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Giovanni Rabino on "Spatial (Strategic) Foresight And Modelling Styles"
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1
SPATIAL (STRATEGIC) FORSIGHT
AND MODELLING STYLESaa
(outline for a paper)
1. Spatial (strategic) foresight – geoprospecting:the very nature
Giovanni RABINO
the very nature
2. Geoprospecting and modelling styles
3. Modelling geoprospecting in the light of complexity science
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WHAT IS GEO-PROSPECTION IS?
A MINIMALIST VIEW:
- (in french) La géoprospective se situe au carrefour de
trois approches scientifiques : la géoprospective
environnementale (Mermet 1992), la modélisation
Giovanni RABINO
environnementale (Mermet 1992), la modélisation
d'accompagnement (Etienne et al 2010) et la
modélisation des changements des modes
d'occupation et d'utilisation des sols (Kok 2004, Turner
2007);
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A MORE GENERAL PERSPECTIVE (RESEARCH
PROGRAMME):
- (in french) La géoprospective vise à anticiper les devenirs
possibles à moyen et/ou long termes des territoires pour
éclairer les actions et décisions d’aménagement et de
gestion. Sa spécificité repose sur la compréhension et la
prise en compte des dynamiques et interactions spatiales et
Giovanni RABINO
prise en compte des dynamiques et interactions spatiales et
la spatialisation des scenarios prospectifs. Dans ce cadre la
dimension spatiale est une composante intrinsèque, au
même titre que les dimensions démographiques, socio-
économiques ou historiques.
D’après plusieurs auteurs (Voiron 2006 ; Houet, 2006 ;
Houet & al 2008), la géoprospective ne peut se concevoir
sans modélisation spatiale dans son acception la plus
large.
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Giovanni RABINO
5Domain of forecast Power of
knowledge
Domain of prospection
Domain of prophecy,
projection, 0 Domain of utopia
Domain of adaptive
planning
Domain of rational-
comprehensive
planning
Giovanni RABINO
Power of
action
Domain of prospection
Domain of “carpe diem” Domain of the “blind
watchmaker “
Domain of “design
the future”
Domain of futurology
(prospection “per se”)
6Domain of forecast Power of
knowledge
Domain of prospection
Domain of prophecy,
projection, 0 Domain of utopia
Domain of adaptive
planning
Domain of rational-
comprehensive
planning
VisioningVisioning techniquestechniquesRegressionRegression and and statisticsstatistics
MacrosimulationMacrosimulation modelsmodels
MAS MAS modelsmodels; CA ; CA modelsmodels
Giovanni RABINO
Power of
action
Domain of prospection
Domain of “carpe diem” Domain of the “blind
watchmaker “
Domain of “design
the future”
Domain of futurology
(prospection “per se”)
SimulationSimulation gamesgames MethodsMethods ofof desingdesing
ScenariosScenarios
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THE LINK BETWEEN PROSPECTION AND MODELS
MODELLING CONTEXT:
Social reason for application, Modelist opinions and
beliefs, C
MODEL FUNCTION:
Action, Learning, Communication
Giovanni RABINO
Action, Learning, Communication
MODEL INTRINSIC CHARACTERISTICS:
Underlying theory, Mathematical aspects, C
MODEL DESIGN:
Model adaptation to the specific case-study
8Domain of forecast Power of
knowledge
Domain of prospection
Domain of prophecy,
projection, 0 Domain of utopia
Domain of adaptive
planning
Domain of rational-
comprehensive
planning
VisioningVisioning techniquestechniquesRegressionRegression and and statisticsstatistics
MacrosimulationMacrosimulation modelsmodels
MAS MAS modelsmodels; CA ; CA modelsmodels
Giovanni RABINO
Power of
action
Domain of prospection
Domain of “carpe diem” Domain of the “blind
watchmaker “
Domain of “design
the future”
Domain of futurology
(prospection “per se”)
SimulationSimulation gamesgames MethodsMethods ofof desingdesing
ScenariosScenarios
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Model for
global (geo)
properties
analysis
Morphological
level
Emerging
properties
OUTPUT:
Geoprospective/planning
Semantics of
geo-structures
Giovanni RABINO
Model of the
system
functions and
structure
Functional
level
properties
INPUTINPUT
GEO-INPUT
geo-structures
