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Year1947 5600000 345085 16.000000001948 5600000 349430 16.000000001949 6000000 353832 16.000000001950 6500000 371 857 17.000000001951 6000000 378 201 15.000000001952 7500000 384 823 19.000000001953 8000000 391 725 20.000000001954 9000000 398 908 22.000000001955 8500000 406 374 20.000000001956 9100000 414 120 21.000000001957 7200000 422 145 17.000000001958 9700000 430 442 22.000000001959 10100000 439 009 23.000000001960 10900000 447 844 24.000000001961 10997000 456 950 24.0661018111962 12072000 466 337 25.8868566471963 10776000 476 025 22.6374595291964 9853000 486 039 20.2720380771965 12257000 496 400 24.691761871966 10394000 507 115 20.4963205111967 11393000 518 192 21.9860421231968 16540100 529 658 31.2278729371969 18651600 541 545 34.441483391970 20093300 553 874 36.2777526851971 23832500 566 651 42.0584801831972 26409900 579 871 45.5444341661973 24734600 593 527 41.6739513021974 21778000 607 607 35.842272141975 24104400 622 097 38.7470319281976 28846300 636 993 45.2851419581977 29009900 656 000 44.2224085371978 31749200 667 917 47.5346176661979 35507800 683 857 51.9228198291980 31830000 700 059 45.4676229961981 36312600 716 493 50.6810036381982 37451800 733 152 51.0832839581983 42793900 750 034 57.055981866
Total Production (tonnes)
Total Population (in 1000)
Percapita (kg)
MotivationIndia obtained its independence from British colonization in 1947. Unfortunately after independence India was divided into three parts which are current India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. During partition, India lost western Punjab to Pakistan,which was the fertile river basin and was the epicenter of major crop production for undivided India, thus losing a major agricultural resource. A couple of bad monsoon seasons followed. In 1955, India faced a food crisis reminiscent of Bengal famine of 1943. India needed a revolution.The period 1967 to 1978 is known as Green Revolution. India promoted increased farming land, developed and used grains hardened against pests, promoted double crop year and better irrigation techniques. Finally, India is not only self sufficient. India is second largest producer of wheat in World next to China and it has become an exporter for many of the grains, especially Rice.
NAME: Aditya ParmarCOUNTRY : INDIA SUBJECT: Analysis of percapita availability of Wheat for Indian population since 1947 to 2010. INSTITUTE: Institute of Agricultural EngineeringSUPERVISOR: Prof. J. Müller
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200.00000000
10.00000000
20.00000000
30.00000000
40.00000000
50.00000000
60.00000000
70.00000000
80.00000000
Percapita (kg/year)
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 205596.4
96.6
96.8
97
97.2
97.4
97.6
97.8
98
98.2
98.4
Estimated Percapita ( kg/Year)
1984 45476000 767 147 59.2793969091985 44068800 784 491 56.1750343541986 47051800 802 052 58.6642903211987 44322900 819 800 54.0655001541988 46169400 837 700 55.1145015071989 54110200 855 707 63.234468531990 49849500 873 785 57.0500459321991 55134500 891 910 61.8162021651992 55689500 910 065 61.1929103371993 57210100 928 226 61.6338013121994 59840000 946 373 63.2308614251995 65767400 964 486 68.1890555491996 62097400 982 553 63.2000350211997 69350200 1 000 558 69.3115141941998 66345000 1 018 471 65.1417574141999 71287500 1 036 259 68.7931509472000 76368900 1 053 898 72.4632670772001 69680900 1 071 374 65.0388032842002 72766300 1 088 694 66.8381516322003 65760800 1 105 886 59.4643738082004 72156200 1 122 991 64.2535760872005 68636900 1 140 043 60.2055433422006 69354500 1 157 039 59.941391462007 75806700 1 173 972 64.5728551932008 78570200 1 190 864 65.9774929622009 80680000 1 207 740 66.802434915
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 205596.4
96.6
96.8
97
97.2
97.4
97.6
97.8
98
98.2
98.4
Estimated Percapita ( kg/Year)
Discussion
Due to the adoption of new dwarf, high-yielding and fertilizer-responsive varieties, marked increase in the area under cultivation and by a substantial increase in fertilizer application, irrigation and pesticide application this increase in the yield was made possible during the Green Revolution period of 1970s to 1980s.
Our estimates from the linear trend is showing a percapita avialability of just above 98kg/year. This is a very generous estimation, some studies have been conducted and it is seen that the area under cultivation, which increased rapidly in the early stages of the green revolution, is no longer increasing – in fact there is a decrease in the last two decades.
At present, the land under irrigation is increasing more slowly than in the past two or three decades and in future, the rate of irrigated land going out of production (due to salinity, water logging, etc.) may well exceed the rate of new land brought under irrigation. We expect the decrease in area under cultivation contributes towards a decrease in the growth rate of production.
MotivationIndia obtained its independence from British colonization in 1947. Unfortunately after independence India was divided into three parts which are current India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. During partition, India lost western Punjab to Pakistan,which was the fertile river basin and was the epicenter of major crop production for undivided India, thus losing a major agricultural resource. A couple of bad monsoon seasons followed. In 1955, India faced a food crisis reminiscent of Bengal famine of 1943. India needed a revolution.The period 1967 to 1978 is known as Green Revolution. India promoted increased farming land, developed and used grains hardened against pests, promoted double crop year and better irrigation techniques. Finally, India is not only self sufficient. India is second largest producer of wheat in World next to China and it has become an exporter for many of the grains, especially Rice.
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200.00000000
10.00000000
20.00000000
30.00000000
40.00000000
50.00000000
60.00000000
70.00000000
80.00000000
Percapita (kg/year)
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 205596.4
96.6
96.8
97
97.2
97.4
97.6
97.8
98
98.2
98.4
Estimated Percapita ( kg/Year)
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 205596.4
96.6
96.8
97
97.2
97.4
97.6
97.8
98
98.2
98.4
Estimated Percapita ( kg/Year)
Discussion
Due to the adoption of new dwarf, high-yielding and fertilizer-responsive varieties, marked increase in the area under cultivation and by a substantial increase in fertilizer application, irrigation and pesticide application this increase in the yield was made possible during the Green Revolution period of 1970s to 1980s.
Our estimates from the linear trend is showing a percapita avialability of just above 98kg/year. This is a very generous estimation, some studies have been conducted and it is seen that the area under cultivation, which increased rapidly in the early stages of the green revolution, is no longer increasing – in fact there is a decrease in the last two decades.
At present, the land under irrigation is increasing more slowly than in the past two or three decades and in future, the rate of irrigated land going out of production (due to salinity, water logging, etc.) may well exceed the rate of new land brought under irrigation. We expect the decrease in area under cultivation contributes towards a decrease in the growth rate of production.
MotivationIndia obtained its independence from British colonization in 1947. Unfortunately after independence India was divided into three parts which are current India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. During partition, India lost western Punjab to Pakistan,which was the fertile river basin and was the epicenter of major crop production for undivided India, thus losing a major agricultural resource. A couple of bad monsoon seasons followed. In 1955, India faced a food crisis reminiscent of Bengal famine of 1943. India needed a revolution.The period 1967 to 1978 is known as Green Revolution. India promoted increased farming land, developed and used grains hardened against pests, promoted double crop year and better irrigation techniques. Finally, India is not only self sufficient. India is second largest producer of wheat in World next to China and it has become an exporter for many of the grains, especially Rice.
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200.00000000
10.00000000
20.00000000
30.00000000
40.00000000
50.00000000
60.00000000
70.00000000
80.00000000
Percapita (kg/year)
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 205596.4
96.6
96.8
97
97.2
97.4
97.6
97.8
98
98.2
98.4
Estimated Percapita ( kg/Year)
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 205596.4
96.6
96.8
97
97.2
97.4
97.6
97.8
98
98.2
98.4
Estimated Percapita ( kg/Year)
Discussion
Due to the adoption of new dwarf, high-yielding and fertilizer-responsive varieties, marked increase in the area under cultivation and by a substantial increase in fertilizer application, irrigation and pesticide application this increase in the yield was made possible during the Green Revolution period of 1970s to 1980s.
Our estimates from the linear trend is showing a percapita avialability of just above 98kg/year. This is a very generous estimation, some studies have been conducted and it is seen that the area under cultivation, which increased rapidly in the early stages of the green revolution, is no longer increasing – in fact there is a decrease in the last two decades.
At present, the land under irrigation is increasing more slowly than in the past two or three decades and in future, the rate of irrigated land going out of production (due to salinity, water logging, etc.) may well exceed the rate of new land brought under irrigation. We expect the decrease in area under cultivation contributes towards a decrease in the growth rate of production.
IndiaPopulation (thousands)Constant-fertility variant
2010-2100
Year Population
Percapita2010 1224614 118906400 97.09704452015 1318007 128245700 97.30274572020 1414971 137942100 97.4875812025 1512649 147709900 97.64981832030 1610207 157465700 97.79220932035 1709142 167359200 97.9200092040 1810775 177522500 98.03675222045 1914619 187906900 98.14323372050 2019849 198429900 98.2399674
Wheat Production (tonnes)
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 205596.4
96.6
96.8
97
97.2
97.4
97.6
97.8
98
98.2
98.4
Estimated Percapita
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 205596.4
96.6
96.8
97
97.2
97.4
97.6
97.8
98
98.2
98.4
Estimated Percapita
