Launch of IFPRI Food Policy Report Beyond the Arab Awakening: Policies and Investments for

Food Security and Poverty Reduction

Presenter: Clemens Breisinger

Co-authors: Olivier Ecker, Perrihan Al-Riffai and Bingxin Yu

IFPRI-UN-ESCWA Conference “Food Secure Arab World”

Beirut, February 6-7, 2012

• We thank IFAD for supporting this research and the many people who made the report possible

• Available at www.ifpri.org in Arabic and English

In a data-scarce Arab world, the report suggests answers to three key questions

based on rigorous economic analysis:

1. Poverty puzzle: did the social indicators really improve as suggested by official numbers?

2. Food security question: how can food security be measured and what is the state in the Arab World

3. Growth puzzle: which policies and investments are key for achieving a food secure Arab World without poverty?

This presentation focuses on points 2 and 3 (policies)

Food security has a macro & micro dimension

Risk of food insecurity (at the micro level)

Source: Breisinger et al. 2012. “Beyond the Arab Awakening.” IFPRI Food Policy Report 25.

Risk of food insecurity (at the macro level)

Source: Breisinger et al. 2012. “Beyond the Arab Awakening.” IFPRI Food Policy Report 25.

Risk of food insecurity in Arab World (plus Iran and Turkey)

Source: Breisinger et al. 2012. “Beyond the Arab Awakening.” IFPRI Food Policy Report 25.

Which policies and investments can improve food security?

1. ‘Child health production function’: 𝐻𝑘 = 𝑓(𝐼𝑘 , 𝐸𝑘 , 𝜓𝑘) H = health status, I = health inputs, E = health environment factors, ψ = genetic health endowment of child k

2. Reduced-form child nutrition model: 𝑁𝑘 = 𝑓(𝑌𝑘 , …) N = nutritional status, Y = household income

=> Income elasticity wrt. nutritional status:

𝜂𝑘 =𝑑𝑁𝑘

𝑁𝑘

𝑑𝑌𝑘

𝑌𝑘=

𝑑𝑙𝑛𝑁𝑘

𝑑𝑙𝑛𝑌𝑘 , approx.: 𝑑𝑙𝑛𝑁𝑘 = 𝜂𝑘𝑑𝑙𝑛𝑌𝑘

3. Cross-country nutrition model (in first differences): 𝑑𝑙𝑛𝑁𝑖 = 𝜂𝑖𝑑𝑙𝑛𝑌𝑖 N = child nutrition situation, Y = national income of country i

4. Decomposition of growth by sectors: 𝑑𝑙𝑛𝑁𝑖 = (𝜂𝑖𝑥𝑠𝑖𝑥𝑥 𝑑𝑙𝑛𝑌𝑖𝑥) η = sector participation component, s = sector share component of sector x (Ag, non-Ag; Ag, Ma, In, Se value added)

5. Regression model (based on time series data): Δ𝑁𝑖𝑡 = 𝜋0 + 𝜂Δ𝑙𝑛𝑌𝑖𝑡 + 𝜑𝑁𝑖𝑡−1 + 𝛾𝑍𝑖 + 𝑢𝑖𝑡 N = prevalence of child undernutrition, Y = GDP per capita, t = time period, Z = trend effects

***, **, * statistically significant at the 1%, 5%, and 10% level, respectively.

Economic growth has to become more pro-poor in Arab countries, also in agriculture

Source: Breisinger et al. 2012. “Beyond the Arab Awakening.” IFPRI Food Policy Report 25.

One reason why agriculture is not as pro-poor in Arab countries is because it’s no longer the

major source of income for the poor

Selected messages for a food secure Arab world without poverty

• Risk of food insecurity is high in the Arab World, with large variation between countries and macro- and household level food insecurity

• For countries with household level food insecurity, focus on supporting job creating growth for the poor

• For countries with macro-level food insecurity, encourage exports to finance food imports and agriculture in countries with potential

While these messages apply for many Arab countries, it is clear that strategies and investments have to be country-owned and adopted to the country and sub-national levels.