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Presentation made in the Generation Challenge Program (GCP) General Research Meeting held in Hyderabad, India in September 2011.
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1 • 3/21/11
The Importance of Agricultural Data and Informatics for
Climate Change Adaptation
Andy Jarvis, Julian Ramirez, Glenn Hyman, Jacob van
EttenCCAFS
2 • 3/21/11
The Challenge
3 • 3/21/11
The concentration of GHGs is rising
Long-term implications
for the climate and for crop suitability
4 • 3/21/11
Historical impacts on food security
% Yield impact for wheat
Observed changes in growing season temperature for crop growing regions,1980-2008.
Lobell et al (2011)
5 • 3/21/11
Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050
Crop suitability is changing
6 • 3/21/11
0 0.25 0.50 0.75 1
Exacerbating the yield gap
From Licker et al, 2010
Climate change will likely pose additional difficulties for resource-poor farmers (e.g., in Africa), thereby increasing the yield gap
7 • 3/21/11
In order to meet global
demands, we will need
60-70% more food
by 2050.
Food security is at risk
8 • 3/21/11
“Unchecked climate change will result in a
20% increase in malnourished children by 2050,” relative to the full
mitigation scenario.
-Gerald Nelson, IFPRI/CCAFS
9 • 3/21/11
Progressive Adaptation
THE VISION
To adapt farming systems, we need to:
• Close the production gap by effectively using technologies, practices and policies
• Increase the bar: develop new ways to increase food production potential
• Enable policies and institutions, from the farm to national level
10 • 3/21/11
A heavy reliance on models
• For a 2030 world, difficult to do work without the aid of models
• Starts with the Global Climate Models…
• Through to agricultural impacts models
11 • 3/21/11
And models need data…• On climate• Weather• Crop distribution• Crop productivity• Varietal adaptations• Genetic traits• Social parameters• …and the list goes on….
12 • 3/21/11
And that data should be..• Available (publically)• Documented and organised• Or you’ll have another ClimateGate
13 • 3/21/11
A selection of data and informatics tools being developed in CCAFS
• Agricultural trial data• GxE analysis with an emphasis on the
E• Setting breeding priorities for a
climate changed world• Analogues• Pulling it all together under a
knowledge management umbrella: the AMKN
14 • 3/21/11
>> Multi-site agricultural trial database(agtrial.org)
20,000+ maize trials in 123 research sites
Effect of +1ºC warming on yield
Sites with >23ºC would suffer even if optimally managed
More than 20% loss in sites with >20ºC, under drought
Lobell et al. 2011
15 • 3/21/11
• Over 3,000 trials• 16 crops• 20 countries• > 15 international and national institutions
New data
>> Multi-site agricultural trial database(agtrials.org)
16 • 3/21/11
Importance & Potential • Collating input climate and
agricultural data• Design of experiments• Calibration, validation and crop
model runs• Exploration of adaptation options
– Genetic improvement– On-farm management practices
• Test them via modelling• Build “adaptation packages”• Assess technology transfer options
(c) Neil Palmer (CIAT)
17 • 3/21/11
>> Multi-site agricultural trial database(agtrial.org)
20,000+ maize trials in 123 research sites
Effect of +1ºC warming on yield
Sites with >23ºC would suffer even if optimally managed
More than 20% loss in sites with >20ºC, under drought
Lobell et al. 2011
18 • 3/21/11
GxE: OPV vs hybrid
19 • 3/21/11
GxE: duration
20 • 3/21/11
21 • 3/21/11
Current Climatic Suitability
22 • 3/21/11
Current Climatic Constraints
23 • 3/21/11
Future Suitability
24 • 3/21/11
Benefits of breeding options
25 • 3/21/11
The Analogue Concept
• We heavily rely on models to tell us what the future holds– GCM/RCM projections– Crop models, household models,
farming system models
• Few take into account human adaptive capacity, and social and cultural factors that contribute to decision making
26 • 3/21/11
The Analogue Concept
• Analogues: Use spatial variability in climate as a means of having a real experiment of what the future holds for a site
• Where can I find my future projected conditions, TODAY?
27 • 3/21/11 Karnal (India)
• Rainy season from June to September
28 • 3/21/11
Why we think this an important approach
• Facilitating farmer-to-farmer exchange of knowledge
• Permitting validation of computational models and trialing of new technologies/techniques
29 • 3/21/11
http://gismap.ciat.cgiar.org/analogues
30 • 3/21/11
Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1
>> Spotlight on: The AMKN Platform
It links farmers’ realities on the ground with promising scientific research outputs, to inspire new ideas and highlight current challenge.
Why is it useful?
The Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Knowledge Network platform is a portal for accessing and sharing agricultural A&M knowledge.
What CCAFS output?
31 • 3/21/11
AN EXAMPLE OF USING THE SOME OF THESE APPROACHES TO LINK KNOWLEDGE AND DATA
32 • 3/21/11 Starting site: Kaffrine, Senegal
- CCAFS site- 600 mm annual rainfall- Min. Temp. 14.8°C - Max. Temp. 39.1°C
- Main crops:- Millet- Maize- Peanuts- Sorghum- Sesame
-Climate Change threats:
Erratic Rainfall
-Socio-economic constraints:
-High poverty level - Low access to capital - No attractive market
Kaffrine, Senegal (x:-15.54, y:14.106)
33 • 3/21/11 Change in climate, 2020 – Kaffrine, Senegal
Average Climate Change Trends:- Decrease in precipitation from 660 mm to 590.58 mm- Increase of mean temperature of 0.344°C
34 • 3/21/11 Crop suitability – Kaffrine, Senegal
35 • 3/21/11
- Mean of the dissimilarity index of 24 GCMs between the starting site Kaffrine, Senegal with the entire world
- Climate parameters:-Monthly temperature - Monthly rainfall
- Scenario A1B, 2030
High climate similarity
Where can we find a region with similar climatic conditions to Kaffrine, Senegal in 2030?
Climate similarity
36 • 3/21/11
CCAFS site with minimum value of dissimilarity with the climate of Kaffrine, Senegal = Tougou, Burkina Faso
Best consistency between the 24 GCM’s = Fakara , Niger
The current climate of Fakara is similar to the future projected climate in Kaffrine
Fakara is the most likely analogue of Kaffrine
Zoom on high similarity climate of CCAFS sites
37 • 3/21/11
- CCAFS site -500 mm annual rainfall- Min. Temp. 15.7°C- Max. Temp. 41.3°C
- Main crops:- Millet- Beans- Leafy vegetables- Maize- Sorghum
- Climate Change threats:
Drought
- Socio-economic constraints:
- Low level of infrastructure - Limited access to market
Fakara, Niger (x:2.687, y:13.517)
Analogue of Kaffrine, Senegal: Fakara, Niger
38 • 3/21/11 Comparison of current conditions
Current conditions Kaffrine, Senegal
Fakara, Niger = Future condition of
Kaffrine
ZoneTransition zone from the
Sahelien towards the Sudan Savannah zone
Within the Sahel
Altitude 15 m 225 mAnnual rainfall average
600 mm 500 mm
Minimum Temperatur
e 14.8 °C 15.7 °C
Maximum Temperatur
e39.1 °C 41.3 °C
Main crops
Millet Maize
PeanutsSorghum
Sesame
Millet Beans
Leafy vegetables Maize
SorghumLength of Growing period
130 days 95 days
Soil type Deep sandy soil Sandy and clay sandy soilSoil FAO
ClassFerric Luvisols Luvic Arenosols
Socio-economic
constraints
High poverty level Low access to capital
No attractive market
Low level of infrastructure Limited access
to market
39 • 3/21/11
Kaffrine, Senegal
Fakara, Niger
Millet Maize
PeanutsSorghum
Sesame
Millet Beans Leafy
vegetables Maize
Sorghum
Comparison of main crops
40 • 3/21/11 Agtrial database - Application
Kontela, Mali is another potential analogue to Kaffrine, Senegal
The sorghum yield data in Kontela, Mali could help us to know the future sorghum yield in Kaffrine, Senegal.Sorghum yield data
Sorghum Variety K (kg/ha) N
(kg/ha) P (kg/ha) Lime (kg/ha) Manure (kg/ha) Grain yield
(t/ha)CSM63E 0 0 0 0 0 0.68 CSM63E 0 0 0 0 0 0.10 CSM63E 60 0 30 0 0 0.55 CSM63E 60 100 0 0 0 0.33 CSM63E 0 100 30 0 0 0.38 CSM63E 60 100 30 0 0 1.40 CSM63E 60 100 30 0 0 0.54 CSM63E 60 100 30 500 0 1.68 CSM63E 60 100 30 0 10000 1.06 CSM63E 60 100 30 0 0 0.08
Yield data available in the Agtrials database:http://www.agtrials.org:85/
41 • 3/21/11
Millet Yield dataVariety name Grain Yield (t/ha)Nyamkombo 0.87Okashana-2 1.09
PMV-2 0.78PMV-3 0.86
SDMV89003 0.88SDMV89007 0.82SDMV90031 1.16SDMV91018 0.91SDMV92033 0.75SDMV92038 0.82SDMV95032 1.03SDMV95033 0.93SDMV95045 1.13SDMV96075 0.89SDMV97007 0.87SDMV97011 0.87TSPM91018 0.69SDMV89005 0.90SDMV92035 0.51SDMV92037 1.01SDMV95009 0.77SDMV95014 0.68SDMV95025 0.73ZPMV92005 0.50ZPMV94001 0.60
Agtrial database - Application
Senegal
Hombolo, Tanzania is another potential analogue to Kaffrine, Senegal
Yield data available in the Agtrial database:http://www.agtrials.org:85/The MILLET yield data in Homboro, Tanzania could help us to know the future millet yield in Kaffrine, Senegal.
42 • 3/21/11
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