Thefutureofdigitalcommunica2ons

StCatharine’sCollege,Cambridge1February2017

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TheITRCisaconsor?umofsevenUKuniversi?es:•  UniversityofOxford•  UniversityofCambridge•  CardiffUniversity•  UniversityofLeeds•  NewcastleUniversity•  UniversityofSouthampton•  UniversityofSussexITRCwasfundedfrom2011-2015witha£4.7millionProgrammeGrantfromEPSRCMISTRAListhenew£5.3millionProgrammeGrantfromEPSRCwhichwillfundtheITRCfrom2016-2020

UKInfrastructureTransi?onsResearchConsor?um(ITRC)

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Aimandambi?onofITRC

Aim:Todevelopanddemonstrateanewgenera?onofsimula?onmodelsandtoolstoinformtheanalysis,planninganddesignofna?onalinfrastructureAmbi%on:Enablingarevolu?oninthestrategicanalysisofna?onalinfrastructureprovisionintheUK…whilstatthesame?mebecominganinterna?onallandmarkprogrammerecognisedfornovelty,researchexcellenceandimpact.

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AchievementsofITRC

1.  System-of-systemsanalysistoinformlongtermplanning,investmentanddesignforna?onalinfrastructure

2.  Na?onalinfrastructurevulnerability,riskandresilienceanalysis

3.  Na?onalinfrastructuredatabaseandvisualisa?ontools

4.  Economicsandgovernanceofna?onalinfrastructure

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TheFutureofNa?onalInfrastructurePartIAsystem-of-systemsapproach1Introducingna?onalinfrastructureassessment2Aframeworkforanalysingthelong-termperformanceofinterdependentinfrastructuresystemsPartIIAnalysingna2onalinfrastructure3Futuredemandforinfrastructureservices4Energysystemsassessment5Transportsystems6Watersupplysystemsassessment7Wastewatersystemsassessment8Solidwastesystemsassessment9Digitalcommunica?onsandinforma?onsystemsPartIIIIntegra2veperspec2vesforthefuture10Assessingtheperformanceofna?onalinfrastructure11Quan?fyinginterdependencies:theenergy–transportandwater–energynexus12Analysingtherisksoffailureofinterdependentinfrastructurenetworks13Database,simula?onmodellingandvisualisa?onforna?onalinfrastructureassessment14Governanceofinterdependentinfrastructurenetworks15Thefutureofna?onalinfrastructure

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TheNa?onalInfrastructureSystemsModelfamily

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NISMOD-LPSystem-of-systemsmodelforlongtermplanning

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TheCambridgeCommunica?onsAssessmentModel

8

Scenarios

CoverageandCapacityData

NetworkModels

VisualisedSpa2alRollout

CapexandOpexInforma2on

NetworkPerformanceMetrics

Strategies

InfrastructureViability

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•  Commoneconomic,demographic,climatescenarios•  Interdependentsystem-of-systemsmodels•  Efficientmodelsthatcanbeusedforscenarioand

uncertaintyanalysis•  Designedtotestandcomparemul?plealterna?vena?onal

infrastructurestrategies•  Databasewithfulltraceabilityofresultsandvisualisa?onNISMOD-LPhasbeenusedtoanalyse:•  theNa?onalInfrastructurePlanforInfrastructureUK•  theintegra?onofsolarenergyforNa?onalGrid•  theNa?onalNeedsAssessment,ledbySirJohnArmid•  Roll-outoffmobilecoveragefortheNIC’s5Ganalysis

NISMOD-LPSystem-of-systemsmodelforlongtermplanning

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NISMOD-RV:Na?onalmodelofinfrastructureriskandvulnerability

Cri?calinfrastructure‘hotspots’analysis

Hierarchicalelectricitynetworkwithinfrastructureinterdependence

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NISMOD-RV:Na?onalmodelofinfrastructureriskandvulnerability

NISMOD-RVhasbeenused:•  Duringthe2013/14floodstoanalysethepoten?alrisksof

cascadinginfrastructurefailure•  ForInfrastructureUKtoanalysena?onalinfrastructure

‘hotspots’•  FortheDepartmentforTransporttoanalysetheresilience

ofthetransportnetwork•  ForLockheedMar?ntoanalysetherisksofcyberadachon

electricitysubsta?ons•  FortheCommideeonClimateChangeinthe2017Climate

ChangeRiskAssessment.•  ForHS2toanalyserisksofinterdependencies

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NISMOD-DB:Na?onalinfrastructuredatabase

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DatabaseDrivenVisualisa?onTools

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Na?onalinfrastructurenetworkdashboard

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MISTRALMul?-scaleInfrastructureSystemsAnaly?cs

TheaimoftheMISTRALprogrammeistodevelopanddemonstrateahighlyintegratedanaly%cscapabilitytoinformstrategicinfrastructuredecisionmakingacrossscales,fromlocaltoglobal.MISTRALwilltherebyradicallyextendtheITRC’spioneeringinfrastructuresystemsanalysiscapability:•  Downscale:fromITRC’spioneeringrepresenta?onofna?onal

networkstotheUK’s25.7millionhouseholdsand5.2millionbusinesses,represen?ngtheinfrastructureservicestheydemandandthemul?-scalenetworksthroughwhichtheseservicesaredelivered.

•  Upscale:fromthena?onalperspec?vetoincorporateglobalinterconnec?onsviatelecommunica?ons,transportandenergynetworks.

•  Across-scale:tootherna?onalsekngsoutsidetheUK,whereinfrastructureneedsaregreatestandwheresystemsanalysisrepresentsabusinessopportunityforUKengineeringfirms.

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Challenge1:Thelocalcomplexityofna?onalinfrastructure

•  Householdscaledemographicsimula?on•  Buildingcharacterisa?on•  Street-scalenetworkrepresenta?on•  Distributedrenewablesandstorage•  Heatandhydrogennetworks•  Explicitrepresenta?onofthetransport

network•  Localfloodanddrainagesimula?on•  Solidwastetransportandprocessing•  Mappingofdigitalservicesandneeds•  Spa?alalloca?onofinfrastructureHighresolu?onatana%onalscaleInforminglocalinnova?onanddevolvedgovernanceofinfrastructure

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Challenge2:Na?onalinfrastructureinaninter-connectedworld

Globalinterconnec?onofUKinfrastructure:•  Energy•  Transport•  Digitalcommunica?ons•  SolidwasteGlobalnetworkanalysis

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Na?onalInfrastructureDatabase,Modelling,Simula?onandVisualisa?onFacili?es

•  NIDMSVFwillbebasedattheRutherfordAppletonLaboratory,Oxfordshire,managedbySTFCScien?ficCompu?ngDepartment.

•  The£8milliongrantforNIDMSVFiscurrentlyundergoingvalueformoneyapprovalsbyEPSRC

•  TheNa2onalInfrastructureDatabase(NID)willprovideana?onalsecurefacilityforassembling,hos?ngandcrea?ngdatasetsoninfrastructureassetsandnetworks,andthehumanandnaturalenvironmentsinwhichtheyarelocated.ItwillbecomeahubforinfrastructureresearchersintheUKandforbusinessandgovernmentorganisa?on.

•  Thena2onalinfrastructureModelling,Simula2onandVisualisa2onFacili2es(MSVF)willprovideane-scienceenvironmentwhichwillrepresentastep-changeinUKcapabilityby–  linkingseamlesslywiththena?onalinfrastructuredatabase–  convenientlyaccessinghighperformancecompu?ngfacili?es–  couplingofsimula?onmodulestoenablesystem-of-systems

simula?on–  linkingwithvisualisa?onfacili?estoenablescru?nyand

communica?onofcomplexandhighdimensionalsimula?onresults.

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IntendedimpactoftheMISTRALprogramme

1.  tohaveMISTRAL’sna?onalinfrastructuresystemanaly?csinuseandinformingdecisionsbygovernments,u?li?esandregulatorsatarangeofscalesintheUK

2.  forMISTRAL’sna?onalinfrastructuredatabasetobecomeasharedna2onalresourceandafocalpointforresearchandindustrialcollabora?on

3.  forMISTRAL’ssystemsanaly?cstobeusedininfrastructureplanning,investmentanddesignaroundtheworld

4.  tobeengagingawiderangeofstakeholders,includingthegeneralpublic,inunderstandinginfrastructureperformanceandchoices.

Thefutureofdigitalcommunica2ons

StCatharine’sCollege,Cambridge1February2017