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Predictably IrrationalImproving Decision Making

ProcessesJune 2009

MIT Enterprise Forum of Israel in cooperation with the Leon Recanati

Graduate School of Business AdministrationTel Aviv University

http://www.mit-forum.org.il/Sponsors/sponsor.aspx?id=87



IN COOPERATION WITH THE LEON RECANATI GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION, TEL AVIV UNIVERSITY

Nobel Prize in Economics2008 The prize goes to: PAUL KRUGMAN for his analysis of trade patterns and location of economic activity. 2007 The prize was awarded jointly to: LEONID HURWICZ, ERIC S. MASKIN & ROGER B. MYERSON for having laid the foundations of mechanism design theory. 2006 The prize goes to: EDMUND S. PHELPS for his analysis of intertemporal tradeoffs in macroeconomic policy.

2005 The prize was awarded jointly to: ROBERT J. AUMANN and THOMAS C. SCHELLING for having enhanced our understanding of

conflict and cooperation through game-theory analysis.

2004 The prize was awarded jointly to: FINN E. KYDLAND and EDWARD C. PRESCOTT for their contributions to dynamic macroeconomics: the time consistency of economic policy

and the driving forces behind business cycles 2003 The prize was shared between: ROBERT F. ENGLE for methods of analyzing economic time series with time-varying volatility (ARCH) and CLIVE W. J. GRANGER , for methods of analyzing economic time series with common trends (cointegration)

2002 The prize was shared between: DANIEL KAHNEMAN for having integrated insights from psychological research into

economic science, especially concerning human judgment and decision-making under uncertainty


http://almaz.com/nobel/2008-prizes.html

http://almaz.com/nobel/economics/2008a.html



http://almaz.com/nobel/economics/2007b.html

http://almaz.com/nobel/economics/2007c.html















Ig Noble Prizes

2008 Economics: Geoffrey Miller, Joshua Tyber, and Brent Jordan, for discovering that exotic dancers earn more when at peak fertility

2007 Economics: Kuo Cheng Hsieh, for patenting a device to catch bank robbers by ensnaring them in a net

2005 Economics - Presented to Gauri Nanda of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, for inventing Clocky, an alarm clock that runs away and hides, repeatedly, thus ensuring that people get out of bed, and thus theoretically adding many productive hours to the workday


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exotic_dancer

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fertility


The MIT Enterprise Forum – A Global Player

Dov Moran (M-Systems), Dr. Eli Harari (SanDisk), Seth

Sternberg (Meebo) Zvi Yemini (ZAG), Orni Petrushka (Chromatis), Avigdor Willenz

(Galileo)Moshe Lichtman (Microsoft), Shai Agassi (SAP), Yaron Galai

(Quigo)Martin Gerstel (ALZA), Yehuda Bronicki (Ormat), Ken Levy

(KLA) Prof. Ed Roberts (MIT-Sloan), Prof. Ed Roberts (MIT-Sloan) Dalia Prashker (New Dimension), Monica Eisinger (Mind CTI)


Dr. Jack Goldman (Xerox PARC)Eli Hurwitz (TEVA)

Stef Wertheimer (Iscar)Zohar Zisapel (RAD)

Dr. Felix Zandman (Vishay)Dr. Dan Maydan (Applied Materials)

Dr. Shimon Eckhouse (Syneron)Dr. Ed Mlavsky (Gemini)Yanki Margalit (Aladdin)

Dr. Yossi Vardi (ICQ)


במרץ30יום שני,

זורעים את זרעי ההצלחהזורעים את זרעי ההצלחה 2009:יום היזםיום היזםDay of the Entrepreneur 2009: Seeding for SuccessSeeding for Success

Build Sustainable AdvantagesBuild Sustainable AdvantagesCreate New Revenue StreamsCreate New Revenue Streams

Leverage Market OpportunitiesLeverage Market OpportunitiesLearn about Entrepreneurship in the Internet Era Learn about Entrepreneurship in the Internet Era

Mingle with Leading Entrepreneurs and ManagersMingle with Leading Entrepreneurs and Managers


Consulting with the MIT Forum:Sprinting Up the Learning Curve


"In Mid 2004 OmniVee participated in a MIT Forum brainstorming session… with a well balanced panel with well-known and respected professionals, including Dr. Shlomo Kalish, Founding Partner of Jerusalem Global Ventures, and Yoav Avtalion, Co-founder of NICE.

“The meeting itself was short and focused. We ended up having our downside very explicitly put, and benefited from a few key suggestions for the best course of action.

“About half a year later, I can state a number of our main strong points today are clearly the result of things said in the MIT Forum meeting.

We saw it as a 'step-forward' meeting; however its full impact became apparent only with the passage of time."

Ben Kidron, Founder and CEO, OmniVee (sold to DVTel 12 months after consulting with

MIT EF)


" ShellCase used the MIT Forum to present and analyze a major strategic

business dilemma. The experts panel, which included senior leaders in the semiconductor industry like Ken Levy and Avigdor Willenz, was

capable of grasping the complexity of our business nature and recommending a specific direction the company should take.

Furthermore, a few comments by the very experienced audience, shed light on important aspects of our operation, and supported the decision

making process".

Shlomo Oren, President and CEO, ShellCase


“We primarily sought ‘exposure’ for our company and its products. The

Forum's mailing list included over 2,000 managers and investors in high technology. Based on the Forum's program flyer distributed in advance of our company presentation, we were approached by firms interested in cooperating with us, and in investing in PhoNet. Relationships with the

Forum's panel of experts that reviewed our firm helped us secure an agreement with a well-known distributor in our field”.

Yaron Baratz, CEO, PhoNet Communications repeat entrepreneur, Septier, M2M and more


“ There is no doubt that without the help of the Forum in our early stages

of development, we would have encountered serious problems in a number of areas at a time when the damage might have been

irreversible”.

Ofer Shoshan, Managing Director, CoreTech Founder and President, Qlusters

Founder, Peerhunters, OneHourTranslation


“The Forum put us on the right track in terms of developing a realistic business plan, with proper benchmarks and milestones, thereby improving decision making at MIND. The Forum afforded us the opportunity of developing on-going relationships with experts in fields related to our business. The Forum gave us insight into the intricacies of seeking venture capital, and allowed us to avoid the pitfalls of hindsight by learning ‘on the job’ in the process of negotiations.”

Monica Eisinger, Founder & CEO, Mind-CTI (NASDAQ: MNDO)

(Mind-CTI went public 4 years after consulting with the MIT EF)


Overview Consulting1-1 Consulting meetings


Entrepreneurs in High Technology

Making the Impossible Possible (Ray Stata, Analog Devices)


SUCCESS OF TECHNOLOGY-BASED FIRMS - Ed Roberts, MIT(5-7 years post-founding)

As measured by growth & profitability

(%)

Entrepreneurs’

self-assessments (%)

High Performers 15

Succeeding 15

Merely Surviving 54

Failures 16


SUCCESS OF TECHNOLOGY-BASED FIRMS(5-7 years post-founding)

As measured by growth & profitability

(%)

Entrepreneurs’

self-assessments (%)

High Performers 15 85

Succeeding 15

Merely Surviving 54 15

Failures 16


Predictably Irrational – Improving Decision Making Processes

Dan Ariely, Professor of Behavioral Economics, Duke, MIT

Yossi Matias, Managing Director, Google Israel R&D Center

Elah Alkalay, Vice President of Business Development, IBI Brokerage & Investments

Ron Shachar, Professor of Marketing and Economics, Recanati, Tel Aviv University

Dov Moran, Founder, CEO & Chairman, MODU Izhar Shay, General Partner, Canaan Partners



Predictably Irrational – Improving Decision Making

Processes

• Everyday Irrational Behavior: From Small Mistakes to Market Failures

• Even Israelis Can be Predictable - Examples from the Local Market

• Identity Marketing

• On the Predictability of Search Trends

• Birth of a Cellular Phone – What Couldn’t Go Wrong and Did?


