Some Impacts of Technology Evolution on the Design of a New Internet

Antônio Marcos Alberti

Instituto Nacional de Telecomunicações - INATEL 510 João de Camargo, Santa Rita do Sapucaí, Minas Gerais, Brazil

alberti@inatel.brhttp://antonioalberti.blogspot.com

Outline

• Motivation and Contextualization

• The Role of Technology Evolution on FI Design (FID)

• Two Scenarios to Accelerate Technology Evolution

• Requirements and Challenges Towards the Vision of Online R&D

• Conclusion

Motivation and Contextualization (1/4)

• The Internet was designed at a time where substrate technologies, such as digital computing, communication and storage resources, were very limited.

• The first packet switching test of ARPANET was done in a TX-2 computer with 64K 36-bit words of core memory.

TX-2 Module. Source: Wikipedia.

Motivation and Contextualization (2/4)

• In 1973, ARPANET had 40 nodes and the assumption was that it would not have more than 256 networks! [Leiner 2009]

• Soon this estimate proved to be conservative.

• Even in the early 80‘s, the number of hosts on ARPANET already presented a exponential trend.

Question: Is it possible to predict how Internet numbers will evolve?

Motivation and Contextualization (3/4)

• Moore’s Law - Used by decades to predict technological developments in terms of computing capacity.

• Ray Kurzweil - Law of Accelerating Returns - two positive feedback loops occur during some technology evolution process.

Question: Is the current Internet prepared to face such exponental growths?

• Redesign is required.

Motivation and Contextualization (4/4)

• However, this time the technology landscape is quite different from the 60’s - it is much more dynamic, complex and diverse.

Question: How technology evolution will affect design this time?

Question: How designs can incorporate technological advances that are increasingly more frequent?

• Objectives:

The Role of Technology Evolution on FID (1/2)

• Question: How technology evolution will affect design this time?

• Technology evolution will deeply affect designs this time - the pace of change is impressive.

• To accomodate technology evolution in a flexible, homogeneous, holistic, and convergent way is a key issue!

• Besides, challenges that can not be addressed today, could be in a few years - estimatives need to consider exponential growths.

• Impacts of evolution are dual-faceted: they create not only more capacity, ubiquity, and connectivity, but also more scalability and complexity drawnbacks.

The Role of Technology Evolution on FID (2/2)

• Question: How designs can incorporate technological advances that are increasingly more frequent?

• Making R&D cycles online - the vision of Online R&D:

1. Indirect R&D over a developing facility compatible with an operational substrate resource provider.

2. Direct R&D over an operational substrate resource provider.

3. Indirect R&D over a third party experimental facility compatible with an operational substrate resource provider.

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Requirements and Challenges Behind Online R&D

• All hardware needs to be virtualized - however, FI research is not so generic.

• The partners of online R&D need to trust each other - a trustable R&D business ecosystem needs to be structured.

• Security and privacy need to be rethinked on the context of such ecosystem.

• Real-time resource virtualization is important to enable deployment of time-sensitive functionalities on software.

• Current autonomic initiatives are little concerned with accomodating acclerating technology evolution - FI requires better evolvability and sustainability.

Conclusion

• Online R&D accomodates technology evolution of substrate resources, software systems, virtual entities, and frameworks.

• The main advantages are flexibility, transparency, conformity to the user requirements and proximity to the operational scenarios.

• Virtual operators can participate at distance from milestones on R&D schedules.

• R&D of new substrate resources consider virtualization of their functionalities to operational parters in the business ecosystem.

Conclusion

• Online R&D of customized networks can be done over slices of virtualized resources.

• When R&D ends, the customized network is simply made operational.

• The online R&D facilities evaluation, comparison, migration and evolution of substrate and overlaid resources.

• In summary, designers and developers of the FI are also active part of the digital business ecosystems they are creating.