The Next 10 YearsA Choice of Visions

What Does It Look Like?

Why Is It Important?Presented by Joel A. Barker, futurist, author, filmmaker

Vision is…

Dreams in

action!

Vision’s Importance

Clarifies purpose Gives direction Empowers beyond assets

Five Scholars

Fred Polak--Dutch Benjamin Singer--Canadian Viktor Frankl--Austrian Martin Seligman--American James Collins--Californian

Fred Polak

The Image of the Future WWII triggered his scholarship Why did the Nazis do so well?

Polak

Decided it was their image of their future Theory: vision precedes great

performance

Polak

Studied Western civilization to see if it were true

Found many examples Discovered vision is about pulling,

not pushing

Polak’s Grid

Characteristics Influence Essence

Optimism

Pessimism

Polak’s Grid

Characteristics Influence Essence

Optimism Most Powerful

Pessimism

Polak’s Grid

Characteristics Influence Essence

Optimism

Pessimism Least Powerful

Polak’s Conclusions

Visionary nations outperform their assets

“Perhaps a civilization’s mightiest leveris its own image of its future.”

Vision for USA

Can you name 10 goals that the United States wants to achieve by 2025?

Viktor Frankl

Man’s Search for Meaning Austrian Jew Psychiatrist Spent WWII in concentration camps

Frankl

Observed it was impossible to predict who would survive by standard measures: youth strength health brains

Frankl

None of those assets turned out to be useful measures over the long term.

Most useful measure: There was something important yet undone waiting in their future.

Frankl

All of those who made it throughhad something significant yet to do.

They outperformed their assets

Benjamin Singer

Canadian educational psychologist

“The Future Focused Role Image.”

Vision’s influence on children

Singer

Looked at school performance grades leadership teacher recommendations

Singer

Interviewed two ends of spectrum Asked students to describe their future Found startling correlation

Singer

Top students had strong/long visions Bottom students had no vision

Specifics of successful students

Long time horizons

Multiple alternatives

A belief that their own behaviormade a big difference in howtheir future turned out

Specifics of nonsuccessful

Very short time horizons

No idea of what they were going to be

Believed their lives were inthe hands of fate

Singer

Could not find these two extremes by measuring: IQ family structure economic structure race gender culture

Singer conclusion

Children with vision outperformed their assets

Successful students had one thing in common: a profound belief in their future and their ability in their own efforts to shape it!

James Collins

Built to last with Jerry Porras Study of corporations with and without vision

Good to Great A study of mediocre corporation that became

great corporations

The Research

Studied Parallel companies same industry same resources same starting point One was visionary, one was not

The difference

Extraordinary Investing $1.00 in 1926 in 3 categories

general stock market nonvisionary company visionary company

Results of investment in 1990

General Market--$415 Nonvisionary company--$955

The Payoff

Visionary Company--$6356 15X the market 6X its competitor

Definitely outperformed their assets

Collins Conclusion

Enormous advantage to have institutional vision!

Accessible to all

Key Influencers of Vision

Family & friends

Leaders

the media

Collective Observations

Vision works at all levels of human endeavor

Vision helps people and collectivesoutperform their assets

Positive vision ennobles the human spirit

Which is most influential?

Family & Friends, Leaders, Media: in Europe? in Asia? in South America? in North America?

Media’s influence

What kind of messages do the media usually convey to us?

Negative Examples

Religious wars Terrorism Loss of medical care Energy costs Loss of biodiversity Failing infrastructure

Global competition Bankruptcy Loss of jobs to China Global climate

change Devaluation of the

dollar

The Negative Vision Question

If the future is only going to get worse,then what is the best day of your life?

Mass Media influence

Profoundly negative “Front page” negative Inaccurate description of the real world:

What’s the likelihood of you being killed by terrorists in the next five years compared to death in an auto accident?

The Impact of Negative Information

Destroys the power of positive vision

Shapes our “vision” filters to only see the bad

Five Regions of the Future

A New Way to Look at the Evolution of Tomorrow’s

Technology

Introduction

We have more solutions than problems New way of looking at technology TechnEcologies Choice between technologies

Geography of Technology

Super Tech Limits Tech Local Tech Nature Tech Human Tech

Five Regions

Characterizing a Technology

Attitude toward material wealth? View of science and technology? View its relationship with nature? View of work and leisure?

Super Tech

Super Tech

1. Superabundance is just around the corner.2. Science and technology, given enough

time and money, can solve all problems.3. It is time for human beings to move

beyond mother nature with our own devices.

4. Given the choice, human beings will always choose leisure over work.

Fusion Power

Fission

Oil and Natural Gas

Methane Gas Hydrate

Orbital solar

Sony Robot

Robotic Arm

Hypersonic Planes

Private Orbiters

Very Fast Boats

Deep Sea Hawk

Eye Implant

Weather Control

Fish Farming

L5 Space Colonies

Terraforming Mars

                                                

                        

Three Shades of Green

A Different Way

To Look at Sustainability

Limits Tech

Limits Tech

1. We must learn to live within the limits of our planet

2. Science and technology, as they have been used in the past century, are Faustian contracts, bringing short term advantages but long term disaster.

3. Mother nature knows best.4. Human beings are going to have to work

very hard if they want to survive.

The Good News

"EEStor -- A Texas company

technology is a tenth the weight and volume of lead-acid batteries, and significantly smaller than the most advanced chemical batteries today.

300 miles before recharge

Negawatts

LEDs

Aerogel

Bendable concrete

PreFab Home

Metal foam stuff

Hybrids

Baby Benz

Air Powered Car

Fuel Cell Motorcycle

250 mph train

12,000 mpg

LmT Spin Launcher

                                            

                            

Spin Me Up, Scotty

Tony Randazzo for AA Reps

Telecommute

Limits Book

$100 computer

Programmable Clothing

Recycling

Rubber Sidewalks

Plastic bridge

Terra Preta

Amazonian “Slash and Char”

Local Tech

Local Tech

1. There is a sufficient amount of resources in the world for everybody.

2. Science and technology are OK as long as they are properly scaled.

3. Humans are the shepherds of nature.

4. Humans needs to work to become fully human.

Wind Power

Sea Snakes

Bobbing Buoy Generators

Solar

Decentralized Power

Solar Power Tower

Geothermal

Underground Homes

Straw Bale Homes

Solar Light Bulb

Local Tech Refrigerator

Fog Nets

Bicycles

TWIKE

Segways

Smooth Rollers

Airships

                                                          

                                                                                                                  

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ST Flying Hotel

                                             

                           Peter

Bollinger

                                              

                          John

MacNeill

High Atmosphere Dirigible

                               

 

  An artist's concept of a Lockheed Martin

Nature Tech

Nature Tech

1. All human needs can be filled using Nature’s systems.

2. Mother Nature has already solved all of our problems. Science’s job is to find her answers and create compatible technologies using those solutions.

3. Our relationship with nature is that of a co-equal partner.

4. Our work is to learn to live well with Nature.

Ethanol

Hydrogen producing bacteria

Bio Battery

Bacterial Electricity

Exothermic plants

Bioluminescence

Vertigro

Colored Cotton

Spider Silk

Kenaf

Natural Plastics

Nature’s Designs

Medicines

Maggots

Biofilms

Gecko Feet Glue

Butterfly LEDs

Tree Talk

Computing

NT Tree House

                                            

                            

Spin Me Up, Scotty

Tony Randazzo for AA Reps

                                             

                           Graham

Murdoch

Call to action

Human Tech

Human Tech

1. The real needs of humans are not material needs.

2. Science is only now learning how to measure human technology.

3. God or Mother Nature or evolution, depending on your point of view, has endowed us with extraordinary capabilities.

4. Our true work is to know ourselves.

Bilateral Symmetry

Pheromones

Chronobiology

Stem Cells

Genome

Healing with your head

Health

Placebos

Teamwork

Intelligence

Manufacturing

Wisdom of Crowds

James Surowiecki large groups of people are smarter than an

elite few, no matter how brilliant—better at solving problems, fostering innovation, coming to wise decisions, even predicting the future.

Blink

Malcolm Gladwell rapid cognition, about the kind of thinking

that happens in a blink of an eye Power of thin slicing Knowing what to look for

Universal Technologies

Super conducting wire

UT Nanotube Fabric

Aluminum Glass Armor

UT Computer

Cell phones

E Book

3-D Lithography

TDP/Thermal Conversion

Bio Technology

Dreams, Hope, and Visionby Debbe Kennedy

Dreams give us hope.Hope ignites Passion.Passion leads us to enVision success.Visions of success open our minds to recognize possibilities

Far-reaching Possibilities help us enlist Support from others.

Support from others keeps us focusedand committed.

Focus and commitment foster action.

Action leads to Progress.Progress leads to Achievement. Achievement inspires Dreams.Dreams give us hope.