Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
The AI spring- Innovations for the next decade
May 2015
1
Pari Natarajan, Hardik TiwariRishabh Saraswat, Amrit Murali
Introduction of Turing test
AI has evolved rapidly in the last few years
1950
Computational Power
Data Platforms
Better Algorithms
First AI programto play Tic Tac Toe
1960
RDBMS
LOGIC THEOREMS-Single layer learning, Perceptron, Adaline
IBM Deep blue defeats Gary Kasparov
1997
OLAP
NEURAL NETWORKS- Multilayer Back propagation
512Core GPU
2880Core GPU
12000Core GPU
Cost of Computing$200
Per million transistors$50
Per million transistors$0.05
Per million transistors
2011 2015
Watson became Jeopardy Champion
BIGDATA PLATFORMS-HDFS
DEEP LEARNING -Convoluted Neural Network
2
DeepMind’s self-taught AI can beat human players at 29 of 49 Atari games
• 10360 possible moves• Monte Carlo tree search & Q Learning• Statistical, learned and general purpose• Learned from 30 million moves
• 1023 Trillion Possible Outcome• Brute Force Algorithm• Symbolic, hand crafted and domain specific• 700,000 Grandmaster chess games
Deep Blue AlphaGo
And is able to beat human champions in complex board games..
“That’s a strange move. I thought it was a mistake.”
– Lee Sedol
It may be a hundred years before a computer beats humans at Go —
maybe even longer!!
-AI Experts in 1997, NY times3
“You get in the car, press the button, and
it will drive you all the way from
Mountain View to San Francisco”
- George Hotz
2015 Built Autonomous Car in a month in his garage
<$1000 Off-the-shelf ADAS Kit in Beta
$3.1 Million Funding received
3Total Team Size
7.25 Hours worth of driving data open sourced
AI has moved on from games to the real world
4Source: Comma.ai
MANUFACTURINGFINANCIING
OWNERSHIP
EXPERIENCEDESIGN &
DEVELOPMENT
AI-Designed Car
Developing the first AI designed car
Partnered with the robotics and intelligent systems group to drive innovations in cognitive systems in factories
Intelligent Systems
PRODUCT
FEATURES
Set up a $25 million research centre in collaboration with MIT for autonomous vehicle technologies
Autonomous Vehicles
AI Based Designs Simulated Testing
Baidu invested in ZestFinance, a startupthat uses machine learning to develop a credit scoring platform.
Credit Scoring
ADAS Connected Car Speech Recognition
Intelligent Production Line
Integrated Systems
Ride Sharing On-Demand Transport
Credit Scoring Fraud Detection Predictive Modelling
Tesla’s Autopilot can, in real time, learn the daily routes taken by it’s users.
Ride-Sharing
$721 MnTotal Funding
2011Average Founding year
192Disruptors
Adds value across the industry value chain
Automotive
5Source: GEIP
And is disrupting all industry verticals
1- Analysed basis data maturity, software penetration, regulatory restrictions across the value chain representing disruption potential over next 5 years2 – Analysed basis current investments ( talent + acquisition) for all players
NLP platform Alexa
BFSI
Healthcare
Po
ten
tial
to
Dis
rup
tio
n1
AI Maturity 2
Retail
Predictive diabetes management
AI based Robo advisory service.
Enterprise Software
Semicon
Consumer Electronics Microsoft Cortana and Intelligent Cloud
Machine Learning Enabled Hardware
NASA software to enable damaged aircrafts, find a safe landing spot.
Recommendation based on photographs
Autonomous driving
Auto
Aerospace
Consumer Software
Machine Learning enabled Advertising.
6Source: GEIP
Artificial Intelligence is a sum of many algorithms..
Constraint Satisfaction
Probabilistic reasoning
Logical Reasoning
Machine Learning
Search & optimization
Control theory
Facial Recognition Autonomous VehiclesDrones & Robotics Personalized Marketing
Financial Trading
Artificial Intelligence Building computer programs that make data driven decisions without being explicitly programmed and also automatically improve over time
What is
NLP
Computer Vision7
Deep Learning is a branch of Neural Networks, where there are ‘n’ intermediate processing layers between the input and output.
WHY DEEP LEARNING Automated Feature Extraction – Can recognize patterns by itself
Less training data required
Reuse the same algorithm or different applications
Deep Learning Algorithms
Deep BoltzmannMachine
Deep Belief Network
Convoluted Neural Networks
Stacked Auto Encoders
Input
Input
Input
Output
Convoluted Neural Nets
‘ n’ Intermediate Layers
Output
Output
Input
Input
NLP
Natural Language DB Queries Spam Detection
Early Detection of curable diseases
Personalized Ad RecommendationsAutomated Conversation Coach
DAVE2 – Autonomous Vehicle
Vision
Pattern Recognition
Speech Recognition
Speech to Text Conversion
SIRI
Deep Search 2 for voice search
Deep learning is the most dominant of all
8
AI innovations are dominated by Tech Mafias and Start-ups
Hardware
APPLICATIONS
PLATFORMS
INFRASTRUCTURE
MACHINE INTELLIGENCE NLP COMPUTER VISION
DEEP LEARNING
ADAS
GESTURE CONTROL
Enterprise Software Assistants
Productivity
FinTech
AdTech
Data Platforms
HealthTech
Auto
Dominated by the startups who build verticalized applications for various use cases.
Applications – The Startup Zone
Focused their efforts on building platforms that can then be leveraged by the ecosystem.
Platforms – Tech Mafia Playground
The AI focused companies can be found providing the infrastructure that enables the rest of the landscape.
Infrastructure – G500 Domination
Intensity
Start-ups G500Tech Mafia9Source: GEIP
Quarterly funding trend (2013-16 YTD)
Q1, 2012 Q1, 2013 Q1, 2014 Q1, 2015 Q1, 2016
$94 $137
$253
$121
$302
$552
$926 $901
$602
$1,049
Raises $100M for Deep learning based ultrasound
Google acquires Deepmind for$500M
Raises $65M for ML based threat detection
Q1, 2011
Focussing on reverse engineering the neocortex raised series A
Ten fold increase in start-up funding in the last five years
200
USD 0.4B
AP
PLI
CA
TIO
NS
600
USD 2.5 B
PLA
TFO
RM
SEN
AB
LER
S
1400
USD 11 B USD
1 BUSD 0.9 B
USD 0.7 B
HealthcareFintech
Auto
USD 2.3 B
USD 0.7 B
USD 0.5 B
USD 0.3 B
USD 0.1 B
Machine
Learning NLP Computer
Vision
Data PlatformsHardware
USD 6 B
Enterprise
Software
#Startups Funding 10Source: GEIP
2277Start-ups $14.28 Billion
Global AI start-up distribution
USA
ChinaGermany
Spain
UK
Israel
85
40
55188
1170
55
169
India
86
CanadaNetherlands
25
26
Australia
Brazil
18
France
43
25 Singapore
Hong Kong12
Total FundingNumber of Start-ups
And is dominated by the US
Global AI start-up distribution
$11.5 B
$0.6B
$0.3 B$0.5 B
$0.6 B
$0.1 B$0.1 B
$0.1 B
APPLICATIONS-FINTECH, HEALTHCARE
APPLICATIONS –HRTECH, HEALTHCAREAPPLICATIONS – AUTO, FINTECH, RETAIL
PLATFORMS- DEEPLEARNING, VISION
ENABLERS –BIGDATA PLATFORMS
Computer Vision
AI based consumer robotics start-up
Massively scaled deep learning
Threat detection
ML based recruitment
ML for retail
Personalised healthcare
NLP API
PLATFORMS- DEEPLEARNING, NLP
11Source: GEIP
European start-up ecosystem is evolving and leveraged by US companies
441
Start-ups
$ 1 BInvestment
APPLICATIONS
PLATFORMS
INFRASTRUCTURE
HARDWARE SOFTWARE
DEEP LEARNING- $
170M
NLP - $33M
SMART ROBOTS -$20M
AUTO - $64M FINTECH - $97M
HEALTHCARE -$115M
ADTECH - $26M
SECURITY -$100MPRODUCTIVITY -
$130M
COMPUTER VISION - $50M
USGlobalEU
60%30%10%30
Acquisitions
$1.2 BInvestment
Start-ups
Deep Learning
NLP
Robotics
Computer Vision
Productivity
12Source: GEIP
Healthcare
Home Automation
CloudPersonal Assistants
Tech Mafias are building an AI-first future
Automotive Wearables
AI Talent Acquisition Patents -30K $10 B 300+
Wearables for Health monitoring
Project
Titan
Siri controlled home kit
AppleSmartwatch
iPhone iOS 10 image recognition
Spotlight for images & text
Siri
Aerospace
Google Home
Verily –algorithms for Diagnosis Deepmind for
HealthcareGoogle X
nanoparticle research
Google X –Self
Driving
Android Wear Smartwatch
Google Loon
AI Robot-GoogleX
Google Prediction API
AlloGoogle Now
Tensorflow
Project Jacquard
Deepmind Google for Work
AI Platforms
Cortana for Healthcare
Microsoft –Volvo Self driving
Kinect
CortanaSwiftKey
Microsoft Graph –Sales lead scoring
Hololens
Azure MLDSSTNE
Oculus
UAV Aquila
Facial recognition
Facebook M
Facebook Deeptext
FAIR
Wit.ai
AlexaDrone
Delivery
Recommender systems
AWS MLCNTK
13Source: GEIP
And are acquiring younger start-ups to accelerate innovation pace
Amazon Apple Facebook MicrosoftGoogle
Average Acquisition Year
Acq
uir
ee
Mat
uri
ty
Dot Com Era Smartphone Era Cognitive Era
2004 2010 2016
1
2
3
4
5Bulk of the acquisitions by Microsoft and
Google to boost their Search Tech.
MS and Apple begin work on Gesture Control devices.
The Tech Mafia investing heavily in AI enablement platforms
Google begin work on Maps
NLP VisionML NLP Vision ML NLP Vision Robotics
14
Indicates Average
Leveraging global talent pool
9300
19600
Seattle Area
Bay Area
2100
3200
Boston
New York
9502700
Bangalore
1600
• Traditional Hubs for Engineering
for the Tech Mafia - Machine
learning to NLP & Computer
vision.
• Driverless Cars, Drones, Data
Science, Cyber Security are the hot
areas
West Coast of USA East Coast of USA Western Europe & IsraelIndian Hi-Tech
Cities
460
Singapore
660BeijingIsrael
Hyderabad
• Top universities like CMU &
MIT have hot focus on Artificial
Intelligence research;
• EU’s Human Brain Project
for spending close to 1 billion
euros on AI over the next
decade.
• OEM’s like Renault,
Volkswagen partnering with
Autonomous start-ups like
Mobileye
• IBM set up its Watson
unit in India in 2012 to
work for Healthcare and
BFSI clients in US.
• Baidu is investing in deep
speech for voice-based
searches that leverage
speech recognition;
910
Spain
4100
UK
2000
France
3300
Germany
Hong Kong & Singapore
X ER&D Workforce in AI
950
Netherlands
TECH MAFIA HOTSPOT UNIVERSITY RESEARCH AUTO OEMs AI FOCUS OVERSEAS FOCUS CHINESE INTERNET AI DRIVERS
45%
55%
Tech Mafias
Rest
Tech Mafias own 45% of global AI talent
15Source: GEIP
XUser Base on
GITHUB
And opening their innovation to others to build on
Computer Vision
KINDRED Robotics
Project Malmo
Tensorflow
DSSTNE
35K
for Torch Swift-AI
CNTK
DSSTNE is designed to support problems with sparse data. 3KAI research built on top of the
game Minecraft.2K
Significantly faster than the default Torch and allow users to train larger neural nets
A unified deep-learning toolkit that describes neural networks as a series of computational steps
6K
Swift AI is a high-performance AI and machine learning library
Open sourcing their APIs allows the Tech Mafia to democratize innovation.
1K 1K
Computer Vision for refrigerators
Most popular Open Source AI Library. User base has grown tenfold since it’s release in Nov. 2015.
Makoto Koike uses TensorFlow to sort Cucumbers
Cornel University project on Cyber-Security
Projects based on Platforms
16
“Success in creating AI would be the biggest event in human history. It might also be the last, unless we learn how to avoid the risks.”
- Stephen Hawking
Public failures not withstanding..
Trending fake news articles 7 reported accidents (1 fatal) since April 2016
Facebook Tesla
Deepmind failed at describing dumbbells Microsoft’s Tay became a racist bot
Microsoft
17
Top R&D spenders are lagging behind..
Plan to release Xeon Phi processor line for AI applications-~$400M investments
Leveraging ML for network threat products – Cognitive Threat Analytics
Invested $5B in building an AI powered Gigafactory.
$1B investment to establish the Toyota Research Institute for AI
$500M investment in a 200 member AI R&D lab in SilliconValley
1 : Investment in AI in terms of talent & acquisition or Funding raised ( for startup)2 : Focus on emerging technologies vs Older algorithms, Focus on Ecosystem creation and Platform adoption/maturity
MicrosoftAmazon
Apple
IBM
Bosch
Volkswagen
Intel
Oracle
Cisco
Foxconn
SAP
Airbus
MobileyeSentient
Zoox
Datarobot
X.ai
AI Focus1
Futu
re R
ead
ine
ss2
Startups G500Tech Mafia
G500
Start-ups
Tech Mafia
Size of the bubble indicates R&D spend
Source: GEIP 18
But can accelerate through four simple steps
Identify Business Case1Build a Data Ecosystem2Collaborate with the Ecosystem
Leverage newer talent hotspots43
Algorithm & Platforms
Data Talent
Use Cases
AI Puzzle
19
Identify and prioritize AI’s role
DATA
COMPLEXITY
APPLICATION COMPLEXITY
Wide range of interconnected activities
Well-defined rules, procedures and criteria
Complete Autonomy
Augment Humans
Reliant on individual expertise and experience
Original, innovative work
Surgical RobotsChatbots
Echo, the home control device
Automated meetings scheduler
Image Search
Auto- Recommendations
Automated Factories
Robo- Advisory
Enterprise security through AI
Autonomous Car
Dee
p L
earn
ing
Ru
le B
ased
En
gin
e
AI bot designed car
AI based website design platform
20
Build a Data ecosystem and own it
ConceptualizationDesign &
DevelopmentProduct Usage Serviceability Manufacturing
ERP
Geo-locationdata
Socialdata
Compete Data
Usagedata
Bug Reports
ProductData
Customer Data
Open Data
Web Data
Partner Data Market Data
Design Data
Libraries
Enterprise Data
Customer Map
Usagedata
Govt. Data Content
Logs
SCADA
Sensor
Market Data
Machine Data
Energy Pricing MRO data
PLM ProductCloud
Supplier APIs
Data as a Product External Data APIs Internal Data APIs
21
Toyota leverages multiple facets of the innovation fabric to drive innovations in aligned technology areas
Headquarters in Japan is supplemented by 5 engineering hubs
India, China, Thailand ,Mexico & Brazil
Palo Alto research labs for AI & Robotics research
Acqui-Hired IT born robotics start-up
The SAIL-Toyota Centre for AI Research
Partnered to develop autonomous car technology.
New Age Innovation Fabric
Porous innovation permeating beyond the walls of the organization
Balance internal and external innovation
22
Venture Fund
Accelerators
Evangelize
Ecosystem
Collaboration
• Extensive hands on support & infrastructural support
• Connecting with clients and investors
• Limited platform & soft infrastructure support • Connect the startup teams with VCs & partners
• Partnership with accelerators/Universities• Mentorship support & events participation
Capital Investment Non-Capital Investment Examples
• Product GTM support• Senior level team hiring /restructuring
Partner with start-ups
3rd Party
Accelerators• Partner with other accelerators,
innovation workshops with stakeholders
Arena 120
Microsoft Start-up accelerator
23Source: GEIP
Build the right platform partnerships
GPU Hardware Platforms
Big Sur Tensor Processing Unit
Github – Public Datasets
Infrastructure Platforms
Data Sets
Applications
ORCHESTRATION OF SPECIALISTS
Leverages Watson’s open API to build MyCareLink Smart App
that predicts low blood sugar
Apache 2.0 open source libraries
EHR, Clinical data through pharmacies and universities
H20.ai python based ML libraries
AWS ML optimized infrastructure
Fraud Detection Diabetes Detection Cart checkouts Drones
AI Platforms
Driver Safety
24
EXAMPLES
Leverage global talent
USA
Canada
65 110
10
UK
35
China70
85
Available AI & related Talent in Country (‘000)
2015 2025
20Israel
India
A global satellite and is a part of the global CoE for ML reporting to Berlin
Global engineering hub and has small team working on ML
Global engineering satellite and drives activities in Computer vision space
Global CoE for IoT and Advanced ML space.
18
615 155
Beijing a global engineering satellite and works on NLP and Computer vision tech
Partnered with Didi for crowdsourcing challenge for optimising route algorithm
25Source: GEIP
Some of the European peers have a head start.
Enterprise Software
Have opened up multiple research labs all over theworld, focused on collaborating with start-ups andscientific institutions with 420M investment.
Intelligent Machines
BMW is teaming up with Mobileye and Intel towork on its first fully autonomous self-drivingcar, which it plans to ship by 2021
Self-Driving Car
Smart Car
Audi confirmed that it's self-driving car will usethe new Nvidia superchip future automotive self-piloting capabilities.
Cognitive Computing , industry specificapplications
Collaborating and integrating IBM’s cognitivecomputing technology with the HANA Cloud.
Self-driving car
Robotics, Cyber-Secuirty and IoT Self-driving car
26
27
