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The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide 1
The Three TsunamisRich Antcliff
Chief TechnologistNASA Langley Research Center
May 7, 2007 AD
The future ain’t what it used to be… Yogi Berra
The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide 2
Waves crashing in the distance . . .
Technological ExponentialsTechnological Exponentials
Global DemographicsGlobal Demographics
Climate ChangeClimate Change
The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide 3
Technological Exponentials
The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide 4
Technological Exponentials
Kurtzweil, 2005
The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide 5
Technological Exponentials
Kurtzweil, 2005
The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide 6
Technological Exponentials
Kurtzweil, 2005
The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide 7
Technological Exponentials
Kurtzweil, 2005
The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide 8
Technological Exponentials
Kurtzweil, 2005
The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide 9
Technological Exponentials
Nanobearings:
The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide 10
Technological Exponentials
Gathering data from multiple studies, Javier F. Medina, Michael D. Mauk, and their colleagues at the University of Texas Medical School devised a detailed bottom-up simulation of the cerebellum.
Their simulation includes over 10,000 simulated neurons and 300,000 synapses, and includes all of the principal types of cerebellum cells.
The Cerebellum
The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide 11
Technological Exponentials
Lily pads can grow fast. Imagine that you discover a variety of lily pads that can double in number every day. It takes 10 days for them grow to cover a pond halfway.
How many days will it take to completely cover the pond?
The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide 12
Waves crashing in the nearby. . .
Technological ExponentialsTechnological Exponentials
Global DemographicsGlobal Demographics
Climate ChangeClimate Change
The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide 13
Global Demographics
The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide 14
Global Demographics
28.5%
Rest of World 45.4%
4.0%
Source: World Bank 2005
11.1%
6.6%
shares aggregate GDP
The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide 15
Global Demographics
Germany
20000
50000
25000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
US
China
India
Japan
GDP ’03US$bn
Source: Goldman Sachs, Report 99
The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide 16
Global Demographics
US Census Bureau International Database
The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide 17
Global Demographics
The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide 18
Global Demographics
The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide 19
Global Demographics
• Engineering Graduates:• United States - 70,000• All of Europe - 100,000• India - 450,000• China - 700,000
2005 data
“..but the quality of the engineers is poor” - SO WHAT!
http://inhome.rediff.com/money/2006/jun/09bspec.htm
The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide 20
Global Demographics
Global Views 2006 - The Chicago Council on Global Affairs
The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide 21
Global Demographics
Those who ignore demographics will do so at their own peril - author unknown
The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide 22
Waves crashing at home . .
Technological ExponentialsTechnological Exponentials
Global DemographicsGlobal Demographics
Climate ChangeClimate Change
The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide 23
Climate Change
The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide 24
Climate Change
The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide 25
Climate Change
CO2
The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide 26
Climate Change
Boulder Glacier, Washington State
The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide 27
Climate Change
Berrien Moore
The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide 28
Climate Change
Berrien Moore
The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide 29
Climate Change
Global Views 2006 - The Chicago Council on Global Affairs
The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide 30
The Three Tsunamis
Technological ExponentialsTechnological Exponentials• What does it mean to be human?• What will be “robotic”?• Who will do research?
Global DemographicsGlobal Demographics• Where is the research done?• Who owns the IP?• What is the organization?
Climate ChangeClimate Change• What will be the focus of our research?• What energy will we use?• How will we live?
The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide 31
or
The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide 32
Why?
Technological exponentialsTechnological exponentials
Global DemographicsGlobal Demographics
Climate ChangeClimate Change
What will the R&D “Lab” look like in 2025?
What will R&D look like in 2025?
Should we think about this now?
Would we make different decision now, if we knew?
The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide 33
What?
Understand the future context Investigation and integration of the future studies
relevant to R&D Assessing the impact on R&D ‘Labs”
What is the current progress? What is the delta? Workshop, survey, interview?
Educate Publication Member centered learning
The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide 34
Who?
Co-chairs: Rich Antcliff (NASA), Erik Whalen-Pedersen (Kraft)
Others Mike Schwenk (PNNL), Johann Venter (Champion
Tech), Raju Borwankar (Kraft), Robert Williams (Boeing), Feng Niu (Motorola), Silvia Urbe-Saucedo (Kellogg), Charlene Miraglia (Praxair), Michelle Kane (Praxair), Martha Collins (Air Products), Players to be named later (You!)
Center for Innovative Management Studies
![Physical modeling of tsunamis generated by three ......[2] Tsunamis are water waves generated by impulsive disturbances such as submarine earthquakes and landslides, volcanic eruptions](https://img.pdfslide.net/doc/110x75/605705a83642e512411472aa/physical-modeling-of-tsunamis-generated-by-three-2-tsunamis-are-water.jpg)
