David H. GustonProfessor of Politics and Global Studies

Co-Director, Consortium for Science, Policy and OutcomesDirector, Center for Nanotechnology in Society

Arizona State UniversityUSA

Anticipatory Governance of Emerging Technologies

Scientists and Engineers for AmericaVirtual Seminar

30 November 2010

1

Center for Nanotechnology in Society at ASU

• Funded by US National Science Foundation• One of ~ 18 Nano-scale Science and Engineering

Centers (NSECs)• Inspired by 21st Century Nanotechnology R&D Act of

2003 (PL 108-153) • Initial award $6.2 million (Oct 2005 – Sept 2010)• Renewed ($6.5M Oct 2010-Sept 2015)• Partner institutions across USA• Dozens of international contacts

2

CNS-ASU Mission

• Research the societal implications of nanotechnologies

• Train a community of scholars with new insight into the societal dimensions of nanoscale science & engineering (NSE)

• Engage the public, policy makers, business leaders, and NSE researchers in dialogues about the goals and implications of NSE

• Partner with NSE laboratories to introduce greater reflexiveness in the R&D process

Emerging TechnologiesNBIC: Nano, Bio, Info, Cogno

GRINN: Genetics, Robotics, Information, Neuro, Nano

But also: Railroads, Electricity, Nuclear Energy

Key elements:

Knowledge-based

Politics of Novelty

NSEC/CNS-ASU Research ProgramsReal-Time Technology Assessment

Provides methodological orientation1. Research and Innovation Systems

Analysis2. Public Opinion and Values3. Anticipation and Deliberation4. Reflexivity and Integration

Thematic Research ClustersProvides thematic focus5. Equity, Equality and Responsibility6. Urban Design, Materials & the Built

Environment (Nano & the City)

5

Anticipatory GovernanceProvides strategic vision

1. ForesightAll governance requires a

disposition toward future2. Engagement

Crucial normatively, strategically, pragmatically

3. IntegrationScientists know things we don’t, and

vice versa4. Ensemble-ization

Because none of these works in isolation

Anticipatory Governance as Strategic Vision

A broad-based capacity extended through society that can act on a variety of inputs to manage emerging knowledge-based technologies while such management is still possible.

6

Anticipate: from ante- and capere, “to take [into possession]” “beforehand”; related to capable and capacity and not a synonym for “expect,” “predict,” or “foresee”

The pumpkin or the tiger? If science is puzzle-solving, when do we begin to pay attention?

Anticipatory Governance – Genealogy

Detlev BronkPres., JHUPres., NAS

Pres., Rockefeller U

7

“Competent social scientists should work hand-in-hand with natural scientists, so that problems may be solved as they arise, and so that many of them may not arise in the first instance.”

“anticipatory democracy”

Anticipatory Governance – Not Government

8

• Not “do” or “ban”• “Science finds, genius invents, industry applies,

man adapts”• Moratoriums proposed by ETC Group and

Friends of the Earth• Wide array of mechanisms

• Regulation • Licensing/restrictions• Liability/indemnification• Intellectual property• R&D funding & tax credits• Testing• Treaties• Public Understanding of Science• Informal Science Education• Public engagement• Public action• Codes of conduct• Standards• Laboratory decisions

Foresight

• http://cns.asu.edu/nanofutures/– Literature-based– Vetted– Web-disseminated

• Scenario development workshops

• Product design• Plausibility Project

9

Engagement• National Citizens’

Technology Forum– 2008 Nano and Human

Enhancement

• Science Cafes• NISE Net

– Informal Science Education– Forums

10

Integration

• Socio-Technical Integration Research (STIR)

• Education/Training– PhD+– DC Summer Session– Curricular

• Undergraduate • Graduate

11

12

Strategic & Evaluative Guidance: Another Asilomar?

• Foresight: What vision of future did scientists at Asilomar have?• Determinist (“these things are coming, like it or

not”)• Distancing (“we don’t have the ability to do this

now so we don’t have to consider this stuff”) • Engagement: To what extent was the public

involved in the discussions?• Not at all (by invitation GRC)• Contrast: Cambridge city council hearings

• Integration: To what extent were social science and humanistic expertise represented in collaboration with natural science and engineering expertise?• Attorneys and journalists played crucial role• Ad hoc decision-making processes

12

13

Important Resources for Anticipatory Governance a la CNS

• R. Karinen and D. H. Guston. 2010. “Toward Anticipatory Governance: The Experience with Nanotechnology.” Pp. 217-232 in M. Kaiser, M. Kurath, S. Maasen, and C. Rehmann-Sutter, eds. Governing Future Technologies: Nanotechnology and the Rise of an Assessment Regime. Dordrecht: Springer.

• D. Barben, E. Fisher, C. Selin, and D. H. Guston. 2008. “Anticipatory Governance of Nanotechnology: Foresight, Engagement, and Integration.” Pp. 979-1000 in E. J. Hackett, O. Amsterdamska, M. E. Lynch, and J. Wajcman, eds., The New Handbook of Science and Technology Studies. Cambridge: MIT Press.

• D. H. Guston. 2008. “Innovation Policy: Not Just a Jumbo Shrimp.” Nature 454:940-41.

• D. H. Guston and D. Sarewitz. 2002. “Real-Time Technology Assessment.” Technology in Society 24:93-109.

13

14

CNS-ASU Updates

14

Encyclopedia of Nanoscience and Society (Guston, ed.) published by Sage (August, 2010).

Yearbook of Nanotechnology in Society (Cozzens and Wetmore, eds.) Nanotechnology and the Challenges of Equity, Equality and Development (November, 2010).

S.NET 2011: co-hosted by CNS-ASU and CNS-UCSB; to be held in Tempe, AZ November 2011

CNS-ASU Winter School in Anticipatory Governance of Emerging Technologies: Winter, 2011/12

Thanks!• Scientists and Engineers for America• National Science Foundation cooperative

agreement #0531194 and #0937591. Any opinions, findings and conclusions are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.

15