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The Quadruple Squeeze –Meeting the dual challenge of
development and sustainability
Louise Karlberg, PhD
Dual challenge – environment
and development
Non-negotiables:
• Meeting food requirements – MDG’s
• Not exceed critical sustainability thresholds
What are the remaining degrees of freedom for
humanity on planet Earth?
Human growth20/80 dilemma
Ecosystems60 % loss dilemma
Climate550/450/350
dilemma
Surprise99/1 dilemma
TThe
Quadruple
Squeeze
Climate
Change
Ocean
acidification
Ozone
depletion
Global
Freshwater
Use
Rate of
Biodiversity
Loss
Biogeochemical
loading: Global
N & P Cycles
Atmospheric
Aerosol
Loading
Land
System
Change
Chemical
Pollution
Planetary
Boundaries
The Development Challenge
• 850 million malnourished
• 1.1 billion poor
• 70 % poor live in rural areas and depend on land/water based
ecosystem services
• Agriculture a key to poverty alleviation and socio-economic
development
• Global change and local environmental degradation eroding
capacity to achieve the MDGs
• Social and Ecological vulnerabilities on the increase
• Frequency of environmental shocks on the increase
• Disasters hit vulnerable communities hardest
• Innovations in management and governance give hope
Water limitations for food production
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
0 1000 2000 3000 4000
Available blue water (m3/cap/yr)
Tot
avai
lab
le w
ate
r (m
3/c
ap/y
r)
bc
d
a
Income (2005) Deficit Surplus
Low
1404 km3/yr
REMAINING DEFICITS
3790 Mp
407 km3/yr
FOOD EXPORT
477 Mp
Medium
487 km3/yr
FOOD IMPORT
2120 Mp
2680 km3/yr
FOOD EXPORT
1610 Mp
High
259 km3/yr
FOOD IMPORT
522 Mp
876 km3/yr
FOOD EXPORT
631 Mp
Assume irrigation expansion and
more crop per drop
Is there enough water to produce food?
-YES!
So, can trade solve the problem?
How many people live in low income
countries?
2050 scenario
Conclusions on development
challenge
Huge need to improve yields in the tropics. This
could result in trade-offs:
• N- and P- cycles (eutrophication)
• Pollution (increased pesticide, herbicide use)
• Agricultural land use expansion
• Carbon sequestration
• Down-stream fresh-water availability (and timing)
Within the boundaries of the non-
negotiables: illustrating opportunities
and trade-offs
Agriculture 20-30% of GHG emissions
(total antropogenic emissions = 9 Gt/yr)
Agricultural soils pot C. seq rate of 0.4-1.2
GtC/yr by 2050 (Lal et al)
Higher yields
Lower net GHG emissions
Less water downstream
Some questions for the future• Are current agricultural techniques sufficient to
meet the dual challenge of increased food
production and sustainability?
• How large will the future bioenergy production be,
and what are the consequences for food
production, other ecosystem services and CC
mitigation?
• What are the impacts of life-styles (consumption
of commodities, energy, transportation, diets etc) –
global distribution
Remaining sustainable while developing
• Illustrations of TRADE-OFFS and SYNERGIES
• Assessments across scales
• Assessments focussing on several sustainability criteria
(e.g. nutrients, land-use, biodiversity, carbon and water)
• A multi-sectoral approach (e.g. food, feed, fuel, fibre)
• Assessments of ecosystem services, livelihoods, resilience,
policies and institutions, etc.