1

THE HOT TOPIC

29 January 2008

Professor Sir David KingDirector, Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment

THE EARTH’S ATMOSPHERE

Source: Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program, A Report by the Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research (July 2003) [figure 3.1]

THE EARTH’S ENERGY BUDGET

                                                                                                                                               

       

Source: NASA

Source: Fedorov et al, Science 312 (2006) 1485

385ppm (2007)

OBSERVED GLOBAL TEMPERATURES

SIMULATED GLOBAL WARMING

Source: Hadley Centre

EUROPEAN TEMPERATURES 1900-2100

Source: Hadley Centre

Source: Hadley Centre

CLIMATE SENSITIVITY

Source: IPCC fourth assessment report

PREDICTED TEMPERATURE CONTROL

MELTING OF GREENLAND ICE SHEET

Source: Chen, J.L et al, Science Vol 313, pp1958-1960 (2006)

OBSERVED GLOBAL SEA LEVEL RISE

These data, from a satellite launched in 1992, show the rise in global average sea level over the last decade

Source: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment 2004

ARCTIC SEA ICE - EXTENT, 2007 • Increased access to resources

e.g. oil, gas, fishing reserves

• Opening up of arctic sea ice lanes

• Yet, lack of agreement over territorial claims

Source: National Snow and Ice Date Centre, 2007

INCREASE IN RAIN FROM GLOBAL WARMING

Year

% A

nom

aly

Tropic C

Source: Wentz, F.J et al, Science 317 233, 2007

Stabilisation at 750 ppm Stabilisation at 550 ppm

Change from the present day to the 2080s: unmitigated emissions

Reduction in change due to mitigated emissions scenarios

ANNUAL NUMBER OF PEOPLE FLOODED

Source: IPCC

POSSIBLE FLOODING IN THE UK BY 2080

ADAPT AND MITIGATE

• We must adapt in preparation for the significant changes ahead and manage the risks country by country.

• We have to actively mitigate against the production of greenhouse gases by:– Switching to low carbon energy sources– Energy efficiency– Developing new technologies

Emissions of CO2 from burning fossil-fuels have risen rapidly since 1950

Source: WRI CAIT

0

5

10

15

20

25

1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000

GT

C

o2

BURNING OF FOSSIL-FUELS

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

1971 2003 2010 2020 2030

Year

Mto

eFUTURE WORLD ENERGY DEMAND

Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2005

Source: Defra

THE RISE IN EMISSIONS TO 2100

DELAYING MITIGATION WILL BE COSTLY

Stabilising below 450ppm would require emissions to peak by 2010 with 6-10% p.a. decline thereafter

If emissions peak in 2020, we can stabilise below 550ppm if we achieve annual declines of 1 – 2.5% afterwards. A 10 year delay almost doubles the annual rate of decline required

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Glo

bal E

mis

sion

s (G

tCO

2e)

450ppm CO2e

500ppm CO2e (falling to450ppm CO2e in 2150)

550ppm CO2e

Business as Usual

50GtCO2e

70GtCO2e

65GtCO2e

Source: Stern Review

GLOBAL DIMENSIONS OF THE MITIGATION PROBLEM

Source: Carbon TrustSource: IPCC 4AR

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Year

% o

f 199

0 va

lue

UK Emissions UK GDP USA Emissions USA GDP

GDP AND EMISSIONS

Source: Defra e-Digest of Environmental Statistics

TAKING GLOBAL ACTION

1988 - IPCC1992 - United Nations Framework Convention on Climate

Change 1997 - Kyoto2003 - UK Government’s 60% target2005 - Emissions trading2005 - G8+5 Dialogue started2006 - UNFCCC COP 12, Nairobi2007 - IPCC 2007 - EU agree to cut CO2 emissions by 20% by 20202007 - UNFCCC COP 13 Bali2009 - New Global agreement?

THE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES INSTITUTE

In a business as usual scenario, most of the $20 trillion energy investment before 2030 would be in carbon-intensive technology

Source: WEO, IEA 2006,

ENERGY INVESTMENT

UK CO2 annualproduction

2007 2025 2050

THE WEDGES SOLUTION TO UK EMISSIONS

100 %

0 %

40 %

RenewablesEnergy efficiency

NuclearCCS

Transport

Decentralised energy and micro generationCHPFurther developments

100%

40%

Source: adapted from S.Pacala and R. Socolow, Science, vol205, pp 968-972, 13 August 2004

STO-STV080-20070116-A1-PD-Synthesis

26

2030

0 1 24 252 273 4 5 6 7 8 9

0

10

20

30

40

-10

-100

-110

-120

-130

-140

-150

-160

26

-30

-40

-50

-60

-70

-80

-90

19181716151413121110 20 21 22 23

-20

Cost of abatementEUR/tCO2e

Insulation improvements

Fuel efficient commercial vehicles

Lighting systems

Air Conditioning

Water heatingFuel efficient vehicles

Sugarcanebiofuel

Nuclear

Livestock/soils

Forestation

Industrialnon-CO2

CCS EOR;New coal

Industrial feedstock substitution

Wind;lowpen.

Forestation

Celluloseethanol CCS;

new coal

Soil

Avoided deforestation

America

Industrial motorsystems

Coal-to-gas shiftCCS;

coal retrofit

Waste

Industrial CCS

AbatementGtCO2e/year

AvoiddeforestationAsia

Stand-by losses

Co-firingbiomass

Smart transitSmall hydro

Industrial non-CO2

Airplane efficiency

Solar

• ~27 Gton CO2e below 40 EUR/ton (-46% vs. BAU)• ~7 Gton of negative and zero cost opportunities• Fragmentation of opportunities

Source: Enkvist et al, The McKinsey Quarterly, 2007, No.1

GLOBAL COST CURVE OF GHG ABATEMENT

• Market opportunities in the order of at least $500 billion globally by 2050, if the world responds to climate change on the scale required

• Global market for environmental goods and services projected to grow from $548bn in 2004 to $800bn by 2015

• EU Emissions Trading Scheme: from a standing start in 2005 London is today the leading centre for carbon trading, with a market worth over £9bn

SCALE OF OPPORTUNITIES

Source: IEA

WHAT IS NEEDED FOR A GLOBAL AGREEMENT?

• Global stabilisation level agreed

• Agreed national targets

• Carbon trading

• Technology transfer and adaptation strategy for developing countries– Bali Road Map is a start!

Demand frombusiness

21st century environmental challenges

THE SMITH SCHOOL OFENTERPRISE AND THE ENVIRONMENT

Demand from academics and students

Demand fromgovernments

NEED FOR A NEW APPROACH

Source: The Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University of Oxford

THE SMITH SCHOOL OF ENTERPRISE AND THE ENVIRONMENT

• Produce world-class research generating new body of knowledge on environmental issues at intersection of business, government and academe  

• Enable and inform active dialogue with senior opinion-formers

• Create global community of influencers with thorough understanding of latest thinking in this vital area

Source: The Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University of Oxford

THE HOT TOPIC