the problem.

the world suspects bees are declining

Shrill Carder Bumblebee DistributionData from NBN, with particular thanks to BWARS.

We do not know if there is a crisis nor have we identified how and where to target our

conservation measures because until now, there is

NO NORTH AMERICAN MONITORING PROGRAM

the solution.

develop a monitoring plan

Evaluate methods

Determine where and how many sites you would need to detect declines

Evaluate cost

methods

CV = SD/Mean

It doesn’t matter which technique you use, so go with cheap, easy and standardizable.

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 350

5

10

15

20

Minckley Dry Site 8

Mao TauChao2Jack2

Number of bowls

Num

ber o

f spe

cies

24 pan traps per transect 8 blue8 yellow8 white

Sample every 2 weeksAt a minimum, sample every fifth year on a rolling basis

methods

develop a monitoring plan

Evaluate methods

Determine how many sites you would need to detect declines

Evaluate cost

decisions

used multi-year trap studies

estimated number of samples using power analysis

good versus bad sampling

>80% probability of detecting a change if one is occurring

> 1-3% change in population per year

declines

Years

2 4 6 8 10

Pe

rce

nt

Re

ma

inin

g

0

20

40

60

80

100

1% Annual Decline2% Annual Decline5% Annual Decline7% Annual Decline

How many sites?Detecting a decline in the number of species

= 0.20

Number of Sites Monitored

50 100 150 200 250 300

Po

we

r

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1% Annual Decline2% Annual Decline5% Annual Decline7% Annual Decline

= 0.20

Number of Sites Monitored

50 100 150 200 250 300

Po

we

r

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1% Annual Decline2% Annual Decline5% Annual Decline7% Annual Decline

How many sites?Detecting a decline in the abundance of bees

number of sites

with 100 sites, we should be able to detect even a 2% decline in both the abundance and number of species

of bees

with slightly over 200 sites, we can pick up a 1% decline

many individual species can be monitored

Wow

develop a monitoring plan

Evaluate methods

Determine where and how many sites you would need to detect declines

Evaluate cost

product

• Results in 5 years– Change in abundance– Change in total species– Changes in major guilds and genera– Changes in common abundant species– Maps of distributions– Maps of change– Public database of all records– Tons of specimens for collections, dna, revisions, display,

etc.– Web-based yearly reports

longer term results

long-term product

• Trends for individual species• Regional trends• Ability to detect large scale crashes for any

year• Ability to compare to Canadian system• Ability to compare to European system• Ability to compare to UN-FAO sites

more long-term product

• Standardized methodology permits comparisons among sites– Patterns of distribution– Patterns of abundance– Patterns of composition– Patterns of fluctuations– Community analyses– Biogeography analyses

the cost.

cost per site

Labor

Collection • a few hours

Processing• 1/10 of an FTE

• each site run only every 5 years

Supplies and Equipment

• $2,200

other costs

Full time coordinator for the length of the project

develop a monitoring plan

Evaluate methods

Determine where and how many sites you would need to detect declines

Evaluate cost

a future.

4 separate sampling systems – National Forests– Fish and Wildlife Service Refuges– National Parks– Commercial Orchards or other Ag Systems

usfs

sampling – For each of the four groups

year 1 – 50 new sitesyear 2 – 50 new sitesyear 4 – 50 new sitesyear 5 – first 50 are repeated…und so weiter

centralized processing

• 2 sorting, processing, identification, and databasing centers (West and East)

• 170,000 bees a year between the two• Efficiency of scale• 1 central coordinator• 2 FTE’s doing the specimen processing

New York Times reports:“Bees in North America NOT declining!” - Laurie Davies Adams,

NAPPC 2015

mission accomplished