The Singularity

AKA The Rapture of the Nerds

Joel Pitt - http://blog.ferrouswheel.info/

Outline

Singularity definition Why is it important? How might it happen? Arguments against and problems Conclusions

Just what IS the “Singularity”?

The creation of greater than human intelligence.

The recursive self-improvement in said intelligence.

A point at which our predictions about the future break down.

Why is the Singularity important?

A major paradigm shift for humanity Raises, and potentially will answer,

questions about consciousness and intellect

Magic:– “Any sufficiently advanced technology is

indistinguishable from magic.” - Arthur C. Clarke

Ensure/Assist our survival against existential risks*

*http://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html

Avenues to the Singularity

Artificial Intelligence Direct brain-computer

interfaces Biological augmentation of

the brain or genetic engineering

Ultra-high-resolution scans of the brain followed by computer emulation

The Trends

Ray Kurzweil’s take: It's all about exponential curves.– Moore’s Law– Paradigm Shifts

The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology (2005) by Ray Kurzweil

The Gillette SingularityOn the caution of extrapolation…

But then, the rate of nano-tech R&D spending could mean we have nano-tech razors in 2015.

Artificial General Intelligence

Narrow vs. strong AI. Best/safest bet? Several strong candidates:

– Novamente (potentially opencog), Ben Goertzel– A2I2, Peter Voss– NARS, Pei Wang– Self-Aware Systems, Steve Omohundro

and if they fail, Google has AI on their project planner in the distant future at 2030.

Hard vs Soft Take-off

Dependent on:– Duration between improvement loops– Improvement factor

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

Intelligence G/IQ/whatever

Good vs. Bad

The dilemma: If you make a recursively self-improving intelligence system, how do you ensure it plays nice with humans?

Friendly AI vs. Unfriendly AI Singularity Institute for Artificial

Intelligence’s research focus. Important to get it right first time!

Problems

The problem with extrapolation (e.g. The Gilette Singularity)

Can an intelligent entity design a more intelligent entity?

Is there some inherent limit to intelligence? Current inability to ensure a safe singularity

When might it happen?

Dependent on so many things, but let's use the wisdom of crowds:

from Bruce J. Klein's blog: http://www.novamente.net/bruce/index.php/?p=54

Conclusions

The Singularity, whether it eventuates or not, has the potential to cause tremendous good, but also the potential to result in great harm. Thus it is worth thinking about now, while we still have the ability to influence the direction it proceeds in.

We are in for interesting times…

Further reading

The Singularity is Near by Ray Kurzweil The Singularity Institute for Artificial

Intelligence http://singinst.org/ The Wikipedia page on “Technological

singularity”