money forhardware means
more money for…
U.S. consumer electronic sales as a percent of global sales of PCs, smartphones,
tablets, TVs and game consoles
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013P 2014E
67%
23%10%
5.1” to 5.9”
6.0” to 6.9”
Phablet ownership breakdown
5.0” to 5.1”
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Very likely Somewhat likely Neither likely norunlikely
Somewhat unlikely Very unlikely
After seeing Predictions, how likely are you to spend more money with Deloitte?
(normal distribution)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Very likely Somewhat likely Neither likely norunlikely
Somewhat unlikely I'd rather be attackedby weasels
Thinking about your next mobile device, how likely
are you to purchase a phablet?
(55+ only, n=351)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
18-34 35-54 55+
Likely (T2B)
Very Unlikely (BB)
Phablet intent to purchase as next
mobile device
n=184 n=230 n=129
16%Overall(n=1,032)
46%
Phablet intent to purchase as next
mobile device (cont’d)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
<HS HS Post Sec Univ Grad
Likely (T2B)
Unlikely (BB)
n=72 n=245 n=476 n=239
16%Overall(n=1,032)
46%
5.0 - 6.9 inches - phablets <5.0 inches
Phablets will be 25% of the global smartphone market of 1.2 billion devices.
At an ASP of $417, that’s $125 billion in sales.
Global smartphone sales
$0
$100
$200
$300
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PCs Smartphones Gaming consoles TVs Tablets
Putting $125B in context
Bil
lio
ns
APEJ portable PC, tablet and phablet shipments,
2011 Q4 - 2013 Q2
0 M
3 M
6 M
9 M
12 M
15 M
18 M
21 M
24 M
4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13
Unit Shipments
Portable PC Tablet Phablet
Source: The NPD Group, Inc. / Connected Intelligence /
Smartphone Usage Report, 3 months ending July 2013
Source: The NPD Group, Inc. / Connected Intelligence /
Smartphone Usage Report, 3 months ending July 2013
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Germany
France
Netherlands
United States
UK
Japan
Spain
South Korea
Singapore
Proportion of phablet owners having a smaller smartphone too
Source: Deloitte Global Mobile Consumer Survey, Developed countries, May-June 2013
Base: All Smartphone owners: 16, 378, Smartphone owners 12,313, Large smartphone owners 8,269
27.626.7 27.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14
Hours of traditional TV watched per week by all Canadians aged 2+
0–20% Quintile – average hours per week
4.13.8
3.63.4
3.1
5.8 5.9
4.94.6
4.33.9
7.5 7.6 7.5 7.6
7.16.9
7.16.8
6.6
7.1 7.0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013A 2014E
Av
era
ge
Ho
urs
pe
r W
ee
k
Total TV Eng (0-20%) Total TV French (0-20%)
Source: BBM Canada, P2+, Each year defined by 4 November weeks, M-Su 2a-2a
*PPMs introduced for Total TV Eng in 2009
Adjusted to compare to PPM data
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
18-34 35-54 55+ Male Female
n=244 n=437 n=351 n=454 n=578
Canadians who currently subscribe to a video subscription service (i.e. Netflix) or are in the free first month
Overall(n=1,032)
19%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
<HS HS Post Sec Univ Grad
Current Subs/First Month
Former Subs
Video subscription services (i.e. Netflix)
n=72 n=245 n=476 n=239
Overall(n=1,032)
19%
7%
H1 2014 North American Fixed
TMT Predictions tailored events
Duncan Stewart can deliver a presentation for your office/industry.
•Email Duncan: [email protected]
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•Read his blog: dunstewart.wordpress.com