Topic 9 fsp descriptive statistics

Descriptive Statistics

Policy Perceptions on Food Security:Abuse of Averages

Source: Suryanarayana (2011) in India Development Report 2011

3

11th Five Year Plan on Food Security

• Sustained solution to morbidity• All the more so,

Stagnant incomes of the poorPerverse changes in consumption patterns –

decline in cereal shareTrend reduction in average cereal consumption

Policy Perceptions on Food Security

4


Trend reduction in calorie intake – 8% in rural India - 3% in urban India between 1983 and 2004-05

Average calorie intake fall increasingly short of official poverty line norms: 2400 kcals rural India 2100 kcals urban India


5

Incidence of Poverty (million): 1983-2004

19831993

2004

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

300.00

251.96

244.03

220.92

70.9476.34

80.80

Rural UrbanPolicy Perceptions on Food Security

6

Incidence of Calorie Deficiency (%)Norms: 2400 Kcal (Rural); 2100 Kcal (Urban)

1983 1987/88 1993/94 1999/00 2004/050

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

66.1 65.9

71.174.2

79.8

60.557.1 58.1 58.2

63.964.8 63.967.8

70.1

75.8

RuralUrbanAll India


7


Consequences - Nutritional outcome parameters like low birth weights of newborn babies, anthropometric measures


8

Review

• Estimates of consumption patternsAverages at current prices conceal rather than

reveal dynamics of change.Reflect changes in relative prices and not real

changes in consumption patterns.Current price estimates exaggerate the extent of

changes.


9

Review

Cereal share, of course, has declined though not to the extent as revealed by current price estimates.

Per capita cereal expenditure increased for the bottom three decile groups but not quantities – dynamics of agricultural development.

Calorie intake increased for the bottom decile groups decreased for the top ones: convergence at a lower level.


10

0

5

10

15

20

25

301

96

0-6

1

62

-63

64

-65

66

-67

68

-69

70

-71

72

-73

74

-75

76

-77

78

-79

80

-81

19

83

84

-85

86

-87

88

-89

90

-91

93

-94

Rs

at

19

60

-61

pri

ce

s

Year

Monthly Per-Capita Consumer Expenditure by the Poorest Decile Groups and Total Population: All-India Rural

Poorest Decile Group (PDG) 2nd PDG 3rd PDG 4th PDG 5th PDG Total Rural


11

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Poorest DG2nd PDG

3rd PDG4th PDG

5th PDGTotal Rural

Kg pe

r mon

th

Decile Group

Per Capita Cereal Consumption: All India Rural

1954-55 1960-61 1977-78 1983 1993-94 1999-00 2004-05


12

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1954-551960-61

1977-781983

1993-94

Sh

are

(per

cen

t)

Year

Cereal Consumption Composition of the Poorest Decile Group: All-India Rural

Rice Wheat Coarse cereals


13

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1954-551960-61

1977-781983

1993-94

Sh

are

(per

cen

t)

Year

Cereal Consumption Composition of Total Population: All-India Rural

Rice Wheat Coarse cereals


14

Consequences

• Incidence of calorie deficiency increased by conventional norms but not so by convergence norms.


What is the evidence by disaggregate population groups?

16

0

5

10

15

20

25

1972/73 1983 1993/94 1999/2000 2004/05

kg s

per

mon

th

Year

Per Capita Cereal Consumption by Decile Groups:All India Rural

Decile Group I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X


17

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1972/73 1983 1993/94 1999/2000 2004/05

kgs

per m

onth

Year

Per Capita Cereal Consumption by Decile Groups: All India Urban

Decile Group I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X


18

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

1972/73 1983 1993/94 1999/00 2004/05

kcal

s per

diem

Year

Per Capita Calorie Intake by Decile Groups: All India Rural

Decile Group I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X Norm


19

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1972/73 1983 1993/94 1999/00 2004/05

kcal

s per

diem

Year

Per Capita Calorie Intake by Decile Group: All India Urban

Decile Group I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X Norm


20

Incidence of Malnutrition: StatesA

ndhr

a Pr

ades

h

Ass

am

Bih

arC

hatti

shga

rh

Guj

arat

Har

yana

Jhar

khan

dK

arna

taka

Ker

ala

Mah

aras

htra

Mad

hya

Prad

esh

Oris

sa

Punj

abR

ajas

than

Tam

il N

adu

Utta

ranc

hal

Utta

r Pra

desh

Wes

t Ben

gal

Indi

a0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

51.8

47.3

Proportion (%) of Underweight Children: Major States

1992-931998-992005-06

Pro

por

tion

(%

)


Growth Rate

A Story of Computations

22

Assess Growth performance pre- and post-reform Source: Government of India (2003): Economic Survey 2002-2003, p. S – 4.

Year Annual Growth Rate (%)in Per Capita Net National Product (at 1993/94 prices)

1985-86 2.1

1986-87 1.8

1987-88 1.2

1988-89 8.3

1989-90 4.6

1990-91 3.3

1991-92 -1.5

1992-93 3.1

1993-94 3.4

1994-95 4.9

1995-96 5.2

1996-97 6.1

1997-98 2.6

Growth Rate

23

SECTORS 1999-2000 2000-2001 2001-2002 2002-2003* 2003-04* 2004-05* 2005-06 * 2006-07* 2007-08* 2008-09+

1.1 Agriculture 3455054 3287801 3480299 3580625 3976855 3715719 4047401 4515299 4985079 3929665

1.2 Forestry 171997 159797 162504 155770 151688 134022 133559 144553 143940 136430

1.3 Fishing 82425 78127 81497 78708 81104 71796 80472 79440 78720 69081

1.Agriculture & Allied Activities 3709476 3525725 3724300 3815103 4209647 3921537 4261433 4739292 5207738 4135176

2.Mining & Quarrying 155625 165329 173300 184801 202241 215049 222812 236126 256201 219964

Primary Sector 3865101 3691054 3897600 3999904 4411888 4136586 4484245 4975418 5463939 4355140

3.1 Registered 3123876 2487223 2321190 2625334 3000532 3323943 3598169 3997157 4282590 4276802

3.2 Un registered 1010431 1087980 1055441 1127456 1186591 1272930 1366229 1514549 1638527 1611735

3.Manufacturing Total 4134307 3575203 3376631 3752790 4187123 4596872 4964398 5511706 5921116 5888538

4.Electricity,gas and and water supply 382856 447933 357175 430124 445522 523478 561244 543319 629107 645785

5.Construction 1291990 1134730 1262882 1262050 1374345 1398070 1486430 2083731 2599522 3328045

Secondary Sector 5809152 5157866 4996688 5444965 6006990 6518421 7012072 8138755 9149745 9862367

Sectorwise GDP: Maharashtra (at 1999-2000 prices)

Growth Rate

24

2000-2001

2001-2002

2002-2003*

2003-04*

2004-05*

2005-06 *

2006-07*

2007-08*

2008-09+ CAGR

1.1 Agriculture (4.84) 5.85 2.88 11.07 (6.57) 8.93 11.56 10.40 (21.17) 1.44 1.2 Forestry (7.09) 1.69 (4.14) (2.62) (11.65) (0.35) 8.23 (0.42) (5.22) (2.54)1.3 Fishing (5.21) 4.31 (3.42) 3.04 (11.48) 12.09 (1.28) (0.91) (12.24) (1.94)1.Agriculture & Allied Activities (4.95) 5.63 2.44 10.34 (6.84) 8.67 11.21 9.88 (20.60) 1.21 2.Mining & Quarrying 6.24 4.82 6.64 9.44 6.33 3.61 5.98 8.50 (14.14) 3.92

Primary Sector (4.50) 5.60 2.62 10.30 (6.24) 8.40 10.95 9.82 (20.29) 1.34 3.1 Registered (20.38) (6.68) 13.10 14.29 10.78 8.25 11.09 7.14 (0.14) 3.55 3.2 Un registered 7.67 (2.99) 6.82 5.24 7.28 7.33 10.86 8.19 (1.64) 5.33 3.Manufacturing Total (13.52) (5.55) 11.14 11.57 9.79 8.00 11.02 7.43 (0.55) 4.01 4.Electricity,gas and and water supply 17.00 (20.26) 20.42 3.58 17.50 7.21 (3.19) 15.79 2.65 5.98 5.Construction (12.17) 11.29 (0.07) 8.90 1.73 6.32 40.18 24.75 28.03 11.09

Secondary Sector (11.21) (3.12) 8.97 10.32 8.51 7.57 16.07 12.42 7.79 6.06 Industry Sector (10.76) (2.88) 8.89 10.29 8.44 7.45 15.76 12.31 7.19 6.01

Annual Growth rates

Growth Rate

25

Regression based Trend growth ratesSECTORS Trend growth

1.1 Agriculture 3.501.2 Forestry -2.391.3 Fishing -1.041.Agriculture & Allied Activities 3.19

2.Mining & Quarrying 5.19Primary Sector 3.28

3.1 Registered 6.503.2 Un registered 5.94

3.Manufacturing Total 6.314.Electricity,gas and water supply 6.345.Construction 11.07

Secondary Sector 7.58Industry Sector 7.51

Growth Rate

Technology

Topic 9 fsp descriptive statistics