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2008/9 Technology Foresight Training ProgrammeModule 4: Technology Foresight for Corporations

27 – 30 October 2009, Bratislava, Slovakia

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New trends in the world economy

� Globalisation and changes in company structure

� Large companies have new possibilities, new markets more freedom to do the business

� Liberalisation is leading to the more intensive flow of capital and large corporations make use of new conditions

� Large corporations are creating regional and local networks of co-operating companies, mainly small and medium sized ones

� Networks are created by suppliers, who are providing to large corporations flexibility in the accomodation to the regional demand

� Large multinational corporations are bringing into the relation with SME´s new quality standards, creating new presure to decrease costs and high expactations concerning product and service improvements





� For small and medium sized companies it means higher pressure tofulfil expactations of large companies (MNC) and the driving force for them is to penetrate to networks with new innovative products and services, which could be achieved by technology innovation, management innovation

� Advantage for these companies is the enlargement of markets using the distrubution channels of MNCs

� Interesting paradox: in EU 15, SME´s bring more innovation to business as MNCs, in EU 10 are MNCs the main suppliers of new innovative ideas and products

� The main reason:

– Missing innovation culture

– Not existing efficient NIS (national innovation system)





� Difference between innovation content:

– In EU 15 is a higher portion of :

• In-house innovation (30% EU average, Slovakia 10%)

– Innovation based on outputs from direct R&D (EU – 3%, Slovakia –less as 1%)

• 5% of innovations were based on information sources from universities and R&D institutions, patents were sources for 3% of innovations in production companies, and 1% in service companies.

– In EU 10 is innovation based on horisontal technology trasfer, less vertical




Technology transfer schemes

Vertical transfer

4.Development4.Development4.Development4.Development

3.Appliedresearch

2.Strategicresearch

1.Basic research

BasicBasicBasicBasicapplication applicationapplicationapplicationapplication applicationapplicationapplicationapplicationapplication

Horisontal transfer




Push – pull effect

� Push – pull effect

� In the most developed countries the prevailing direction is „pull effect“ based on the real market demand

� In the less developed countries there is no market demand and R&D institutions outputs are not needed,

� The pull market effect is replaced by institutional state/publicpressure on R&D institutions (universities, academies of sciences) to place inventions into businesses




Innovation performance in EU Európsky inovačný scoreboard 2008




Message 1

Level of innovation in small and medium sized companies is low and not appropriate to the needs of their competitivness.




Missing transfer from RRRR&D&D&D&D

The main reason of this incongruity is based on:

– cultural attitude inherited from the period of centrally plannedeconomy when „ R&D activities were not worse any interest“

– Other reason is the orientation of R&D institutions, where the content of research is missing the need of companies based on the demand of market.

The research topics are selected very often on the previous conservative abilities of R&D institutions and not on the basis of future needs of companies. Foresight is missing.

Enterprises, especially micro and small, are solving more existing and existence problems and they lack future orientation.Future view.




Message 2

Foresight is missing for the better definition of R&D activities and for the more efficient and intensive flow of outputs to companies




Innovation

Innovation is ever more important in today’s increasingly global, increasingly knowledge-based economy. Competitiveness depends, to a far larger extent today than in the past, on the ability of manufacturing and service sectors to meet fast-changing market needs quickly and efficiently through the application of new technology.

(B U I L D I N G A N I N N O V A T I V E E C O N O M Y I N E U R O P E)




Innovation

Innovation is pervasive and diverse. It does –and should – take place in firms of all size, in every region and in every sector, not just in ‘naturally innovative’ high-tech sectors such as biotechnology and information technology.




Innovation

Innovation is unevenly distributed.

The innovation performance of Member States, and of different regions within individual Member States, varies very widely.




Innovation

Innovative products (recently introduced or improved) account for fully one-third of all European manufacturing sales – but this means that the great majority of Europe’s industrial turnover derives from products which have remained unchanged for at least three years.




Message 3

Innovation of products and services is slow




SMEs

„Mass production“ production is being replaced by „fllexibility economy“, where life cycles of products and services are continually decreasing and more small and medium sized companies are involved in the process and they are providing to the whole economy requested flexibility.

The number of small companies has been growing and it exceeds 99% of all companies as a consequence of these trends.




SME´s

The European average of number of company´s employees is 7.

It means that the European economy – employment, growth and stability depends on small companies.

The number of small companies which become extinct is high, the employment changes are also high, but the adaption to the economic deviations (market instability, credit crunch,..) is quicker, less complicated and more efficient as it is at MNCs.




SME´s and business planning

SME´s are behaving in a different way. The bigger company, the higher sophistication of management.

More rules, more standards, more defined relations. Division of tasks and responsibilities is clearly defined.

Only 5% of „micro“ companies have a business plan.

Less than 20% small companies (50 employees or less ) work with business plan.Majority of them have plans for short-term (1 year), very small portion describes medium-term objectives and long-term planning occurs very rarely.

In UK only 10% of companies (medium sized and large)are using foresight exercises for future planning.




SME´s and large companies

Small large company

Management sophistication

Bureucracy




Message 4

Small companies concentrate their management effort more Small companies concentrate their management effort more Small companies concentrate their management effort more Small companies concentrate their management effort more to the operative issues and less to the future.to the operative issues and less to the future.to the operative issues and less to the future.to the operative issues and less to the future.




How to continue

Role of advisors, consultants and stakeholders is to convince companies to focus more to:

- Innovation

- Foresight.




Why?

Why to innovate, why to do a foresight exercise?

Two case studies:

Regional development – why innovation and foresight

Mr.Bielik – succesful plagiarist?




Definition of corporate foresight (Jemala,2009)

Corporate foresight is an action-oriented systematic process that should integrate all types of foresight (research, technology, competitive, consumers´ foresight) at the corporate level. This process is not only about the study of the past or current plans and future predictions within a company. These are only related processes that can help to integrate strategic business processes through consecutive systematic actions in different areas. But these systematic efforts must create anticipative intelligence and functional networks that will enable a company to benefit from the future.




Possibilities for SME´s

There are no unified procedures of foresight and the mix of used techniques differ in relation to:- objectives of the foresight exercise, - stakeholders, - participants, - sectors and - financial coverage.

Due to the complexity foresight studies require substantial source of financial means, which can not be covered by SME´s themselves. Solution: - governmental studies, activities of industrial associations, chambers of commerce – technology platforms

The foresight is a rather complex approach and for SME´s it is difficult to participate – missing qualified human sources.




Foresight techniques

SWOT, Benchmarking, Data analysis, Bibliometrical analysis, Process analysis, Environmental scanning, Cross-impact analyses, ...... Analysis and scanning... Workshops, Expert panels... Understanding..., Brainstorming, Brainwriting, Delphi, Key technologies, Modelling, Wild card, Surveys,..... Anticipation..., Roadmapping, Scenarios, Simulations, Backcasting....Planning




Decrease of price, create conditions for the participation

For the utilisation of foresight techniques by SME´s is important :

- to simplify the whole process of foresight

- to provide companies a transparent user friedly manual.

- networking - some companies are networking, creating partnerships to enable execution of a foresight study

- to educate, train management of companies (selection of appropriate techniques is the key task of foresight exercise)

- governmental programs have to encourage SME´s in the participation in national foresight activities (and to get

response from wider circle of businesses).




What is foresight?

The role of foresight is to create a vision of future, a participative picture of possible scenarios, which could be influenced by actions of today.

Foresight has social features and is not only a mathematical solution.

What differs foresight from other forecasting methods?

It is a structured anticipatory dialog ....




Outputs of foresight exercises:

� Political recommendations (user are national and regional authorities)

� Identification of trends (national authorities, corporations)

� Scenarios (national authorities,regional authorities, corporations )

� R&D priorities (national authorities, corporations)

� Key technologies (professional associations, corporations)

� Prognosis (national authorities,regional authorities, corporations)

� Roadmapps (national authorities,regional authorities, corporations).




Why to participate in foresight (1)

Corporations, MNC´s:

� To anticipate trends in sectors, industry, society (even they are not trends yet)

� To accomodate business goals to the real possibilities of corporation

� To be prepared for the changes in market, to increase imunity of company against market failures

� To prepare proper strategy for companies

� To identify need of new processes, technologies (technology foresight), products (production companies are very sensitive to new developments)

� To find wider social relations in doing business

� To identify the proper field for R&D

� To avoid or to decrease the future possible risk, avoid critical situation




Why to participate in foresight (2)Corporations, MNC´s:

� To improve the decision making process of corporations� To create conditions for better and easier selection and set up of

company priorities, objectives, strategies and investments� Many corporations are aware that the technological and R&D push

must meet environmental, social and market pull. This „equiation“works only in a long-term platform

� Foresight is participative and corporations get back a feed backfrom a bigger sample. Debates, brainstorming sessions provide many useful outputs

� Foresight has a multidimensional feature and it detects cross impacts of more variables, so it gives more comprehensive and possible picture about future

� Examples: IBM, Nestlé, Simens, NASA, Motorola (R.Galvin – Six Sigma, roadmapping, In the early 1990s, U.S. semiconductor competitors decided to work together to solve some of the more basic, confounding, but precompetitive, technical barriers whose impact was a concern to our companies over a 15-year time horizon.)




Why to participate in foresight

Small and medium sized companies:

� To anticipate trends in sectors, industry, society

� To analyze the development of key technologies

� To be prepared for the changes in market

� To prepare proper strategy for companies

� To identify need of new technologies, processes, products

� To find wider social relations in doing business

� To avoid or to decrease the future possible risk

� To overcome the influx of information about future development

� To create conditions for better and easier selection and set up of company priorities, objectives, strategies and investments

� Due to the participative feature of foresight, SME gets a broader view on future (convince them, that they need future perspective not only, data of tommorrow)




Case study

Establishment of a business centre in 1996.

- 1995: long term lease of a building in ruins for 30 years

- 1995: start of creation of a future picture of utilisation of the building 2005, 2015, 2025 – several scenarios of future services

- 1995: brainstorming sessions – involvement stakeholders, architects

- 1995: selection of scenario

- 1995: start of reconstruction

- 1996: marketing plans development and roadmapping

- 1996: first clients

- 1998: first survey focused to

- 1998: second stage of foresight exercise

- 1999: second building lease




Case study

- 2001: start of reconstruction and first clients

- 2003: third foresight exercise, new services (training room, pub)

- 2005 - 8: new facilities

- 2009: third foresight exercise – new conditions - how to handle with crisis




Ján Strelecký

BIC Group, s.r.o.

Zochova 5

811 03 Bratislava 1

[email protected]