Presentation - Dynamic modelling of material flows and sustainable resource use

Dynamic Modelling of Material Flows and Sustainable Resource Use

Dissertation colloquium, University of Lausanne

Emilia Suomalainen, PhD Candidate IPTEH, FGSE, University of Lausanne

Case Studies in Regional Metabolism and Space Life Support Systems

9 July 2012

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Presentation Outline

• Context

• Objectives & Research Questions

• Method: Dynamic Material Flow Analysis

• Case Studies: Results & Recommendations – Regional Metabolism in the Canton of Geneva

• Copper

• Phosphorus

• Wood

• Lithium

– Space Life Support Systems

• Conclusion

Background

• Resource scarcity and peaks

• Population growth & rising living standards

• Two aspects of sustainable resource use: 1. Environmental impacts

2. Depletion issues

=> This work focuses on quantitative depletion/scarcity issues

• Case studies 1. Regional metabolism: Canton of Geneva

2. Space life support systems (LSSs)

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Institutional Context

• Canton of Geneva – Law on public action for sustainable development (2001):

industrial ecology principles

– Article 12 on natural resources: reduction of consumption & dependence

– Ecosite working group

• European Space Agency – ALISSE project: evaluator for space life support systems

– „Sustainability laboratory‟ => Lessons for terrestrial systems?

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Objectives

• Objective: to study resource use and its sustainability in a quantitative modelling perspective – Canton of Geneva: analyse the sustainability of chosen resources

during the next few decades

– Space life support systems: analyse resource use and its sustainability in LSSs => Terrestrial applications

• Goal: provide information for decision-making in order to prevent, or at least prepare for, future resource shortages

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Research Questions

• Canton of Geneva – What could be the evolution(s) of resource use?

– Is the resource use sustainable?

– What strategies would allow to achieve a (more) sustainable situation?

• Space life support systems – How to evaluate the sustainability of space LSSs?

– What types of indicators can be used?

– How to compare different LSSs?

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Modelling Methods

• Existing methodologies: – Material Flow Analysis (MFA), static & dynamic

– Life Cycle Assessment

– Other methods (system dynamics, etc.)

• Chosen method: Dynamic Material Flow Analysis – Quantitative

– Dynamic

– Adapted to regional scale

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Dynamic Material Flow Analysis

• Dynamic MFA model types – Flow-driven vs. stock-based models

– Delay vs. leaching models

• Behaviour of the model: – Basic hypothesis: total consumption = per capita consumption

(constant) * population (function of time)

– Parameters: residence times in economic sectors, recycling rates, etc.

• Modelling tool (Canton of Geneva): Scilab

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Model Results = Predictions?

• Not a prediction but an illustration of possible future trajectories – “Examination of a set of „what if‟ hypotheses”

– Emphasis on system behaviour

– Example: Limits to Growth (World2) model

• Prediction involves a notion of probability (what is likely to happen in the future) – Accurate initial data

– Uncertainty analysis

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• Context

• Objective & Research Questions


• Case Studies: Results & Recommendations – Canton of Geneva

• Copper

• Phosphorus

• Wood

• Lithium


• Conclusion

Geneva Case Studies

• 3 quantitative case studies: – Copper (bulk metal)

– Phosphorus (agricultural nutrient)

– Wood (renewable resource)

• 1 qualitative study: – Lithium (critical metal) in electric mobility perspective

• ‘Business as Usual’ scenarios + alternative scenarios

• Simulation time: 2000/2006–2080

• Study includes both raw materials and resources incorporated in various products – Only direct flows taken into account

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Geneva Case Studies: Initial Data

• Copper – Faist Emmenegger & Frischknect (2003): MFA in Geneva

• Phosphorus – FOEN (2009) for Switzerland => normalized to Geneva

• Wood – Waste flows: Faessler et al. (2010)

– Sectorial parameters: Faist Emmenegger & Frischknect (2003)

• Lithium – Geneva & Swiss Federal Statistics Offices, USGS

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Canton of Geneva

Copper System

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Economic Sectors &

Households

Imports Landfills

Recycling Recycled

Landfilled

Exports

Copper: ‘Business as Usual’

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Flows: imports exports landfills recycling

Copper: ‘Building Waste Recycling’

Hypothesis: recycling rate in buildings & construction increases from 75% to 90%

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Copper: ‘Substitution in Roofing’

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Hypothesis: 100% substitution of copper in roofing and guttering

Copper: ‘Transition to E-Mobility’

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Hypothesis: 100% transition to electric mobility

Copper: ‘No Primary Copper’

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Hypothesis: net copper imports = recycled copper (primary copper consumption = 0)

Copper: Recommendations

• Development of substitutes?

‒ But: environmental impacts (e.g. aluminium)

• Increased recycling?

‒ Difficult (and costly) if recycling rate is already 80%

‒ Recycling done abroad

=> Does not increase autarky in the Canton?

Decreasing consumption?

‒ Lessens dependence in quantitative terms, but does not remove it

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Canton of Geneva

Phosphorus System

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Economic Sectors &

Households

Imports

Landfills

Recycling Exports

Landfilled

Exports

Water Systems

Water systems

Recycling Recycled

Phosphorus: ‘Business as Usual’

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Flows: imports exports landfills recycling exports (recycling) water systems

Phosphorus: ‘Sewage Sludge’

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Hypothesis: sewage sludge used as fertilizer, efficiency 40%

Phosphorus: ‘Meat and Bone Meal’

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Hypothesis: meat and bone meal used as fertilizer, efficiency 40%

Phosphorus: ‘Green Waste’

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Hypothesis: recycling rate of green waste increases from 55% to over 80%

Phosphorus: ‘Urine Recycling’

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Hypothesis: urine recycling providing 0.5 kgP/year/inhabitant

Phosphorus: Recommendations

• Goal: more recycling, reduction of dissipation – Current recycling rate only 16%

– Annual increase of stock in landfills = 80% of net imports

• Sewage sludge: problematic heavy metal content

• Urine recycling: promising for closing the loop – Health impacts, acceptability?

• Recommendation: study urine recycling (and the use of sewage sludge)

• New technological solutions?

‒ E.g. phosphorus capture from water

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Canton of Geneva

Wood System

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Economic Sectors &

Households

Imports Incineration

Wood energy

Exports

Incineration

Forests

Recycling

Wood: ‘Business as Usual’

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Flows: imports forests wood energy incinerated exports (recycling)

Wood: ‘Potential’ Scenario

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Flows: imports forests wood energy incinerated exports (recycling)

Hypothesis: harvests in the Canton increase from 5.4 kt to 6.9 kt

Wood: Recommendations

• The Canton produces less than 7% of consumed wood => Dependence on wood imports

• Development of the resource in Geneva difficult

Recommendation: develop local wood imports from the greater Geneva agglomeration

• No data on wood imports => Deduced from the waste flows

‒ Recommendation: collect more data on wood stocks and flows

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Lithium

• Lithium in the electric mobility (e-mobility) context – Circa 250,000 vehicles in the Canton => Replacement by EVs

would require 980 t of lithium

– Circa 5,000,000 motor vehicles in Switzerland => 21 kt of lithium (75% of the annual global production in 2010)

• Lithium sources – Imports: geopolitical issues?

– Seawater: uneconomic because of its energy consumption

– Recycling: currently almost inexistent

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Lithium: Recommendations

• Transition to e-mobility would increase lithium demand dramatically

• Recommendation: introduce recycling measures to save „easy‟ resources – Federal/European level

• Diversification of solutions for energy storage?

• E-mobility part of a larger context of green mobility

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• Context

• Objective & Research Questions


• Case Studies: Results & Recommendations – Canton of Geneva

• Copper

• Phosphorus

• Wood

• Lithium


• Conclusion

Space Life Support Systems

• LSSs: systems providing the crew of a spacecraft with the necessary metabolic consumables during a space mission

• Here focus on two air revitalization systems: – ARES (chemico-technical

system, crew of 7, one year)

– BIORAT (biological system, 2 mice, 1 month)

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Space Life Support Systems (2)

• Approach: 1. Define a generic stock and flow model for LSSs

2. Establish MFAs for ARES and BIORAT

3. Define sustainability indicators for LSSs

4. Build a simulation model

• Simulation model in Excel – Design parameters & system equations => Values of stocks and

flows

– Reference mission

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Space Life Support Systems (3)

• Indicators: – Direct material input

– Total mass of the system

– Total energy consumption

– Material use efficiency

– Recovery rate of used products

– Waste intensity

– Etc.

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Comparison of ARES & BIORAT

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• BIORAT better at recycling

• But: for the same amount of O2, its energy consumption = 10 x ARES

• The systems are dimensioned very differently, is comparison meaningful?

Space LSSs: Lessons for Terrestrial Systems

• Exemplary systems in terms of resource optimization – Engineered systems with circular design

=> Models for quasi-circular terrestrial systems

• Different constraints and issues than in terrestrial systems – Fixed resource stock vs. changing resource imports

– Mass vs. economic, social, etc. considerations

=> No help for solving bigger-picture issues

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Conclusion

• Resource use was studied with a modelling approach at regional level and in space life support systems – First dynamic look at resource metabolism in Geneva

– First attempt to evaluate and compare LSSs in terms of sustainability

• Advantages of the modelling approach: – Quantitative results

– Possibility to compare scenarios, analyse the continuation of current trends

– Sheds light on long-term phenomena, accumulation, feedbacks, etc.

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Conclusion (2)

• Limitations of the approach: – Economic factors not taken into account

– Environmental impacts not taken into account

– Global resource availability not taken into account

• Possible future directions: – Study more resources?

– Develop the model further?

– More accurate initial data (static MFAs)?

– Include economic factors / environmental impacts?

– LSS: dynamics, complete LSS?

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Thank you for your attention!

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APPENDICES

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Dynamic MFA (2)

• System definition (stock and flow diagram) for copper => System of equations

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Basic hypothesis

Parameters

Geneva Case Studies (2)

• Copper: – Widely used metal, variety of applications

– Exponentially growing global demand (4%/year)

• Phosphorus: – Vital to agriculture => Food security

– Peak of phosphate rock in 2030?

• Lithium: – Few highly concentrated sources

– Essential in a transition to electric mobility

• Wood: – Widely used renewable resource

– Sustainable energy resource

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Copper: Introduction

• The third most used metal in the world (after iron and aluminium)

• Uses: construction & buildings, telecommunications, transports, electric and electronic appliances, etc.

• Major producers: Chile, United States, Peru, China

• The global consumption is growing exponentially (4% per year)

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Copper Metabolism in Geneva

• Material flow analysis for year 2000 (Faist Emmenegger et al, 2003) – Apparent consumption

7.9 kg per capita

– In-use stocks 220 kg per capita

– Recycling efficiency rate 81%

– Recycling input rate 53%

Copper: Scenarios

1. „Business as Usual‟ – The per capita consumption remains constant (7.9 kg/person/year)

2. „90% recycling of Building Waste‟ scenario – The recycling rate in buildings was 75% in 2000

3. „Substitution of Copper in Roofing and Guttering‟ scenario – Roofs and gutters are responsible for 41% of copper use in buildings (buildings

correspond to 48% of total use)

4. „Transition to Electric Mobility‟ scenario – The quantity of copper in EVs is the double of the quantity in ICE vehicles

5. „No Primary Copper‟ scenario – The net imports in the Canton equal zero

Data source: Faist Emmenegger & Frischknect (2003)

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Copper: Simulation Results

• Business as Usual: consumption increases by nearly 20% by 2030 and by 50% by 2080

• More potential for consumption reduction via substitution than via recycling (but: environmental impacts?) – The recycling rate is already ca. 80%

• Transition to e-mobility would increase the annual consumption by only 5% (compared to BaU)

• „No primary copper‟ scenario: net imports would have to decrease by 60% by 2080

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Copper: Simulation Results

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imports exports landfills recycling

primary sector secondary sector tertiary sector households landfills

Business as Usual

Flows vs. Stocks

Copper: Simulation Results (2)

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Business as Usual

Recycling Substitution

No Primary Copper E-Mobility

Copper: Simulation Results (3)

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Stocks: primary sector secondary sector

tertiatry sector households landfills

Business as Usual Recycling Substitution

No Primary Copper

E-Mobility

Phosphorus: Introduction

• Indispensable in agriculture (fertilizers, animal feed) which represents 90% of global demand => An essential element for food security

• The primary source of phosphorus: phosphate rock

• Major producers: China, United States, Marocco (Western Sahara), Russia => ¾ of the world production

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• The peak of phosphate in 2030? (Cordell et al 2009)

• Dissipative use => eutrophication

Phosphorus: Scenarios

1. „Business as Usual‟ – The net consumption per capita remains constant (1.3 kg/an)

Three FOEN scenarios for closing the phosphorus loop:

2. „Use of Sewadge Sludge as Fertilizer‟ scenario – Efficiency of sewadge sludge as fertilizer 40%

3. „Use of Meat and Bone Meal as Fertilizer‟ scenario – Use of 40% MBM as fertilizer

4. „Increased Recycling of Green Waste‟ scenario – Recycling rate rises to 60% (at the moment 40% of organic waste are

recycled in Geneva)

5. „Urine Recycling‟ scenario – Recycling of human urine as fertilizer (0,5 kg/person/year)

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Phosphorus: Simulation Results

• FOEN scenarios: only the „Sewage sludge‟ scenario would bring a significant decrease in net imports (-16%)

• Urine recycling would allow to decrease net imports by more than 30% and slow down dissipation – Currently only 16% of phosphorus waste is recycled

– Annual increase of stock in landfills represents 80% of net imports => Fundamentally non-sustainable

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Phosphorus: Simulation Results

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imports exports landfills recycling water systems

primary sector secondary sector households landfills water systems

Business as Usual

Flows vs. Stocks

Phosphorus: Simulation Results (2)

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Business as Usual Sewage Sludge Meat and Bone Meal

Urine Recycling Green Waste

Phosphorus: Simulation Results (3)

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Stocks: primary sector secondary sector households landfills water systems

Business as Usual Sewage Sludge Meat and Bone Meal

Urine Recycling Green Waste

Wood: Introduction

• Forests cover 10% of the surface of the Canton

• The wood produced in the Canton is of mediocre quality and 90% is used as wood energy

• Annual wood production 5,400 t => base case

• Unexploited potential of 1‟500 t (Faessler et al. 2010) => „Potential‟ scenario

• Principal uses: buildings & construction, furniture, packaging, energy (paper and cardborad excluded)

• The recycling rate of wood waste (non-energy uses) is ca. 18%, the remainder is used for energy

• No reliable information on the wood imports to the Canton => the quantity is determined in function of the created waste

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Wood: Simulation Results

• Wood production in the Canton is 28% higher in the „Potential‟ scenario => Nevertheless, the total wood imports are less than 1% lower – According to the simulation, cantonal harvests represent currently

less than 7% of the total consumption

• The wood consumption increases ca. 6 kt every 10 years => 140 kt in 2080 or +56% (90 kt in 2006)

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Wood: Simulation Results

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Business as Usual

primary sector secondary sector tertiary sector households forests

imports forests wood energy incineration exports (recycling)

Flows vs. Stocks

Wood: Simulation Results (2)

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Business as Usual Potential

Flows

Stocks

Lithium: Introduction

• Analysed in the context of a transition to electric mobility (Lithium-ion batteries are for the moment the best energy storage technology)

• Fairly abondant on Earth but few highly-concentrated and economically interesting sources

• 70% of reserves are controlled by Chile, Bolivia and Argentina

• Seawater represents and important source but very high in energy consumption (explored by Japan and South-Korea)

• The global demand could rise exponentially if the electric vehicle (EV) makes its breakthrough

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Resource Use Strategies

• Strategies for (more) sustainable resource use – Efficiency

– Recycling (“closing the cycle”)

– Substitution

– Diminution of the per capita consumption

• The goal: absolute dematerialization or obtaning more services and goods from the same or lesser amount of materials (Erkman 2004)

• Population growth + stable per capita consumption => total consumption grows – Decrease of the per capita consumption or decrease of the

population ?

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Technology

Presentation - Dynamic modelling of material flows and sustainable resource use