The Mindset of Managing Uncertainty: The Key to Agile Success

AW1 ConcurrentSession11/13/201310:15AM

"The Mindset of Managing Uncertainty:

The Key to Agile Success"

Presented by:

Ahmed Sidky Sidky Consulting Group

Broughttoyouby:

340CorporateWay,Suite300,OrangePark,[email protected]

Ahmed Sidky SCG Inc.

Ahmed Sidky, aka Dr. Agile, combines more than fifteen years of software development experience with research from his Ph.D. in agile transformation and agility assessment to guide enterprise agile transformations in Fortune 100 companies. Ahmed helps small to medium companies worldwide realize sustainable organizational agility and educates peopleCEOs to developerson the agile mindset and creating lean high-performing teams. The principal consultant at SCG Inc. and co-author of Becoming Agile in an Imperfect World, Ahmed consults, teaches, and writes. He co-founded the International Consortium for Agile, sat on the steering committee for the creation of the PMI-ACP certification, and is a frequent speaker at agile conferences worldwide.

An Interactive Talk led by !

Ahmed Sidky, Ph.D. !!

The Mindset of Managing Uncertainty: The Key to Agile Success

!!

15!!!YEARS!

on#the#PMI*ACP##Steering#commi3ee#

Ph.D.#in##Agile##Transforma;on#and##Agility#Assessment#

years#of#experience#in#so@ware#development,#management#and#delivery#

Co*founded# Co*authored#

Consulted,#trained#or#coached#with##people#and#teams#from##

Program#Chair#

How do we learn to be Agile?

Shu!Follow!the!Rule!

Ha!Break!the!Rule!

!

Stages#of#Learning#1.!Shu!!2.!Ha!!3.!Ri!

Ri!Be!the!Rule!

!

Stages#of#Learning#1.#Shu#(Following#Precisely#without#Modica;on#)!!2.!Ha!!3.!Ri!

Stages#of#Learning#1.!Shu!!2.#Ha#(Shi@ing#Between#Techniques)!!3.!Ri!

Stages#of#Learning#1.!Shu!!2.!Ha!!3.#Ri#(New#techniques,#even#unconsciously)#

Shu!Follow!the!Rule!

Ha!Break!the!Rule!

!

Stages#of#Learning#1.!Shu!!2.!Ha!!3.!Ri!

Ri!Be!the!Rule!

!

WHY DO WE WANT TO BE AGILE ?

Build#

Right!!Product!

The!!To!

How we Typically build Stuff

Idea! Plan!/!Procure!

Do!Work!(Execute!/!Implement)!!!to!produce!desired!Output!

Design!/!Explore!the!Output!

Deliver!Output! Get!Reward!

Agree!on!Output!(what!the!customer!actually!needs)!

Know#what#to#build#when#there#is#uncertainty#about#what#to#build#

How do we

Know#when#we#will#nish#when#there#are#lots#of#changes#

Execute#when#you#cant#control#the#circumstances#around#execu;on#

Lets Explore More

Plan!/!Procure!

Do!Work!(Execute!/!Implement)!!!to!produce!desired!Output!

Design!/!Explore!the!Output!

Idea!

Deliver!Output! Get!Reward!

Agree!on!Output!(what!the!customer!actually!needs)!

Knowledge Work

Task Work

Not all work is the same

Outcome#based#on#tangible#physical#components#

Outcome#based#on#intangible,##thoughts,#and#knowledge#

Exact#outcome#is##knowable#in#advance#

To#what#degree#can#you#coordinate#and#control#all#the#players#needed#to#develop#the#outcome?##

To#what#degree#is#the#outcome#dependent#on#intangible#knowledge#elements?#

To#what#degree#is#the#outcome#knowable#in#advance?#

#

Indu

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ge

Kno

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Age

Important Questions about Work

Dened#Process#to#realize#outcome#

Empirical#Process##to#realize#outcome#




Exact#outcome#is##not#knowable#in#advance#

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Our Mentality Towards Work

Is#the#outcome#knowable#in#advance?## Exact&outcome&is&&knowable&in&advance& Exact&outcome&is&&not&knowable&in&advance&

Exact&outcome&is&&knowable&in&advance&

Exact&outcome&is&&not&knowable&in&advance&

Is#the#outcome#knowable#in#advance?##

Exact&outcome&is&&knowable&in&advance&

Exact&outcome&is&&not&knowable&in&advance&

IKIWISI#Ill!Know!It!When!I!See!It!

Is#the#outcome#knowable#in#advance?##

Experience X



Exact!outcome!can!not!be!specied!upfront!before!the!actual!work!gets!done!through!modeling.!It!is!possible!to!rst!complete!detailed!specicaTons,!freeze!them!and!then!build.!!!

Exact!outcome!can!not!be!specied!upfront!since!it!is!discovered!as!the!actual!work!gets!done.!AdapTve!steps!driven!by!build!and!

feedback!are!required.!!

We!keep!discovering!more!about!what!we!are!building!as!we!build!it!

Almost!all!of!the!discovery!about!what!we!are!building!is!done!upfront!

Discovery Changes Understanding







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Our Mentality Towards Work

Percep;on#and#Cost#of#Change# Outcome(based(on(tangible(&(physical(components( Outcome(based(on(intangible,((thoughts,(and(knowledge(

Boundary#of#Done# Outcome(based(on(tangible(&(physical(components( Outcome(based(on(intangible,((thoughts,(and(knowledge(

The#Eect#of#Technology# Outcome(based(on(tangible(&(physical(components( Outcome(based(on(intangible,((thoughts,(and(knowledge(



Is#the#cost#of#the#change#smaller#than#or#equal#to#the#value#of#the#desired#change?#

When!tangible!or!physical!components!are!part!of!the!building!process!(e.g.!steel,!chips,!gears,!servers,!hard!drivesetc.)!the!cost!of!change!is!commonly!high!leading!to!a!desire!to!get!it!right!the!rst!Tme!and!avoid!the!cost!of!change.!

When!the!outcome!is!dependent!mostly!on!intangible!components!(e.g.!so[ware,!words,!thoughts,!plans!etc.)!

the!cost!of!change!is!commonly!perceived!to!be!low!leading!to!a!desire!

keep!evolving!and!changing!the!outcome!

Continuous Change is the New Norm



CreaTvity!and!new!thought!is!needed!during!execuTon.!!

!Mostly!of!unpredictable!actors!that!

you!can!not!coordinate!or!control!!

ExecuTon!can!not!be!planned!in!detailed!but!rather!by!inspect!and!adapt!!

!!

No!creaTvity!or!new!thought!is!needed!during!execuTon!!Mostly!predictable!actors!that!you!can!coordinate!and!control!!It!is!possible!to!idenTfy,!dene,!schedule,!and!order!all!the!detailed!acTviTes.!!!

How much can we really manage

Dened&Process&to&realize&outcome&

Empirical&Process&&to&realize&outcome&Coordina;on#and#Control#VS#Inspect#and#Adapt#

Dened&Process&to&realize&outcome&

Empirical&Process&&to&realize&outcome&Rehearse#VS#Learn##







The Shift From Assembly Line to Knowledge Era?

This is the general

direction This is how we

think and manage

Stress Lower Quality

Crunch testing

Work weekends

Demotivated 32!

Overtime

Source: Jim Johnson of the Standish Group,!Keynote Speech XP 2002

Always

Often

Sometimes Rarely

Never

Cost of having a Fixed Mindset in dealing with uncertainty

33!

What!do!you!do!?!




The#Tunnel#of#Uncertainty#We!have!an!idea!where!we!are!going,!and!we!dont!know!exactly!what!the!outcome!will!be,!and!we!know!there!will!be!lots!of!changes!and!we!really!cant!control!all!the!players!needed!to!produce!the!outcome!according!to!plan.!!

What!is!our!

Mindset!towards!succeeding!when!there!is!!

Uncertainty!

What!is!our!established!set!of!aatudes!and!habits!

Uncertainty!towards!succeeding!when!there!is!!

I!believe!that!my![Intelligence,#Personality,#Character]#is!inherent!and!staTc.!Lockedcdown!or!xed.!My!potenTal!is!determined!

at!birth.!It!doesnt!change.!

I!believe!that!my![Intelligence,#Personality,#Character]!can!be!conTnuously!developed.!My!true!!potenTal!is!unknown!and!unknowable.!!

Growth!!Mindset!

Fixed!Mindset!

Avoid#failure##Desire#to#Look#smart!

Avoids#challenges!S;ck#to#what#they#know!

Feedback#and#cri;cism#is#personal#

They#dont#change#or#improve#!!

Desire#con;nuous#learning#Confront#uncertain;es.##Embracing#challenges!Not#afraid#to#fail##Put#lots#of#eort#to#learn!

Feedback#is#about#current#capabili;es##

Based!on!the!work!of!Dr.!Carol!Dweck!Fixed Mindset vs. Growth Mindset

What!do!you!do!?!

Reducing!uncertainty!by!nailing!things!down.!Looking!to!x!and!conrm!things.!!!!!

Reducing!uncertainty!by!discovering!and!learning.!Looking!to!learn!and!discover!in!the!most!ecient!way!possible.!!

Fixed#Mindset#!approach!to!!managing!!uncertainty!!

Agile#Mindset#!approach!to!!managing!!uncertainty!!




Fixed#Mindset#approach!to!delivery!(Assembly!Line)!

Growth#Mindset#approach!to!delivery!(Knowledge!Work)!

Must#nail#down#the#output#in#order#to#start#delivery#(Liner#Thinking)#

Discover#and#learn#through#valuable#output#and#welcoming#change#(Circular#Thinking##IKIWISI)#

Value Based Discovery The Agile Mindset towards Work

Focus!on!ecient,!eecTve!and!

conTnuous!learning!

Lower!the!cost!!of!change!so!we!can!welcome!the!

learning!

Deliver!value!with!every!step!so!we!can!focus!on!learning!!

Different Types of Deliverables

Documents!

Wireframes!

Oncscreen!InteracTve!Prototypes!

Working!System!or!!Product!

EndctocEnd!!Working!System!!or!Product!

Discussions!or!Reviews!

EecTv

eness!o

f!fee

dback!!

to!help!custom

ers!u

nderstan

d!wha

t!the

y!wan

t!

Richness!of!Deliverable!!

No!InteracTvity!

InteracTve!Paper!Prototypes!

Screen!Designs!

Experiencing!the!system!

ROI!from

!deliverable!

1960#

1995#

1980#

1990#

2001#

1958:!Project!Mercury!(IID,!IteraTons,!TDD)!Gerald!Weinberg!

1976!:!EVO!Tom!Gilb!

1980!:!AdapTve!Programming!Gerald!Weinberg!

1972c1975!FeedbackcDriven,!Large!Government!Programs!

1985!:!Spiral!Model!Barry!Boehm!

1986!!No!Silver!Bullet!

Advantages!of!IID!Fred!Brooks!

1986:!The!New!New!!Product!Development!Game!Hirotaka!Takeuchi!and!!Ikujiro!Nonaka!

1990:!Scrum!Timeboxed!IteraTons!Empirical!process!control!Je!Sutherland!and!Ken!Schwaber!

1994:!Dynamic!System!!Development!Method!(DSDM)!16!Rad!PracTToner!FormalizaTon!of!RAD!Used!mostly!in!Europe!!

1995:!RUP!/!Unifed!process!UML!/!Architecture!Centric!Use!Cases!

1996:!!Extreme!Programming!Technical!/!Engineering!PracTces!Kent!Beck,!Ward!Cunningham,!Ron!Jeries!

1998:!Crystal!Family!of!Methodologies!SituaTonal!Specic!PracTces!Alistair!Cockburn!

1997!Feature!Driven!Development!

Value!Driven!Je!de!Luca!

!

!

Jerry Weinberg#!

#We were doing incremental development as early as 1957, in Los Angeles, under the direction of Bernie Dimsdale [at IBMs Service Bureau Corporation]. He was a colleague of John von Neumann, so perhaps he learned it there, or assumed it as totally natural. I do remember Herb Jacobs (primarily, though we all participated) developing a large simulation for Motorola, where the technique used was, as far as I can tell, indistinguishable from XP.#!

# I believe in this concept, but the implementation described above is risky and invites failure.# !

Dr. Winston Royce#!

!

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338

!

!

Fred Brooks#!

#Much of present-day software acquisition procedure rests upon the assumption that one can specify a satisfactory system in advance, get bids for its construction, have it built, and install it. I think this assumption is fundamentally wrong, and that many software acquisition problems spring from that fallacy.#!

1970!!Royce!Waterfall!

Kent!Beck!(XP) ! !! !!!!!!!!!!!

The Agile Manifesto

Robert!C.!MarTn!(XP)!!

Ron!Jeries!(XP)!!

James!Grenning!(XP)!!

MarTn!Fowler!(XP,+)!

Ward!Cunningham!(XP,!+)!

Je!Sutherland!(Scrum)!!

Ken!Schwaber!(Scrum)!

Mike!Beedle!(Scrum)!

Andrew!Hunt!(PP)!!!

Dave!Thomas!(PP)!!

Alistair!Cockburn!(Crystal)!

Jim!Highsmith!(ASD)!!

Jon!Kern!(FDD)!!

Arie!van!Bennekum!(DSDM)!

Steve!Mellor !!!

Brian!Marick!!

February!11th!2001!Snowbird,!Utah!

43!

We!are!uncovering!berer!ways!of!developing!!so[ware!by!doing!it!and!helping!others!do!it.!Through!this!work!we!have!come!to!value:!

!

Individuals!and!interacTons!over!processes!and!tools!!Working!so[ware!over!comprehensive!documentaTon!!!

Customer!collaboraTon!over!contract!negoTaTon!!!Responding!to!change!over!following!a!plan!!

!That!is,!while!there!is!value!in!the!items!on!the!right,!we!value!the!items!on!

the!le[!more.!

The Agile Manifesto February!11th!2001!

Empirical)Process))to)realize)outcome)

Outcome)based)on)intangible,))thoughts,)and)knowledge)

Exact)outcome)is))not)knowable)in)advance)

How!to!manage!Uncertainty#using!the!Agile#Mindset#in!the!So@ware#domain##

We!are!uncovering!berer!ways!of!developing!!so[ware!by!doing!it!and!helping!others!do!it.!Through!this!work!we!have!come!to!value:!

!Individuals!and!interacTons!over!processes!and!tools!!Working!so[ware!over!comprehensive!documentaTon!!!

Customer!collaboraTon!over!contract!negoTaTon!!!Responding!to!change!over!following!a!plan!!

!That!is,!while!there!is!value!in!the!items!on!the!right,!we!value!the!items!on!the!le[!more.!

THE!AGILE!MANIFESTO!

A!mindset!is!the!established!set!of!aatudes!held!by!someone!! Welcome Change#

Failing Early# Build and Feedback loops # Continuous Delivery # Value-Driven Development # Small value-add slices# Learn through Discovery# Continuous Improvement #

Agile#is#a#mindset#

Established!through!4!values!

[that!in!so[ware!world!is]!

Grounded!by!12!principles,!&!

Manifested!through!many!many!dierent!pracTces!!

Agile#is#a#mindset#





Individuals!and!interacTons!over!processes!and!tools!!Working!so[ware!over!comprehensive!documentaTon!!!Customer!collaboraTon!over!contract!negoTaTon!!!Responding!to!change!over!following!a!plan!!!

A!Value!is!an!established!ideal!that!the!members!of!a!given!society!regard!as!desirable!

Agile#is#a#mindset#





1. Our highest priority is to satisfy the customer through early and continuous delivery of valuable software. #

2. Welcome changing requirements, even late in development. Agile processes harness change for the customer's competitive advantage. #

3. Deliver working software frequently, from a couple of weeks to a couple of months, with a preference to the shorter timescale. #

4. Business people and developers must work together daily throughout the project. #5. Build projects around motivated individuals. Give them the environment and support they

need, and trust them to get the job done. #6. The most efficient and effective method of conveying information to and within a

development team is face-to-face conversation. #7. Working software is the primary measure of progress. #8. Agile processes promote sustainable development. The sponsors, developers, and users

should be able to maintain a constant pace indefinitely. #9. Continuous attention to technical excellence and good design enhances agility. #10. Simplicity--the art of maximizing the amount of work not done--is essential.#11. The best architectures, requirements, and designs emerge from self-organizing teams. #12. At regular intervals, the team reflects on how to become more effective, then tunes and

adjusts its behavior accordingly. #

Agile#is#a#mindset#





Product!visioning!Project!chartering!Anity!(relaTve)!esTmaTon!!Sizecbased!(point)!esTmaTon!Planning!poker!Group!esTmaTon!Valuecbased!documentaTon!PrioriTzed!product!backlog!User!stories!Progressive!elaboraTon!Personas!Story!maps!/!MMF!Story!slicing!Acceptance!tests!as!requirements!Short!iteraTons!WIP!Limits!!Early!and!frequent!releases!Roadmapping!Velocitycbased!planning!and!commitment!IteraTon!planning!/!IteraTon!backlog!Release!planning!/!Release!backlog!Time!boxed!iteraTons!AdapTve!(mulTclevel)!planning!!Risk!backlog!Team!structure!of!VT!/!DT!Pullcbased!systems!Slack!Sustainable!pace!!

Frequent!facectocface!Team!chartering!Crosscsilo!collaboraTve!teams!Selfcorganizing!teams!CrosscfuncTonal!teams!!Servant!leadership!Task!volunteering!Generalizing!specialist!!Tracking!progress!via!velocity!Burncup/burncdown!charts!Refactoring!Automated!unit!tests!Coding!standards!Incremental/evoluTonary!design!Automated!builds!Tencminute!build!Monitoring!technical!debt!Version!control!ConguraTon!management!Test!driven!development!Pair!programming!Spike!soluTons!ConTnuous!integraTon!Incremental!deployment!Simple!design !!!EndcofciteraTon!handscon!UAT!Automated!funcTonal!tests!Automated!developer!tests!(unit!tests)!Exploratory!tesTng!So[ware!metrics!!###

Agile#is#a#mindset#





Scrum!

eXtreme!Programming!

Your!own!Agile!process!

Doing#Agile#Learning!the!pracTces!and!applying!them!without!know!the!mindset!and!principles!to!know!when!to!tailor!and!how!to!select!the!appropriate!pracTces!!

Being#Agile#Internalizing!the!Mindset,!values,!and!principles!then!applying!the!right!pracTces!and!tailoring!them!to!dierent!situaTons!as!they!arise!!

Agile!as!a!Process!and!PracTces!

Agile!as!a!Mindset!and!Culture!

So[ware!Development!!

OperaTons!Ed

ucaT

on!

4!Values!12!Principles!

?!Values!?!Principles!?

!Value

s!?!Principles!

The Agile Mindset and other Domains

Coaching!and!FacilitaTon!

Leadership!Va

lue!

Man

agem

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and!BA

!Learning!!ObjecTves!

Learning!!ObjecTves!L

earning!!

ObjecTv

es!

The Agile Mindset to Disciplines inside Software Development

9*10# 10*11# 11*12# 12*1# 1*2# 2*3# 3*4# 4*5#

Day!1!

Day!2!

Day!3!

Day!4!

Day!5!

Day!6!

Day!7!

Day!8!

Day!9!

Day!10!

Other!

IteraTon!Planning!Standcup!Demo!RetrospecTve!Release!Planning!

Education verses Training A view of the Doing of Agile vs the Being of Agile

1! 2! 3! 4! 5! 6! 7! 8!

9! 10! 11! 12! 13! 14! 15! 16!

17! 18! 19! 20! 21! 22! 23! 24!

25! 26! 27! 28! 29! 30! 31! 32!

33! 34! 35! 36! 37! 38! 39! 40!

41! 42! 43! 44! 45! 46! 47! 48!

49! 50! 51! 52! 53! 54! 55! 56!

57! 58! 59! 60! 61! 62! 63! 64!

65! 66! 67! 68! 69! 70! 71! 72!

73! 74! 75! 76! 77! 78! 79! 80!

22% Of peoples time is consumed by doing agile

practices what about the rest?

People (Values,)Beliefs,)A.tudes,)Norms,)Habits))

Process (Value)Chain,)Policies,)Opera?ons,)Business)Processes))

Structure (Roles)and)Responsibili?es,)Decisions,)Organiza?on))

)

Strategy (Goals,)Measures)of)Success,)Rewards))

Leadership (Style,)Values,)Habits))

Cultu

re' Culture'

Culture'

Culture: The Organizational Ecosystem

People (Values,)Beliefs,)A.tudes,)Norms,)Habits))

Process (Value)Chain,)Policies,)Opera?ons,)Business)Processes))

Structure (Roles)and)Responsibili?es,)Decisions,)Organiza?on))

)

Strategy (Goals,)Measures)of)Success,)Rewards))

Leadership (Style,)Values,)Habits))

Cultu

re'

Culture'

Culture'

Change!

Understanding Resistance

11/6/13!

ICM

ICP

ICE-Team Coaching

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Agile Pro

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The Agile Learning Roadmap by

Certifications Completed Status towards

Expert Level

Progress within Tracks

Learning Objective Completed Learning

Objective Not Yet Completed

Selected Learning Tracks

An!Agile!PracTce!

Form!Ceremony!MoTons!!

Value!Impact!Essence!

Enablers!Sustainers!Support!

These!are!Items!that!dont#relate!to!the!pracTce!directly!but!are!needed!for!the!pracTce!to!be!adopted!successfully!in!the!rst!place.!The!absence!of!these!items!will!jeopardize!the!use!of!the!pracTce!as!well!as!the!sustainability!of!the!team!doing!the!pracTce.!! Each!pracTce!is!adopted!in!the!rst!place!to!achieve!a!value!or!principle!that!is!

ulTmately!benecial!to!the!team.!Therefore!when!the!pracTce!is!properly!adopted!and!pracTced!in!its!essence#(not#just#form),!what!are!the!evident!impacts!or!results!of!adopTng!this!pracTce.!This!could!be!certain!cultural!or!behavioral!impacts!or!tangible!benets.!This!aspect!of!the!pracTce!is!all!about!what!should!the!team!or!organizaTon!expect#to#see#when!we!do!it!successfully!!not!about!the!form!but!about!the!essence,!value,!purpose.!

What!are!the!evident!acTviTes!and!behaviors!that!manifest!that!the!team!is!doing!a!certain!pracTce.!What!is!the!ceremonial!aspect!or!form!of!the!pracTce?!

If!a!team!is!realizing!the!intended!impact!of!a!pracTce!then!the!form!does!not!make!a!dierence!!that!is!why!we!should!not!assess!only!on!the!Form!of!a!pracTce.!The!opposite!is!also!important:!if!a!team!is!doing!the!form!and!not!geang!the!value!or!the!intended!impact!then!it!is!an!Empty!ritual!

Anatomy!of!an!Agile!PracTce!

Daily!Standup!

Form!Ceremony!MoTons!!

Value!Impact!Essence!

Enablers!Sustainers!Support!

Buycin!!Understanding!the!value!Willingness!to!set!Tme!aside!Not!having!too!many!meeTngs!

!Impediments!are!addressed!Enhanced!communicaTon!Less!assumpTons!!!!

MeeTng!Everyday!for!15!minutes!Anatomy!of!an!Agile!PracTce!Example:!Daily!Standcup!MeeTngs!

Thank you Questions?

Ahmed!Sidky,!Ph.D.!Twirer:!@[email protected][email protected]!

www.icagile.com!