Thin-Film and Printed Battery Markets-2015-2022 Sample Chapter

n-tech Research Report

Thin-Film and Printed Battery Markets—

2015-2022

Issue date: April 2015 Code: Nano-821

n-tech Research PO Box 3840 Glen Allen, VA 23058

Phone: 804-938-0030

Email: [email protected]


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Thin-Film and Printed Battery Markets — 2015-2022

Report Summary

n-tech Research has covered thin-film and printed batteries markets for seven years now. During that time we've seen many companies come and go, while others make steady progress in technology and even revenues, even as markets that were expected to embrace these batteries haven't really come on as strongly as hoped (such as RFIDs). This sector has always had a chicken-and-egg problem: it needs secure reliable end markets representing major volumes, but those markets urgently demand a supply-chain infrastructure ready to deliver such products.

We do see some increasing (if yet cautious) optimism for some of those already anticipated markets. Powered smart cards are welcoming trends in OTP financial transactions that emphasize new functionality, and card costs approaching levels where issuers might bite, plus some new card suppliers entering the mix. Other firms continue to point to "smart" labels and packaging in specific areas emphasizing both higher value and disposability, in part reflecting more consumer-facing product distribution that shifts the thinking of where such tagging occurs in the supply chain.

At the same time, we continue to see emerging over the past year the rise of some potentially massive and lucrative market opportunities for thin-film and printed batteries. The "Internet-of-Things" and wireless sensor networks present tantalizing opportunities,


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often paired with energy harvesting capabilities, to drive sensing capabilities in remote locations from wind turbines to building systems.

Perhaps the area with the greatest potential is in consumer electronics, where thin-film batteries would seem to have advantages over standard liquid-electrolyte lithium-ion batteries in higher energy density, safety, and long cycle life. Building on some interesting developments in 2013, we're now hearing that solid-state thin-film batteries are indeed gaining traction in some high-volume applications, including from the likes of Google. And then there's the emerging category of wearable electronics, with overlaps into both the IoT and consumer electronics.

In this report n-tech Research examines all these end markets, as well as the latest developments in thin-film and printed battery technologies, from materials and design to manufacturing, and the supplier landscape as it stands today. We include eight-year forecasts for volumes and revenues.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Executive Summary E.1 Changes in the Thin Battery Supplier Landscape E.1.1 Cymbet Goes Dark E.1.2 IPS Update: Rumors Confirmed? E.2 Update on End Markets E.2.1 Powered Cards: Ready to Deliver? E.2.2 Smart Packaging: Promises, Promises E.2.3 Now More than Ever: Sensors and the IoT E.2.4 Is Consumer Electronics the Next Frontier E.3 Improvements in Battery Technologies E.3.1 Electrodes and Electrolytes E.3.2 Printed Batteries, Still a Screen-printed World E.3.3 Stretching the Limits of Folding Batteries E.4 Companies to Watch E.4.1 Apple, Samsung, and LG E.4.2 Imprint Energy E.4.3 Blue Spark Technologies (U.S.) E.4.4 Enfucell (Finland) E.4.5 Solicore (U.S.) E.4.6 STMicroelectronics (Switzerland) E.4.7 Various Asian Suppliers: Rocket, Fullriver, Toes, Prologium, PowerStream, etc. E.4.8 Sakti3 E.5 Summary of Eight-Year Market Forecasts for Thin-Film and Printed Batteries Chapter One: Introduction 1.1 Background to this Report 1.1.1 Needed: Better Supply Chains


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1.1.2 Paging Godot: Powered Cards 1.1.3 Sensors and Vertical Markets: Ready, Aim, Aim... 1.1.4 Consumer Electronics: The Way Forward for Thin Batteries? 1.2 Objective and Scope of this Report 1.3 Methodology of this Report 1.4 Plan of this Report Chapter Two: Technical Trends in Thin-Film and Printed Batteries 2.1 Energy/Power Density 2.1.1 Research Activity in Energy and Power Density 2.2 Form Factor: Size, Shape and Flexibility 2.2.1 Recent Progress in Flexible Thin Batteries 2.2.2 Game of Phones: Big Players Eyeing Flexible Batteries 2.2.3 Foldable Batteries 2.2.4 Flexible Thin Batteries and Carbon Nanotubes 2.2.5 How Flexible is Flexible? 2.3 Lifetime 2.4 Temperature Stability 2.5 Environmental and Safety 2.6 Update on Thin-Film Battery Electrolytes 2.6.1 Compelling Arguments for Solid-state Electrolytes 2.6.2 LiPON Batteries 2.6.3 Lithium Polymer Batteries 2.6.4 Newer Candidates for Solid-State Electrolytes 2.6.5 Still Chasing the Dream of Solid-State Electrolytes 2.7 Electrode Materials and Chemistries 2.7.1 Anodes 2.7.2 Cathodes 2.7.3 Printed Battery Chemistries 2.8 Manufacturing Technology/Process Improvements 2.8.1 Deposition 2.8.2 PARC's Co-extrusion Technology 2.8.3 Thin-Film Tool Suppliers Seeking Markets 2.8.4 Manufacturing Improvements in Printed Batteries 2.8.5 3D Printing Microbatteries 2.8.6 Printed Electronics: The Comeback Continues 2.9 Key Points in this Chapter Chapter Three: Thin Batteries and Consumer Electronics 3.1 Electronics for Consumers: Carefully Defining Future Markets 3.2 Cell Phones: A Land of Promise? 3.2.1 Battery Update: Big Giants' Ever-Growing Interest 3.2.2 What Next 3.2.3 Thin is Still In for Phones, for Now 3.2.4 But Will the Focus Shift to Battery Performance? 3.2.5 Where are the Flexible Phones and What Batteries will they Use? 3.2.6 Not Flexible but Modular, Google's Project Ara 3.3 Wearables: A Nexus of Trends for Thin Batteries


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3.3.1 Battery Requirements for Wearables 3.3.2 The Problem with Wearables: A Smartphone by Any Other Name 3.3.3 Designing to Win: Examples of Wearables with Thin Batteries 3.3.4 Wearables, Clothing, and Thin Battery Technology 3.4 Other Advancements in Thin Battery Technology: For Phones Wearables and EVs 3.4.1 Solid-state Thin-Film Li-ion: Could EV Aims Befit Consumer Electronics? 3.4.2 Thin-film Superbatteries: The Best of Both Worlds? 3.4.3 Flexible Batteries to the Extreme 3.4.4 All-Carbon Printed Batteries for Wearables: EnerMat 3.4.5 Printed Tattoo Batteries 3.5 Challenges and Opportunities for Thin-Film Batteries in Consumer Electronics 3.5.1 The Importance of Scale: Why Battery Firms Should Pursue Consumer Electronics 3.6 Eight-Year Forecast of Thin Batteries in Mobile Phones and Wearable Electronics 3.7 Key Points from This Chapter Chapter Four: Sensors and the IoT: Big Business for Thin Batteries 4.1 Batteries and the Sensor Industry 4.1.1 The Rise of Wireless Sensor Networks 4.2 How the Internet-of-Things is Changing Sensor Networks 4.2.1 Battery Performance in the IoT: How Various Battery Types Stack Up 4.3 Where Thin Batteries Must Improve as IoT Power Sources 4.4 Energy Harvesting and Thin Batteries: Dynamic Duo for Sensors 4.4.1 Battery-Free Wireless Power for the IoT: Ready or Not? 4.5 Novel Examples of Thin Batteries for IoT 4.6 Sensors, Thin Batteries, and the Military 4.6.1 Differences from the Civilian Sensor Market 4.6.2 Military as a Funding Source 4.7 Thoughts About Large-Area Sensors 4.8 Eight-Year Forecast of Thin Batteries in Sensors and the IoT 4.9 Key Points from This Chapter Chapter Five: “Thin” Batteries for Smart Cards 5.1 Evolution of Powered Smart Cards and TF/Printed Batteries 5.1.1 Why TF/Printed Batteries for Powered Smart Cards 5.2 Current and Future Battery Requirements for Smart Cards 5.2.1 Form Factor 5.2.2 High-Temperature Processing 5.2.3 Thoughts about Flexible Glass 5.3 Functionality: Why It's Still an OTP World 5.3.1 What's New in Powered Smart Cards and OTP 5.3.2 Smart Cards versus Mobile/E-Commerce: A Push 5.3.3 Living in Harmony: Powered Smart Card as the E-Wallet 5.4 Other Markets for Powered Smart Cards: Still on the Periphery 5.4.1 Secure ID and Biometric 5.4.2 Medical/Healthcare 5.4.3 Customer Gift/Loyalty Rewards 5.4.4 Powered Smart Cards as Platforms 5.4.5 Powered Smart Cards and the IoT


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5.5 Battery Supplier Landscape for Powered Smart Cards 5.6 Eight-Year Forecast of Thin Batteries for Powered Smart Cards 5.7 Key Points from this Chapter Chapter Six: Thin Batteries for Smart Packaging and Disposable Products 6.1 Framing the Market: Making Packages Smart, With Power 6.1.1 Smart versus Active Packaging 6.2 Smart Food Packaging 6.2.1 Beer and Alcohol 6.2.2 Identifying Value: Retailers and Consumers 6.2.3 Supply Chain Changes: Will Direct-to-Consumer Matter? 6.2.4 n-tech Research' Take: Still Hungry 6.3 Pharmaceuticals 6.3.1 Cold Chain Storage 6.3.2 Compliance Packaging 6.4 Medical Disposables 6.4.1 Transdermal Use 6.4.2 Update on Medical Disposables and Patches 6.4.3 n-tech Research' Take 6.5 Interactive Media: Anything Fit to Print? 6.5.1 Our Take: Don’t Stop the Presses 6.6 Thoughts on Thin Batteries, Packaging, and RFID 6.6.1 Thin Batteries and BAP 6.6.2 RFID: Standards Stew 6.7 Battery Supplier Landscape for Smart Packaging Applications 6.7.1 Blue Spark Technologies (United States) 6.7.2 Enfucell (Finland) 6.7.3 Imprint Energy 6.7.4 Thin Film Electronics ASA (Norway) 6.7.5 Solicore (U.S.) 6.7.6 Toes Opto-Mechatronics Co. (Taiwan) 6.8 Eight-Year Forecast of Printed and Thin-Film Batteries in Smart Packaging Applications 6.9 Key Points from this Chapter Chapter Seven: "Other" Markets for Thin Batteries 7.1 Lingering Potential 7.2 Medical Implants 7.2.1 Requirements for Thin Batteries 7.2.2 Miniature Implantable Medical Devices (MIMD) 7.2.3 Printed Bio-compatible Batteries 7.3 Diagnostics, Smart Bandages, and CPR Devices 7.4 Eight-Year Forecast of Thin Batteries in Medical Implants 7.5 Semiconductor and Computer Industry Applications 7.5.1 Computer Memories and Clocks 7.5.2 Thinking Outside the Box: Other Computing Applications for Thin-film Batteries 7.6 Eight-Year Forecast of Thin Batteries in Semiconductor and Computer Industry Applications 7.7 Key Points in this Chapter


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Chapter Eight: Summary of Eight-Year "Thin" Battery Forecasts 8.1 Summary of Eight-Year "Thin" Battery Forecasts by Application 8.2 Thin-Film Batteries and Printed Battery Breakout 8.2.1 Thin-Film Batteries 8.2.2 Printed Batteries Acronyms and Abbreviations Used In this Report About the Author RELATED REPORTS Power Sources for the Internet-of-Things: Markets and Strategies Thin-Film and Printed Batteries Markets 2014-2021 Batteries and Supercapacitors for the Smart Grid -2013 Powered Smart Card Markets 2012


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Chapter One: Introduction

1.1 Background to this Report

n-tech Research has covered thin-film and printed batteries markets for seven years. During that time we've seen many companies come and go, but a few have managed to make steady progress in technology and even achieve some revenues. Markets that were hoped to embrace these batteries, such as RFIDs and medical patches, haven't really come on as strongly as hoped.

In our 2014 report we acknowledged the thin battery sector's long search for the end-market promised lands, where usage cases would appropriately value thin batteries' unique features such as flexibility, size/shape, rechargeable or essentially disposable—because in most applications they simply can't compete with conventional battery technologies on performance alone.

Here's the problem: some of these end markets have been in the crosshairs for thin batteries for as long as we've been covering this sector (and some go back several years longer than that), but we're still talking about when they'll arrive. The reality today is this: there really aren't any great industry-wide success stories in hand for thin batteries. And every year we hear of another one or two companies that fade away—and the trend continues.

We continue to see some increasing (if yet cautious) optimism for some of these markets. But at some point, and which we think will be soon to arrive, it's time to ask harder questions about which of these markets truly will pan out, and in a more near-term timeline, and which ones simply aren't going to be worth the effort to keep chasing.

1.1.1 Needed: Better Supply Chains

To succeed, the thin battery sector needs secure reliable end markets accounting for large volumes, but these do not seem to have materialized over a period of almost a decade. What n-tech Research is hearing from suppliers is perhaps an even more heightened sense of this problem. Yet, many of them continue to believe they are on the cusp of unlocking real end-market demand, and revenue streams, from powered smart cards to some versions of "smart labels."

We increasingly sense an increased tone of frustration and urgency in the “thin battery” sector that an adequate supply-chain remains absent in many cases. Some firms have aligned strategically with larger entities as a means to help scale up; Solicore and Donnelly are the prime example, while other suppliers have strategic backing that might be tapped (e.g. Flextronics invests in Imprint Energy). And yet we also hear tales of woe, concerns that a preliminary order of even a few million units sends partners scrambling


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back up the supply-chain ladder worried about procuring enough raw materials to start with.

As one industry source observed, in any emerging market, any weak link makes the entire industry weak. If smaller orders don't pass a stress test, where's the confidence to serve multiple markets with tens or hundreds of millions of units (or possibly vastly more)?

1.1.2 Paging Godot: Powered Cards

One end-user sector that seems less impacted by the problems mentioned above is the powered smart cards business, where thin batteries are widely used for commercial products. In fact, over the past year we are witnessing trends in OTP financial transactions that really do emphasize new functionality delivered by onboard power.

We also have some cautious optimism that these trends, currently playing out in Europe, will extend into larger markets in the U.S. and China. Card costs are approaching levels where issuers might bite, and some new card suppliers are entering the mix. Taking all that, we finally might have something here for thin batteries to hang their hats.

Aside from OTP cards for consumer financial transactions, which remain the main application for powered smart cards, other potential applications—secure identification (including biometrics), customer loyalty/gift/rewards cards, transportation/ticketing, even healthcare records continue to wait in the wings. They will greatly depend on whatever scale is built out to support OTP cards.

1.1.3 Sensors and Vertical Markets: Ready, Aim, Aim...

Thin batteries have long been touted as a means to power wireless sensors in a number of contexts. With the arrival of the Internet-of-Things (IoT) where sensor functionality powered by traditional batteries isn't feasible in terms of form, functionality, or cost, the expectations for volumes of thin batteries in this sector have increased.

One example we like to recall is in replacing batteries for remote LED lighting in a convention center superstructure: remote, set-it-and-forget-it functionality, and cost to replace (notably using union labor) are all problematic. In these contexts thin batteries can be complementary to and competitive with some energy harvesting capabilities; put together they could create a battery that never needs recharging or much replacement, though this arrangement add system complexity and cost.

Diving deeper beneath the IoT theme are identifiable vertical-market use cases for thin batteries. Many firms continue to point to specific areas for "smart" labels and packaging where tracking data over time (and needing a way to power that functionality) is critical: monitoring temperature-sensitive products through the supply-chain logistics, such as


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biopharmaceuticals or perishable goods. However, we note that similar applications were being talked about years ago and they have become commercialized only slowly.

Another area that seems to be picking up some steam is in medical devices—here, we believe, a very compelling case could be made for thin-film batteries. Cymbet's EnerChip batteries have been deemed 100% biocompatible and have an application case in an intraocular pressure sensor. Blue Spark's new wireless digital temperature thermometer, TempTraq, unveiled at the 2015 CES show, is now awaiting final FDA approval as a safe and effective medical device. Even bigger opportunities lie in medical implants and biocompatibility.

1.1.4 Consumer Electronics: The Way Forward for Thin Batteries?

We continue to see emerging over the past year the rise of potentially massive and lucrative market opportunities for thin-film and printed batteries, within consumer electronics and wearable electronics.

The broader strategy to keep making everything thinner and lighter would, on the face of it, seem favorable to thin-film batteries over standard liquid-electrolyte lithium-ion batteries burdened with size and form factor constraints. Building on some interesting developments in 2013, we're now hearing that solid-state thin-film batteries are indeed gaining traction in some high-volume applications, including some giant electronics firms.

And then there's the emerging category of wearable electronics, with overlaps into both the IoT and consumer electronics. More wearable electronics devices are coming out, and the giant electronics firms behind them are clearly interested in thin battery technologies (publicly and quietly). For now, the crop of "smart watches" are largely getting by with rigid or some curved form of battery, but there's talk of thin-film batteries possibly inside at least one of them. Very likely newer wearable devices such as bracelets will indeed need more flexible and form-friendly battery technology.

n-tech Research isn’t prepared to declare consumer electronics and wearables as the promised land for thin batteries just yet. But we cannot ignore several key points that thin battery makers need to take heart:

• Large electronics companies are very interested in thin batteries nowadays. They weren't just a couple of years ago.

• These firms have massive amounts of money, and supply chains, at their fingertips. Thin battery suppliers need both urgently.

• Some of them are starting to patent thin-film battery technology themselves, whether to outline a use case or possibly (additionally) to make such batteries themselves.

• Phones are a stable market—unlike many of the other applications considered targets by thin batteries, from labels to RFID.


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Besides the electronics companies themselves, battery firms might want to get to know a lot better their siblings across the electronics component aisle: semiconductor manufacturers.

Full integration with other components in a system is something we keep hearing as an important trend. It is conceivable that thin batteries might be incorporated onto or even within a microchip, in a package that subsequently ends up in a phone or other consumer device. Whether they license or create this battery capability is a strategic decision; in either case, battery makers should be ready to welcome or defend against it.

It’s also worth noting that key suppliers to those device makers also see familiar and possibly fertile ground in battery manufacturing—and a recognition that they also could help bring some scale to bear.

In summary, n-tech Research still believes that thin-film and printed batteries have some promise. But we're starting to wonder how many of the proposed usage cases are still worth chasing after, and whether it's time for firms—those who remain—to acknowledge where success is most likely to come from in the coming years.

1.2 Objective and Scope of this Report

This n-tech Research report examines the latest developments in thin-film and printed battery technologies, from materials and design to manufacturing, over the past year. We also look at the supplier landscape as it stands today and how it continues to change.

In this report we also evaluate all the various end markets, including eight-year forecasts for volumes and revenues. Some of them do seem to have some promise; others, we are increasingly skeptical of, at least as could support an entire industry of players.

This report, and the forecasts included, are intended to be international in scope, and we have not been geographically selective in the firms covered herein or interviewed to collect information. Where markets and opportunities are oriented to any particular region, we note this.

1.3 Methodology of this Report

The information and opinions here are mainly derived from primary sources, including our previous reports on thin batteries, as well as our more recently updated research into powered smart cards and power sources for the "Internet- of-Things." Where information has been used in an earlier report it has been reinvestigated, reanalyzed, and reconsidered in light of current developments and updated accordingly.

We also have relied upon our ongoing program of interviews with business development managers and technologists involved with thin battery technologies, related technology


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sectors, and end markets. We also have relied upon our own extensive research of secondary sources including: technical literature, relevant company web sites, trade journals, government resources, and various collateral items from trade shows and conferences.

1.4 Plan of this Report

Chapter Two reviews the latest developments and progress in thin-film and printed battery technologies over the past year, from materials choices to manufacturing processes.

In Chapter Three we present what we see as the lay of the land awaiting thin batteries in consumer electronics, including current and future wearable electronics devices, including eight-year forecasts.

In Chapter Four we discuss the sensor market and various related applications where thin batteries can gain traction, including eight-year forecasts for batteries in this market.

Chapter Five looks at opportunities for thin batteries in powered smart cards and their various uses, from consumer financial transactions to biometrics. Eight-year forecasts are included.

In Chapter Six we examine the markets for thin batteries in various smart packaging contexts, from temperature loggers to medical and other disposables. Again, this includes eight-year forecasts.

Chapter Seven wraps up several ancillary applications as an "other" catch-call category: medical implants, computer memory, etc. Eight-year forecasts are included.

In Chapter Eight we summarize all our forecasts for thin batteries, by application and by battery chemistry.