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Presentation made by James Millington at IALE 2013 European Congress, September 2013
Citation preview
http://landscapemodelling.net
James D.A. Millington
Dept. of Geography, King’s College London
Representing cultural change
in ABMs of
socio-ecological systems
Agricultural Transitions
http://landscapemodelling.net
Agricultural Transitions
Policy shifts emphasising ‘non-productive’
uses of the land (multi-functionality)
http://landscapemodelling.net
Farming Intensity
Productivity
Low
High
Environmental
Sustainability
High
Low
Diversification
High
Low
Strong Multifunctionality
Weak Multifunctionality
Modelling Transitions
http://landscapemodelling.net
“…one key paradox is that the
grand challenges appear to
involve changes in behaviour,
which represent not a
continuous evolution of current
patterns of behaviour but often
radical shifts.”
Heppenstall et al. (2012)
p.744
Modelling Transitions
http://landscapemodelling.net
“How we use models which
simulate current patterns of
behaviour which need to
change if the key issues are to
be resolved poses enormous
difficulties for implementing
and using models that are
based on current and past
patterns of behaviour.”
Heppenstall et al. (2012)
p.744
Beyond Agent Types?
http://landscapemodelling.net
Valbuena et al. (2008)
Agricultural Transitions
Policy shifts emphasising ‘non-productive’
uses of the land (multi-functionality)
http://landscapemodelling.net
Farming Intensity
Productivity
Low
High
Environmental
Sustainability
High
Low
Diversification
High
Low
Meaning of ‘Farming’
and ‘Agriculture’
More than food and
fibre production
Solely food and
fibre production
Strong Multifunctionality
Weak Multifunctionality
Agricultural Transitions
What does it mean to be a farmer?
Burton and Wilson (2006) introduced social
psychology theory into analysis
http://landscapemodelling.net
“No farmer got income from
anything except farming”
Social Psychology Theory
People hold multiple self-concepts within their
self-identity in a hierarchy (Stryker and Burke 2000)
Farmer: Producer, Agri-business person,
Conservationist, Diversifier
People attempt to express their identity
through their behaviour
Identity changes slowly to match social
network if behaviour cannot match identity
http://landscapemodelling.net
Farmer Social Psychology
http://landscapemodelling.net
Agent-Based Model
... of Farmer Identity and Behaviour
http://landscapemodelling.net
Prices
http://landscapemodelling.net
Prices
http://landscapemodelling.net
Spatial variation
http://landscapemodelling.net
Gradient Quarters
Spatial variation
http://landscapemodelling.net
Neighbourhood rules
http://landscapemodelling.net
Cannot Ignore Neighbours Able to Ignore Neighbours
Neighbourhood rules
http://landscapemodelling.net
Cannot Ignore Neighbours Able to Ignore Neighbours
Initial Observations
Initial (productivist) identities are stubborn to
change and require external perturbation
Spatial distribution of resources can influence
transitions between agents
Rules for social network formation influences
which transition towards alternative identities
http://landscapemodelling.net
Empirical Challenges
Identity Change
How to parameterise rates of identify change?
Different self-concepts expressed in different
situations (including when talking to researchers!)
Social Network
Vast amount of data needed
Who knows whom? How often do they meet?
What do they do when they meet? etc…
http://landscapemodelling.net
Decisions and Identities
Social Psychology Theory
Identity has multiple, hierarchical self-concepts
Identity expressed through behaviour
Changes respond to social network when
behaviour cannot reflect identity
http://landscapemodelling.net
http://modelingcommons.org/browse/one_model/3442