Technology and inequality

Technology and inequality

Principal, Delta Wisdom Chair, London Futurists londonfuturists.com deltawisdom.com

Recent history & future scenarios

Radical opportunity & radical risk

David Wood @dw2

@dw2

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Accelerating technology

Enhancing humans

Extra intelligence

Extra health Extra longevity

Extra experience

Disturbing humanity

Worse terrorism

Worse surveillance

Worse climate

Robot employment

Extra opportunities Existential risks

Benefits individuals

Threatens society

Positive

feedback

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Enhancing humans

Extra intelligence


Extra experience

Disturbing humanity

Worse terrorism

Worse surveillance

Worse climate

Robot employment



Threatens society

If we allow individuals to enhance themselves

through smart R&D and free enterprise – without government interference –

the world’s social problems will be solved as a by-product

Alongside smart R&D and the power of free enterprise, we also need

wise regulation and smart governance

1

2

And perhaps new social systems

Governments needn’t be corrupt

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http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/360347

The most important problem we are facing

now, today… is

Robert Shiller, Nobel prize winner for Economics,

14 October 2013

rising inequality



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http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/theres-been-class-warfare-for-the-last-20-years-and-my-class-has-won/2011/03/03/gIQApaFbAL_blog.html

There’s been class warfare going on for the last 20 years, and my class has won. We’re the ones that have gotten our tax rates reduced dramatically

Warren Buffett, Investor, “Sage of Omaha”,

2011

Top 400 taxpayers Average income Tax rate

1992 $40M 29%

2010 $227M 21%































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http://www.theprogressivesinfluence.com/2014/02/the-nations-uber-wealthy-are-revolting.html













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http://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cassidy/pikettys-inequality-story-in-six-charts

http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/capital21c/en/pdf/F0.I.1.pdf

http://eml.berkeley.edu/~saez/saez-UStopincomes-

2012.pdf

Thomas Piketty

















http://eml.berkeley.edu/~saez/saez-UStopincomes-2012.pdf







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http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21631129-it-001-who-are-really-getting-ahead-america-forget-1

“The really, really rich get much, much richer”

“The 16,000 families making up the richest 0.01%, with an average net worth of $371M, now control 11.2% of total wealth—back to the 1916 share, which is the highest on record”



























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Positive

feedback

cycle

The three inequality questions

1. Is inequality really a problem? – Or is it just a perceived problem?

2. Is powerful new technology likely to make the problem worse? – For example, via adverse positive feedback cycles? – What kind of scenarios are credible for the future?

3. What can be done to avoid escalating inequality? – Roles of politics, philosophy, and (yes) technology?

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The problems with inequality

1. Is inequality really a problem? – Or is it just a perceived problem?

A. A more unequal society is worse for everyone B. Equality of opportunity is declining too

– “The disappearing middle class”

C. A more unequal society is more explosive – And technology risks making it even more explosive

Positive

feedback

cycle

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http://www.equalitytrust.org.uk/resources/our-publications/spirit-level-slides

http://www.theguardian.com/books/2010/aug/14/the-spirit-level-equality-thinktanks





















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http://www.thersa.org/events/video/archive/rsa-debates-the-spirit-level

“Kate Pickett, Richard Wilkinson,

Peter Saunders, and Chrisopher Snowdon debate the influential book The Spirit Level and ask whether the

benefits of egalitarianism can be statistically proven”











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http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/12/04/the-best-speech-obama-has-given-on-the-economy/

…I believe this is the defining challenge of our time

4 December 2013

A dangerous and growing inequality… has jeopardized middle-class America’s basic bargain:

– that if you work hard, you have a chance to get ahead

While we don’t promise equal outcomes, we have strived to deliver equal opportunity – the idea that success doesn’t depend on being born into wealth or privilege, it depends on effort and merit.



















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http://www.technologyreview.com/featuredstory/531726/technology-and-inequality/







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http://owsposters.tumblr.com/post/11688983653/middle-class-family-an-endangered-species














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4 December 2013

The problem is that alongside increased inequality, we’ve seen diminished levels of upward mobility in

recent years. A child born in the top 20% has about a 2-in-3 chance

of staying at or near the top. A child born into the bottom 20% has a less than 1-in-

20 shot at making it to the top. He’s 10 times likelier to stay where he is.



















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Page 28 The problem isn’t that we have inequality. Some inequality is intrinsic to any high-functioning capitalist economy. The problem is that inequality is at historically high levels and getting worse every day… Unless our policies change dramatically, the middle class will disappear, and we will be back to late 18th-century France. Before the revolution. And so I have a message for my fellow filthy rich, for all of us who live in our gated bubble worlds: Wake up, people. It won’t last. If we don’t do something to fix the glaring inequities in this economy, the pitchforks are going to come for us. No society can sustain this kind of rising inequality. In fact, there is no example in human history where wealth accumulated like this and the pitchforks didn’t eventually come out. You show me a highly unequal society, and I will show you a police state. Or an uprising.

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/06/the-pitchforks-are-coming-for-us-plutocrats-108014.html

Nick Hanauer

















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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2541541/Google-hiring-security-guards-protect-work-buses-San-Francisco-following-protests-tech-workers-driving-city-rents.html



































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Locking in advantage: 5 factors 1. Capital growth exceeds economic growth (r > g: Piketty)

– More money -> investment -> even more money

2. Education – More money -> better education -> better career -> more money

3. “Winner takes all” – Better skills -> disproportionately higher reward

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Purchased by Facebook in April 2012

With 13 employees And 100 million registered users

For approx $1 billion in cash and stock

Launched in October 2010 Sociable

Usable

Winner takes a larger reward Compare Kodak

1997 valuation $30B 86,000 employees

2,000x productivity?!

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Purchased by Facebook in April 2012

With 13 employees And 100 million registered users

For approx $1 billion in cash and stock

Launched in October 2010

Winner takes a larger reward Compare Kodak

1997 valuation $30B 86,000 employees

2,000x productivity?!

Created seven billionaires!

Each with a net worth ten times greater than George

Eastman!

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Purchased by Facebook in Feb 2014

With 55 employees And 420 million active users

For approx $19 billion in cash & stock

Launched in March 2009 Sociable

Usable

Winner takes a larger reward

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“Winner takes all”: The Second Machine Age Gold medal >> Silver medal 1. The digitization of more and more

information, goods, and services 2. The vast improvements in

telecommunications and transport – The best products can be used in every

market

3. The increased importance of networks and standards – New capabilities and new ideas can be

combined and recombined more quickly

http://www.secondmachineage.com/

Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, MIT



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Steve Jurvetson Managing Director, Draper Fisher Jurvetson

Venture Capitalist investor in Hotmail

“It just seems so obvious to me [that] technology is accelerating the rich-poor gap…”

“The elephant in the room, stomping around, banging off the walls”







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Locking in advantage: 5 factors 1. Capital growth exceeds economic growth (r > g: Piketty)

– More money -> investment -> even more money

2. Education – More money -> better education -> better career -> more money

3. “Winner takes all” – Better skills -> disproportionately higher reward

4. Technology to enhance your health (body power) – Fitter -> work more effectively -> better rewards

5. Technology to enhance your intelligence (brain power) – Smarter -> work more effectively -> better rewards

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Reduces prices

Increases inequality

Positive

feedback

Creates practical abundance

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http://www.businessinsider.com.au/mary-meekers-2014-internet-presentation-2014-5















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http://www.computerworld.com/slideshow/detail/143723#slide2

128MB 128GB



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Source: “Exponential

Organizations”

exponentialorgs.com

http://www.slideshare.net/vangeest/exponential-

organizations-h

http://www.exponentialorgs.com/

http://www.slideshare.net/vangeest/exponential-organizations-h







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Organizations”

exponentialorgs.com


organizations-h









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Organizations”

exponentialorgs.com


organizations-h









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Examples of rate of change

Source: “Exponential Organizations”

Technology Average cost for equivalent functionality Scale

3D printing $40,000 (2007) to $100 (2014) 400x in 7 years

Industrial robots $500,000 (2008) to $22,000 (2013) 23x in 5 years

Drones $100,000 (2007) to $700 (2013) 142x in 6 years

Solar energy $30 per kWh (1984) to $0.16 per kWh (2014) 200x in 20 years

3D LIDAR Sensors $20,000 (2009) to $79 (2014) 250x in 5 years

DNA genome seq $10,000,000 (2007) to $1,000 (2014) 10,000x in 7 years

BCI neuro devices $4,000 (2006) to $90 (2011) 44x in 5 years

Full body med scan $10,000 (2000) to $500 (2014) 20x in 14 years








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Reduces prices

Increases inequality

Positive

feedback

Creates practical abundance

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Four future scenarios 1. Inequality accepted – through “practical abundance” despite inequality

– Majority of people will become comparatively poorer, but goods will reduce in expense – People remain relatively happy and acquiescent – Even though the 1% have more abundance than everyone else – People may spend lots of time in virtual worlds and soap operas

2. Inequality exploded: Pitchforks, revolution, and worse – Some important goods will only be affordable by the super-rich – Specialised healthcare? Rejuvenation technology? – “Practical abundance” is not enough – Growing societal tensions -> risk of explosions, pitchforks, horrific terrorism, WMD

3. Inequality controlled: Transhumanism for the 1% – New tech will make some humans super-intelligent (brain-enhanced) & super-powerful – Much bigger & faster differentiation than existing educational benefits – That new ruling class will be able to suppress all dissent: super-effective police state

4. Inequality vanquished: Transhumanism for all – Determined social pressure to ensure access to new technologies by everyone – Don’t leave social evolution up to the forces of “free market liberalism” – Improve on social organisation, just like we believe we can improve on bio-evolution

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Enhancing humans

Extra intelligence


Extra experience

Disturbing humanity

Worse terrorism

Worse surveillance

Worse climate

Robot employment



Threatens society

If we allow individuals to enhance themselves

through smart R&D and free enterprise – without government interference –

the world’s social problems will be solved as a by-product

Alongside smart R&D and the power of free enterprise, we also need

wise regulation and smart governance

1

2

And perhaps new social systems

Governments needn’t be corrupt

@dw2

Page 51 Appendix: What can be done to avoid escalating inequality?

• Deepen our awareness of impacts of social factors on alienation and initiative – Sharpen our understanding of which kinds of inequality matter the most (and most need fixing) – Local experimentation (at city, region, or country levels) will make us collectively wiser – Expect a big role for a Basic Income Guarantee, especially as Technological Unemployment grows

• Encourage growth, where appropriate, of “collaborative commons” voluntary sector • Elevate the power of “conscious capitalism” over “crony capitalism” & “vested interests”

– Encourage visions other than just pursuit of greater profit (“man cannot live by bread alone”) – Enable societies to adopt “massive transformational purpose” (MTP – term used by Singularity Univ) – A good MTP could be something like “transhumanism for all”

• Re-invigorate democratic systems – Democracy 2.0 – building on success of e.g. MOOCs – Better use of technology to involve more people at right times in relevant decision-making processes – The blockchain tech (which underlies Bitcoin) can enable DAOs (Distributed Autonomous Orgs)

• Develop smart drugs and other systems that make us all (with our permission) not just smarter and stronger but also kinder and more empathetic – With that new spirit, more people in the “1%” will be moved to champion inclusivity – This is “inner transhumanism” as opposed to just “outer transhumanism”

http://dw2blog.com/2011/04/17/towards-inner-humanity/







Principal, Delta Wisdom Chair, London Futurists

David Wood @dw2

londonfuturists.com deltawisdom.com

Technology and inequality

Recent history & future scenarios

Radical opportunity & radical risk