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January © 2016
From Technologies to Markets
CAR-ELE JAPAN
What does the future of
automotive market hold?
2
TABLE OF CONTENTS
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Automotive World
Automotive and 21st century challenges 3
A Path Toward CO2 emission reduction 10
• LEDs in Automotive 13
• Thermo-Electric Material in Automotive 15
Market and Trends in Electric and Hybrid Electric Vehicles (EV/HEV) 20
• EV/HEV Market Status 22
• Technology Trends in EV/HEV 30
• How SiC and GaN gain momentum in EV/HEV? 35
Sensors for Autonomous Vehicles: Status and Trends 48
© 2015
Automotive and 21st
century challenges
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Automotive World
4
2B people consuming
internationally-traded goods
2B mobile phones sold each year
1B cars in use
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Automotive World
GLOBAL MARKET ROADMAP
World demographics & wealth growth
“Emerging” economies
“Newly industrialized” economies
“Developed” economies
The world is getting richer, even though 2/3 of Earth’s
population can’t access consumer goods
<$1 $5 $50 $100+ <$1 $5 $50 $100+
Source Hans Rosling Gap Minder
Consumer
societies
X1.752B/7B
people
3.5B/8B
people
GDP/day
/person
2010 2030
Yole Développement © August 2015
CAGR 2.8%
1 Square =1B people
5
DIFFERENT TYPES OF VEHICLES AND THEIR MARKET
Motorization rate worldwide in 2013
Motorization rate is very different depending on countries. Where it is low, there is a huge opportunity for automotive market
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Automotive World
Amount of vehicles per 1,000 inhabitants
649
167
NAFTA
C&S America
EU 28/EFTA
565
Africa
43
Asia (without
Japan and South
Korea)/Oceania/
Middle East
73
722
91
Japan and South
Korea
544
308
Russia/Other
Europe
253
Worldwide average: 174 vehicles/1,000 inhabitants
Source: OICA
6
DIFFERENT TYPES OF VEHICLES AND THEIR MARKET
Passenger cars: a market still dynamic worldwide
• With 57% of worldpopulation thatcannot imaginetheir life without acar, and consideringthe low rate ofmotorization indevelopingcountries such asIndia or China,passenger carsmarket should keepon increasing in thecoming years
• Growth istempered by thehigh rate ofmotorization in“developed”countries
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Automotive World
2013 2014 2015 2020
Sales of passenger cars
worldwide
85 millions 88 millions 90 millions 102 millions
…
7
WORLDWIDE CAR MARKET
Passengers and Light commercial vehicles
85.6 million cars was produced worldwide in 2014
• The worldwide car marketfeatured a growth in 2014:+2.8% compared to 2013.
• There are large differences inthe market evolution indifferent regions.
• With its small amount ofcars per inhabitant and itsperspectives of evolution,China is pulling the market(21.8 million vehiclesproduced in 2014).
• The total number of carsproduced in 2014 represents85.6 million units.
• There is a large potential forcar electrification.
85.6
million
cars
Worldwide car production in 2014: Split per region.
Passengers and Light commercial vehicles only
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Automotive World
8
MAJOR TRENDS TRANSFORMING THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY
Two distinctive paths for autonomous vehicles
2020 - 2022 should see the
first implementations
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Automotive World
1900 1980 2012 2022 2028 2040
Technology x Market Penetration
The
Automobile’s
Evolution
12 years6 years10 years32 years80 years
Yole Développement
© September 2015
Low-expectation
“cars” fulfilling a
new plane of
consumption needs
Disruption?
Electronics
invade cars
The electric car
maturesIndustrialization
phase
New use case
Faraday
Future
9
MAJOR TRENDS TRANSFORMING THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Automotive World
Environment / Energy Efficiency
SafetyShared
Mobility
Digital / Connectivity
Business
ModelsNew Players
In a not so distant future (10-20
years), one can envision a world
where a shared automated vehicle
could be summoned by a click on a
smartphone!
© 2015
A Path Toward CO2 emission reduction
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Automotive World
11
CO2 EMISSION REDUCTION DRIVEN BY REGULATION
Reasons for developing electrified vehicles
The strengthening CO2
regulation is the key driver for the electrification of vehicles.
There are three mainreasons that push theelectrified vehicles marketgrowth:
• Strengthening of CO2regulation
• Fuel price instabilityand dependence ongeopolitical issues
• Incentives for EV/HEVvehicles and
advantages for EV/HEVvehicles
• Bus line driving allowance
• Free parking places in city centers
• Dedicated parking places
• Etc.
barriers for thermal(polluting) vehicles.
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Automotive World
12
CO2 EMISSION REDUCTION DRIVEN BY REGULATION
Positioning of car fleet regarding the 2015/2020 EU CO2 emissions targets
Most car manufacturers have to electrify at least some of the car models of their fleet to achieve the EU emission reduction targets. *The circle size
corresponds to the
number of vehicle
registrations per year
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Automotive World
14
LEDS: IMPACT ON ENERGY CONSUMPTION
• Magneti Marelli indicates that lightingsystems based on Xenon technology forthe low beam/high beam functions andLEDs for all the other front and rearlighting functions, could save up to 80 Wattsand 2 grams of CO2 emissions perkilometer. In 2014, the EuropeanCommission included the company’s “E-Light” LED low beam module amongapproved “Eco-innovations” granting a 1gCO2 /km per vehicle emission credit tocarmakers adopting the system [1].
• Valeo estimate that a passenger using LEDfor all functions would save 3g CO2 /km.
• The full LED headlamp of the 2014 Peugeot308 result in a 50% reduction of CO2
emission compared to halogen headlamps.
• In term of fuel consumption, Mazdaestimates that LED Headlamps in itsDemio car result is fuel consumptionimprovement of 1.9%.
Efficient lighting systems can help reducing vehicles fuel consumption and emissions.
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Automotive World
[1] As from 2012, if the average CO2 emissions of a carmaker’s fleet exceeds the limit value set by the legislator, the carmaker will be required to pay a fine for the excess
emissions of each registered vehicle. This fine amounts to € 5 for the first g/km over the limit, € 15 for the second g/km over the limit, € 25 for the third g/km over the
limit, up to € 95 for all subsequent g/km over the limit. Starting in 2019, the fine will be increased to € 95 as from the first gram over the limit. But all carmakers can
upon request, benefit from a credit of up to a maximum of 7 g/ CO2 if they adopt approved and certified Eco-Innovations on each vehicle.
Evolution of power consumption for headlamp systems (source: Koito)
Halogen HID Xenon Led
Low Beam 55W x 2 35W x 2 16W x 2
High Beam 60W x 2 35W x 2 + 60W x 2 16W x 2 + 16W x2
Headlamp Power consumption for Mazda’s Demio (source: company)
16
AUTOMOTIVE THERMOELECTRIC GENERATOR (ATEG)
An automotive thermoelectric generator (ATEG) is a device that converts some of the waste heat of an internal combustion engine in car into electricity using the Seebeck effect.
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Automotive World
• Different approaches toreduce fuelconsumption are underdevelopment, includingthermoelectricgenerators.
• AutomotiveThermoelectricGenerator (ATEG)converts directly theheat energy that escapesfrom a vehicle poweredby an internalcombustion engine(ICE), to electricity.
ICE car
CO
2em
issi
ons
ICE+ATEG
ATEG helps to reduce the fuel consumption of a
Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicle
5-7%
decrease
17
AUTOMOTIVE THERMOELECTRIC GENERATOR
Drivers, advantages and challenges
• Drivers
• Targets for CO2 emission reduction in cars
• Growing needs for electricity supply in vehicles
• Advantages:
• Use of energy that would be otherwise wasted
• Relatively small size
• No moving parts
• No circulating fluid (depending on system design)
• Challenges
• High cost of thermoelectric materials
• Existing alternatives for reducing CO2 emissions in vehicles
• Inefficiency to generate high power
• Needs for durable and maintenance-free power sources
• Reliability under high temperature operation and multiple thermal cycling
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Automotive World
0 200°C 400°C 600°C 800°C
Human body
Solar heat
Geothermal
heat
Cooling
AutomotiveIndustrial heat
Industrial heat
Open fire
Durability and maintenance-free operation is one of the
key challenges of using thermoelectricity in cars
Waste heat to Electricity Thermoelectric generator
18
AUTOMOTIVE THERMOELECTRIC GENERATOR
ATEG system components
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Automotive World
TE pellets
TEG module
Example of a TEG system prototype with TE modules, connections to the exhaust
pipe and cold plate (Courtesy: GMZ Energy, Bosch)Schematic of an ATEG built in a exhaust system and example
of an envisaged TEG application in automotive industry –
electrically heated seats
TEG module schematic
Ceramic plate + metallization
These images are for illustration purposes only.
Ceramic plate
DC/DC
TEG
Catalyst Muffler
Power converter
Liquid
Cooler
Metallized ceramic plates N-type and p-type legs
19
AUTOMOTIVE THERMOELECTRIC GENERATOR
Examples of existing systems
• In 2006, scientists inBSST, now theAdvanced Technologydivision of GenthermIncorporated andBMW of NorthAmerica announcedtheir intention tolaunch the firstcommercial ATEG in2013… The GenthermATEG positionssemiconductorsbetween the exhauststream and a cooledouter surface toproduce electricity.[15]
• Not yet availablecommercially?
a
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Automotive World
Prototypes of vehicles with thermoelectronics
DOE
© 2015
Market and Trends in Electric and Hybrid Electric
Vehicles (EV/HEV)
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Automotive World
21
DIFFERENT TYPES OF VEHICLES AND THEIR MARKET
Different level of electrification and CO2 reduction associated
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Automotive World
CO2 reduction compared
to thermal vehicles (in %)
Level of electrificationThermal vehicle
(Taken as reference)
SSV/µHEV
Mild HEV
Full HEV
PHEV/ EREV
EV (BEV or FCV)
5 – 10%
10 – 25%
25 – 40%
50 – 100%
100%
Car example
Tesla Model S
Mitsubishi Outlander
Toyota Prius
Honda Civic
Citroen C2
VW Golf
Yole Développement 2015
23
WHAT MADE THE MARKET GROW IN THE LAST YEARS?
Customer point of view on electric cars is changing
• Electrified cars were seen as a strange technological object for a long time, which contributed to the low sales levels
• With emergence of new players and cars such as the Tesla Model S or the BMW i8, customer point of view onelectrified cars change. Moreover, with Volkswagen scandal (concerning faked CO2 emission rates for the brand’svehicles) revealed, consumers are more aware of automotive pollution issues electric cars are now seen asmodern and fashion
• Implication of a large part of car manufacturers also participate into the growth of electrified vehicles market enlargement of the offer customers can choose between various types of hybridizations (hybrid, plug-in hybrid orfull electric), types of cars (SUV, sedan or smaller vehicles) and brands
What people thought of EV when first
hearing of it
What people thought of EV when first
prototypes were demonstrated What EV really look like now
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Automotive World
24
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
0 5 10 15
CO
2R
ed
ucti
on
Additional cost (k$)
EV/HEV MARKET DRIVERS & BARRIERS
HEV/EV additional cost vs CO2 reduction benefit
Cost reduction for pure EV and plug-in HEV is expected to be significant in 2020
SSV
Mild HEV
Full HEV
PHEV
EV/HEV today status
Pure EV
Projection to 2020
• Hypothesis for 2020:
• 30% reduction for electronic components
• 40% reduction for batteries
Source: Yole Développement
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Automotive World
25
WHAT MADE THE MARKET GROW IN THE LAST YEARS?
Range increase reassures customers and boosts the sales
Thanks to battery cost decrease and technical solutions developed, electric cars range keep on increasing, pulling the market
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Automotive World
Tesla Roadster
Kandi EV
Tesla Model S
Mercedes SLS AMG
BDNT Denza
BYD e6
Toyota RAV4
Range depends on the type of vehicle chosen
and the use of it. Thanks to power density
increase, technical improvements and battery
cost decrease, range keeps on increasing
Tesla Motors cars are the first ones to
have a range above 300km
Kandi EV is mainly use for
urban car sharing: its range is
not a crucial parameter
26
WHAT ARE THE REMAINING BRAKES FOR ELECTRIFIED CARS GROWTH?
An expensive electro-mobility also due to high battery cost
Another financial brake to electro-mobility: battery cost
• As cost is one ofthe main criteriawhen purchasing acar, every additionalcost is important
• The differencebetween electricand thermicvehicles presentedon the previousslide also comesfrom battery cost,which represents abig weight in overallcost
• Even if targets for2020 are veryambitious, currentlevel of battery cost
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Automotive World
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Pri
ce (
$/k
Wh)
Forecasts for battery pack price evolution
Source: “Energy Management for smart grid, cities and buildings: Opportunities
for battery electricity storage solutions” report, Yole Développement, 2015
In 2015, battery
pack was sold
around 370$/kWh
Official target for 2020 is
100$/kWh at cell level,
representing ~260$/kWh
for battery pack
27
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
DC chargers units evolution worldwide
Japan Europe USA Others Total
WHAT MADE THE MARKET GROW IN THE LAST YEARS?
Charging infrastructure has been growing for a few years
At the end of November 2015 there were more than11,000 DC chargers worldwide
• Charginginfrastructure is akey point todevelop toencourage electricvehicles growth:before buying an EVa customer willcheck if he cancharge it easily andquickly
• We currentlyestimate that thereare 1.5 times moreAC chargers thanBEV
• Governments helpdeveloping thisinfrastructurefinancing fast DCcharging points
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Automotive World
Considering CHAdeMO and CCS
chargers
Amount of DC
chargers was multiplied
by 2 in one year
28
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Thermic Start/Stop Mild HEV Full HEV PHEV EV
Cost
(in $
)
Average cost of 100km for different types of vehicles
WHAT MADE THE MARKET GROW IN THE LAST YEARS?
With high price of fuel and low cost of electricity, electric mobility is cheaper
Considering only the cost of “refueling” a car (at home for electric car), an EV is 6 times cheaper than a thermic vehicle
• Prices of fuel andelectricity vary verymuch depending onthe areas of theworld, but anaverage estimationgives the resultsshown on the chart
• Even if this costdoesn’t take intoaccount the price ofbuying the vehicle,some customerscan find a cheaperoption in electricvehicle than in athermic vehicle
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Automotive World
-10%
-10%
-25%
-50%
-50%
-85%
29
DIFFERENT TYPES OF VEHICLES AND THEIR MARKET
What about electrified cars?
• Even if the firstelectric car wasborn at thebeginning of 20th
century, the firstrepresentative salesof electrified carsstarted in 2013
• Since that year,vehicleelectrification isgrowing
• Between 2014 and2015, the amountof full electric carssold was multipliedby 2, which is veryencouraging for thefuture
• By 2020, we expectelectrified cars torepresent morethan 10% of thesales
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Automotive World
2013 2014 2015* 2020*
Sales of passenger cars
worldwide
…
1.8 M HEV (2.1%)
85 millions 88 millions 90 millions 102 millions
0.09 M PHEV (0.11%)
0.11 M EV (0.13%)
2.2 M HEV (2.5%) 2.6 M HEV (2.9%) 8.3 M HEV (8.1%)
0.14 M PHEV (0.16%) 0.3 M PHEV (0.33%) 1.4 M PHEV (1.4%)
0.14 M EV (0.16%) 0.4 M EV (0.43%) 1.8 M EV (1.8%)
* Data/estimation to be confirmed
31
CHALLENGES IN EV/HEV
Technical Targets: Power density roadmap for PE used in electric vehicles
• Cost of EV/HEV systems is not yet competitive compared to combustion engines.
• To reach significantly lower cost, a considerable investment in needed in technology, integration with other vehicle systems,cross platform sharing, etc.
Whole Traction Drive Systems Power Electronics Motors
Year Cost $/kW kW/Kg kW/l Efficiency Cost $/kW kW/Kg kW/l Cost $/kW kW/Kg kW/l
2010 19 1.06 2.6 > 90% 7.9 10.8 8.7 11.1 1.2 3.7
2015 12 1.2 3.5 > 93% 5 12 12 7 1.3 5
2020 8 1.5 3.5 > 94% 3.3 14.1 13.4 4.7 1.6 5.7
2025 5 1.6 5 > 95% 2.1 15.8 17.6 2.9 1.7 7.4
Challenges
Traction Drive System
• Benchmarking technologies
• Innovative systems designs
Power Electronics• Innovative topologies
• Temperature-tolerant devices
• Packaging
• Capacitors
• Vehicle charging
• New materials
Electric Machines
• Permanent magnet (PM) motors
• Magnetic materials
• High-performance of non-PM motors
• Thermal system integration
• Heat transfer technologies
• Thermal stress and reliability
Specification: 55kW peak for 18 sec, 30kW continuous: 15 years life
Source: US Drive June 2013
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Automotive World
Key drivers for innovations in power electronics (PE):
• Weight reduction
• Volume reduction
• Cost reduction
32
CASE STUDY: POWER ASSEMBLY: NISSAN LEAF INVERTER WEIGHT REPARTITION
The biggest part of Nissan Leaf inverter in terms of weight is the heat exchanger
• 6 different elements are composing the
weight within a 2012 Nissan Leaf
Inverter
• Active devices (mainly power module +
gate driver) are only second in terms of
weight part inside the inverter
• Devices devoted to thermal
management (heat exchanger) is the
heaviest part, representing 1/3 of the
overall weight
• Packaging and connection represent a
significant proportion with more than
20% of the overall weightSource: ORNL
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Automotive World
16.3
kg
33
TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP
Main targets:
• better cooling
• higher integration
• multiple inverters
Converters co-integration• DC/DC Boost + Inverter + Generator• Inverter + LV-HV DC/DC• On board DC/DC + LV-HV DC/DC
Direct CoolingDouble side cooling
Co-integration motor + inverter:• Increase power density• Inverter mechatronic design to fit
with motor aspect ration
In-Wheel MotorDual Motors
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Automotive World
Power assembly technology toward higher integration and power density
34
TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP
Main targets:
• better cooling
• higher integration
• higher frequency
Toyota 2010• Standard packaging• Ribbon bonding• Direct substrate cooling
Honda 2010 • Epoxy packaging• Cu lead bonding• Direct substrate cooling
Delphi 2010• Single IGBT/diode packaging• Flip-chip soldering• Direct substrate cooling
Denso 2008/Lexus LS• Single IGBT/diode packaging• Flip-chip soldering• Double side cooling• Too expensive
3.0 mm
Bosch 2013• Molded package• Die on Leadframe• Thick Copper layer for thermal
spreading• Direct substrate cooling
Mitsubishi 2014• Six Pack IGBT/Diode Package• Cooling fin• Thick Copper layer for thermal
spreading• Direct substrate cooling
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Automotive World
Power module technology toward higher integration and power density
36
SiC ADDED VALUE
SiCdevices allow to reduce system size and weight.
High electron mobilityHigh Junction T°
No recovery time
during switching
Low lossesless energy to dissipate
Fewer cooling
needs
System size and
weight
reduction
High switching
frequency
Smaller filters
and passives
Intrinsic
properties
Impact on
operation
Impact on
power module
Impact on
power system
©2015 | www.yole.fr | Toyota Industries Corporation: SiC Market Analysis and Relationship Setup©2016 | www.yole.fr | Automotive World
37
SEMICONDUCTOR DEVICES: PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR WIDE BANDGAP
Power device technology positioning
WBG devices are primarily positioned in high-end applications
1200V or more
600V or less
Pro
du
ct r
ange
Voltage
IGBTThyristor
IGCT…
SiC
MOSFET
Triacs
Bipolar…
3.3kV and more200V
GaN GaN
• Historically, silicon had the complete monopoly of the semiconductors industry in Integrated Circuits (IC), in Microchips and in Power Electronics.
• New raw materials for semiconductors such as Wide Bandgap materials Silicon Carbide (SiC) and Gallium Nitride (GaN)have been developed since some decades now.
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Automotive World
38
DIFFERENT TYPES OF ELECTRIFIED VEHICLES
Definition
WBG couldbe used for
full HEV PHEV and pure EV
applications.
Functions SSV Mild HEV Full HEVPHEV (with
EREV)
EV (BEV or
FCV)
Start/stop: stop engine idle when
a vehicle slows down and comes
to a stopX X X X X
Regenerate braking X X X X
Additional power for a few
seconds (electric motor)X X X X
Additional power for mid distance
(city traffic)X X X
Power for long distance (10 to 40
miles)X X X
recharge battery on the grid or
with a generatorX X
Energy savings 5-10%
(up to 25% in city
traffic)
10- 25% 25 – 50% 50 – 100% 100%
Electric power 3-8 kW 4 - 20 kW 30 - 75 kW 70 – 100 kW 70 – 100 kW
Car example PSA C2 Honda Civic Toyota Prius GM Volt Nissan Leaf
PHEV: Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle, EREV: Energy Range Extender Vehicle, BEV: Battery Electric Vehicle, FCV: Fuel Cell Vehicle
Possible if LV-HV
DC/DC Converter
SiC or GaN Target
©2015 | www.yole.fr | Toyota Industries Corporation: SiC Market Analysis and Relationship Setup©2016 | www.yole.fr | Automotive World
39
Converters SSVMild
HEV
Full
HEV
PHEV (with
EREV)
EV (BEV
or FCV)
1. Start/stop moduleMOSFET
1.5 to 10 kW
Av: 3.5 kW
2. DC/DC converter 14V (toMOSFET – 1.5 / 3 kW – Av: 2.25 kW
3. DC/AC inverter ( + DC/DC
booster option )
MOSFET or
IGBT
5 /20 kW
Av: 15 kW
IGBT – 20 / 150 kW
Av: 70 kW
4. GeneratorIGBT – 20 / 40 kW
Av: 30 kW
5. Battery charger
MOSFET - 3/6 kW – Av: 4.5 kW
and then
IGBT - 10 / 20 kW – Av: 15 kW
Total average
power / car 3.5 kW 17.25 kW 52.25 kW 56.75 to 102.5 kW
(for a single motor setup)
Here are the applications that are specific to HEV/EV. Standard ICE power device applications are not considered (oil pump, steering, braking, HVAC….).
Auxiliary inverters have not been considered due to the small amount of power devices.
DIFFERENT TYPES OF ELECTRIFIED VEHICLES
Device types and power levels
WBG devices could
replace Si based IGBT
and MOSFET in EV/HEV
applications.
Could be replaced by WBG
©2015 | www.yole.fr | Toyota Industries Corporation: SiC Market Analysis and Relationship Setup©2016 | www.yole.fr | Automotive World
40
YOLE’S VISION OF WBG PENETRATION IN EV/HEV BEFORE 2020
GaN vs SiC *
GaN and SiChave
opportunities in different applications.
On-board charger topology (3 or 7kW)
The topology of on-board fast charger is similar to that of inverter: SiC possible
400V
Standard InverterTopology (generator)
400V
230V
Already SiC
SiC Possible
SiC Possible
GaN or SiCTransistor + SiC diode
GaN or SiCTransistor
LV-HV DC/DC converter topology
GaN or SiC Transistor + SiC diode
GaN Possible
DC/DC booster
SiC Possible
on-board
Wireless charger
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Automotive World
* Our vision is based on the current status, the situation could evolve with further development.
41
CONVERTERS & INVERTERS IN EV/HEV
Where SiC & GaN?
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Automotive World
DC/DC
boost
converter
DC/AC
Inverter
Electric
motor
DC/AC
inverter
AC/DC
converter
200-
450VDC
DC/AC
Inverter
Air conditioner
Torque to
drive wheels /
breaking
energy
recuperation
DC/DC
converterEngine
generator
12V
battery
AC electric
accessory load
Toyota only
High voltage
battery
• Two wide-band gap materials(GaN and SiC) are candidatesfor new devices for invertersand converters in EV/HEV.
• Technologically speaking, SiCfor high-power DC/ACinverters (and in the Toyota’scase also for the boost DC/DCconverter) and GaN is moreadapted for low-power DC/DCand AC/DC converters.
• However, the choice of SiC orGaN is more complex anddepends on numerous criteria.
• SiC technology might beimplemented also in low-powerconverters due to lack oftechnology maturity of GaN(compared to more matureSiC).
Power devices positioning within an EV/HEV
Yole Développement
On-board
battery
charger
DC electric
accessory load
42
ROADMAP OF IMPLEMENTATION OF SiC DEVICES IN EV/HEV
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Automotive World
AC/DC
on-
board
charger
DC/DC
Diode
Switch
AC/DC
DC/AC
Year
Power
2kW
3kW
7kW
55kW+
2015 2018 2023
Augmentation of
current capacity
900V/30A from CREE
is well-positioned for
this segmentIntroduction of SiC components into
devices in EV/HEV (axes not in scale)Yole Développement
powertrain
43
SiC – EV/HEV PARTNERSHIPS
Case study: Mitsubishi
Mechatronic integration is a promising approach to further reduce the system volume.
• Mechatronic integration (inverter within the motor)
is one of the optimization trends for the future
EV/HEV cars.
• Mitsubishi has developed a SiC-based inverter
integrated with the motor.
• Thanks to SiC capabilities, the overall volume is
reduced by 44% (from 25L to 14.1L) for a 60 kW
inverter.
• A cylindrically-shaped power module accommodates
parallel cooling ducts for improved cooling of the
motor and the inverter. This design is said to ensure
stable cooling and to allow the use of low-power
pumps.
• According to Mitsubishi, the price of SiC devices must
be lowered for mass production.
Mitsubishi integrated SiC liquid cooled inverter
Inverter mechatronic integration with the motor
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Automotive World
44
SiC – EV/HEV PARTNERSHIPS
SiC components evaluation by Toyota
Test of SiCcomponents in hybrid vehicle and fuel cell bus.
• Project lead by:Toyota (JP)
• Evaluation of the performance of SiC power semiconductors,which could lead to significant efficiency improvements inhybrids and other vehicles with electric powertrains.
• Goal: to assess the improvement to efficiency achieved by thenew SiC power semiconductors.
• Two types of testing vehicles:• Toyota Camry hybrid prototype
• Fuel cell bus
• Toyota Camry hybrid prototype:• SiC power semiconductors (transistors and diodes) installed in the
PCU’s internal voltage step-up converter and the inverter thatcontrols the motor.
• Fuel cell bus:• SiC diodes installed in the fuel cell voltage step-up converter, which
is used to control the voltage of electricity from the fuel cell stack.
• The bus is currently in regular commercial operation in Toyota City.
• The technologies behind these SiC power semiconductors weredeveloped in Japan jointly by:
• Toyota
• Denso Corporation
• Toyota Central R&D Labs., Inc.
• The SiC transistor is a trenched MOSFET manufactured with a4-inch SiC wafer.
Toyota Camry hybrid prototype with
SiC components
SiC diode chips
SiC transistor chips
Toyota fuel cell bus with
SiC diodes
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Automotive World
45
SiC AT TOYOTA: CASE STUDY
Toyota’s vision
Toyota’s goal is to have 10% improvement in fuel efficiency and PCU downsizing of 80%.
Over 5% fuel efficiency improvement was confirmed.
• According to Toyota, approximatively 20% of HEV total electrical power loss is associated with powersemiconductors. SiC power devices allow to increase fuel efficiency and reduce PCU size.
• Trench structure SiC is adopted.
Source: Toyota
©2015 | www.yole.fr | Toyota Industries Corporation: SiC Market Analysis and Relationship Setup©2016 | www.yole.fr | Automotive World
46
SIC DEVICE MARKET IN EV/HEV
Split by type
The implementation
of SiC in HV/HEV began with on-board chargers. Implementation
in the power train is expected
in 2020.
Power train
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Automotive World
47
GAN DEVICE MARKET IN EV/HEV
Split by type – Nominal scenario
GaNtransistors
are expected for on-board chargers and
LV-HV DC/DC
converters in 2018.
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Automotive World
© 2015
Sensors for Autonomous Vehicles:
Status and Trends
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Automotive World
49
$200B
HOW SIGNIFICANT IS THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY?
Two industries controlled by
giant companies with ~$200B in
revenue
2014 industry revenue comparison
Consumer ElectronicsIndustry
AutomotiveIndustry $2.2T
CAGR +2.7%
88M units
ASP $28,000
$1.140T
CAGR +4.4%
3,046M units
ASP $374
$142B
CAGR +7%
88M units
ASP $1,614
Automotive
Electronics
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Automotive World
≈ ≈ ≈ ≈
The car is the next consumer
electronics device!
50
GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP
Moore and beyond: from information to interaction and transformation
MEMS & sensors enable key
functionalities…
…which are the industry’s current
battleground
1980 2010 2030
Moore More than Moore Beyond Moore
LaptopPersonal computers
Smartphones
Autonomous
vehicles
Robotic
servants
Quantified
self
Drones
Acceleration
SensingInteraction age
ProcessingInformation age
ActuatingTransformation age
Tablets
Smart
homes
2040
Telekinesis
Space travel
Yole Développement © August2015
Technology x
Market
Development
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Automotive World
51
TECHNOLOGY BLOCKS FOR AUTOMATION
Software and ECU are the
next blocks to evolve
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Automotive World
Data management
Penetration rate
limited by:
- Bandwidth
- Storage capacity
Data
Storage
ECU
Software
Power processing
Penetration rate limited by:
- Power processing
- Power consumption
Sensors: A majority of technologies are ready
Penetration rate limited by:
- Cost Software
Penetration rate
limited by:
- Offer (emerging)
ECU
Software
Sensors
Connectivity and infrastructure
Penetration rate limited by:
- Harmonization
Connectivity/
Infrastructure
52
TECHNOLOGY SLOWLY REPLACES THE DRIVER
It should take almost150 years
to replace the driver in high-
end cars
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Automotive World
1900 1980 1980 2012 2012 2022
2028 20222045 2028+2100 2045
Allenv.
Specific env.
Specific env.
Specific env.
Specific env.
Allenv.
53
SENSORS EMBEDDED ON SEMI-AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES
How to sense environment, obstacles, potholes, etc.?
Turn your car into a
superhero-mobile!
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Automotive World
Ultrasound
Parking, SR pedestrian &
obstacle detection
Short-range radar
Front & rear parking
Long-range radar
Adaptive Cruise Control
CMOS Image SensorsBlind-spot, side-view (mirrorless cars),
accident recorder, rear park assist
Stereo cameras: direction & distance for
LDWS & traffic sign recognition
Night visionPedestrian / animal detection
LIDAR3D mapping of surroundings
Dead reckoning sensorsOdometry
54
TECHNOLOGY OVERVIEW - COMPARISON
Due to redundancy, a car will have
differenttechnologies for the same
functions
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Automotive World
Ultrasound SR radar MR/LR radarCMOS image
sensorsNigh vision Lidar
Dead
reckoning
sensors
Frequency 50 kHz 24-81GHz visible NIR - LWIR Infra red -
Range (m) 10 Short: 0.2-30Medium: 30-60
Long: 20080-100
150 – 200 (NIR)
400 – 500 (LWIR)50-70 -
Number of
sensors/car4 (surround)
2 (side)
3 (front)
1 (rear)
1 3 (today) – 10 (future) 1 1 1
Functions
• position of
objects very
close to the
vehicle
• Parking sensors
• SR pedestrian &
obstacle
detection
• front & rear for
car parking• ACC
• Blind spot, side
view (mirrorless
cars), accident
recorder, rear,
park assist
• Stereo cameras:
direction &
distance for LDWS
& traffic signs
recognition
• Pedestrian /
animal detection
• 3D mapping of
surroundings• Odometry
ASP $15 - $20 $50 - $100 $125 - $150$125 - $150
$150 - $200 (stereo)$900
$8,000-$80k today
Target is < $500$80 - $120
Requirements • Sensitive to dirt• Rain / snow
proof
• Rain / snow
proof
• Resolution <
1m
• HDR
• Robustness
• Low light / low
contrast imaging
• Larger range /
blooming
sensitive for NIR
• High cost /
Higher resolution
for LWIR
• Rain / snow
proof
• < 0.5 m
accuracy
55
HOW TO INTEGRATE LIDAR IN A CAR
Some LIDAR developers, like
Quanergy,target high-
performance LIDAR at a low
price for the automotive
market
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Automotive World
Range x Angular resolution x
Distance resolution
Price
$2,500 $5,000 $10,000 $20,000
Sweet spot
56
SENSOR MODULE ASP FOR EACH AUTOMATION LEVEL
A level-3 car will have
$2200 worth of embedded sensors for
AD
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Automotive World
Sensors - Lvl 1 # Cost
Ultrasonic 4 $15
Radar LRR 1 $125
Camera for
surround1 $80
TOTAL 6 $265
Sensors - Lvl 2 # Cost
Ultrasonic 8 $15
Radar LRR 1 $125
Radar SRR 4 $50
Camera for
surround4 $80
TOTAL 17 $765
Sensors - Lvl 3 # Cost
Ultrasonic 10 $14
Radar LRR 2 $116
Radar SRR 6 $47
Long distance cam 2 $93
Camera surround 5 $74
Stereo camera 1 $140
µbolo 1 $500
LIDAR 1 $260
Dead reckoning 1 $80
TOTAL 29 $2190
Sensors – Lvl 4 # Cost
Ultrasonic 10 $13
Radar LRR 2 $109
Radar SRR 6 $44
Long distance cam 2 $87
Camera surround 5 $70
Stereo camera 1 $131
µbolo 1 $423
LIDAR 1 $217
Dead reckoning 1 $63
TOTAL 29 $1970
Sensors – Lvl 5 # Cost
Ultrasonic 10 $12
Radar LRR 2 $99
Radar SRR 6 $38
Long distance cam 4 $79
Camera surround 5 $60
Stereo camera 2 $119
µbolo 1 $267
LIDAR 1 $133
Dead reckoning 1 $54
TOTAL 32 $1854
57
INDUSTRIAL CHAIN FOR AUTOMOTIVE
A conventional automotive industrial chain…
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Automotive World
Car manufacturer
Tier 1(System Manufacturer)
Tier 2(Parts Manufacturer)
Tier 3(Material Manufacturer)
2015Value
58
INDUSTRIAL CHAIN FOR AUTOMOTIVE
Some newcomers
could change the landscape
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Automotive World
Car manufacturer
Tier 0.5(Software Provider)
Tier 1(System Manufacturer)
Tier 2(Parts Manufacturer)
Tier 3(Material Manufacturer)
2022Value
59
INDUSTRIAL CHAIN FOR AUTOMOTIVE
A consolidated automotive industrial
chain
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Automotive World
Service Provider
Car manufacturer
Tier 0.5(Software Provider)
Tier 1(System Manufacturer)
Tier 2(Parts Manufacturer)
Tier 3(Material Manufacturer)
2035Value
Google or Apple as car manufacturers?
Margins are too much low for a company like Google, however they could sell an autonomous pack to transform each new
vehicle in a fully autonomous car. Apple, as always, will require a complete control on the hardware and software… It’s not
completely insane to think that they could participate to the design of a part or a complete vehicle.
Any question?
oDr. Pierric GUEGUEN• Business Unit Manager
oMr.Takashi ONOZAWA• PresidentYole KK
61
OUR 2015 REPORTS PLANNING
MARKET & TECHNOLOGY
REPORTS by Yole
Développement
o MEMS & SENSORS
− Sensors and Data Management for Autonomous Vehicles
− AlN Thin Film Markets And Applications
− Sensors for Wearable Electronics And Mobile Healthcare
− Status of the MEMS Industry
− Uncooled IR Imagers
− IR Detectors
− High End Gyro, Accelerometers and IMU
− Non-Volatile Memory
o IMAGING & OPTOELECTRONICS
− Camera Module Packaging (Vol 1 : Market & Technology Trends / Vol 2 Teardowns &
Reverse Engineering)
− Uncooled IR Imagers
− Wafer Level Optics
− Status of the CMOS Image Sensors
− Machine Vision
o MEDTECH
− Microfluidic for Sample Preparation
− Microfluidic Applications
− Sensors for Wearable Electronics And Mobile Healthcare
o COMPOUND SEMICONDUCTORS
− High Purity Alumina (HPA)
− Sapphire
− Wide Bandgap Materials For Power Electronics: SiC, GaN (and also Ga2O3, AlN,
Diamond, Graphene… as a trend)
* Reports to be decided within 2015
o LED
− LED Module
− OLED for Lighting
− UV LED
− LED Phosphors Market
o POWER ELECTRONICS
− Power Packaging
− Thermal Management for LED and Power
− Power Electronics for Renewable Energy
− Energy Management For Smart Grid And Smart Cities
− Status of Chinese Power Electronics Industry
− New Technologies For Data Center
− Inverter Market Trends For 2013 – 2020 And Major Technology Changes*
− IGBT Markets And Application Trends
− Power Electronics for HEV/EV*
− Status of Power Electronics Industry
o ADVANCED PACKAGING
− Advanced Packaging in Emerging Markets in China
− Status of the Advanced Packaging Industry
− Supply Chain Readiness for Panel Manufacturing in Packaging
− WLCSP*
− Flip Chip Business Update
− 2.5D & 3DIC Business Update
− Fan-Out and Embedded Business Update
o MANUFACTURING
− Lithography for MEMS, Advanced Packaging and LED
− Thinning & Dicing Equipment for Advanced Packaging, MEMS, Photovoltaics, LED, CMOS
Image Sensors
− Non-Volatile Memory
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Automotive World
63
MEMS &
Sensors
LED / OLED
Compound
Semi.
Imaging Photonics
MedTech
Manufacturing
Advanced
PackagingPV
Power
Electronics
FIELDS OF EXPERTISE
Yole Développement’s 30 analysts operate in the following areas
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Automotive World
64
4 BUSINESS MODELS
o Consulting and Analysis
• Market data & research, marketing analysis
• Technology analysis
• Strategy consulting
• Reverse engineering & costing
• Patent analysis
www.yole.fr
o Reports
• Market & Technology reports
• Patent Investigation and patent infringement risk analysis
• Teardowns & Reverse Costing Analysis
• Cost Simulation Tool
www.i-Micronews.com/reports
o Financial services
• M&A (buying and selling)
• Due diligence
• Fundraising
• Maturation of companies
• IP portfolio management & optimization
www.yolefinance.com
Blu Morpho
o Media
• i-Micronews.com website
• @Micronews e-newsletter
• Technology magazines
• Communication & webcast services
• Events
www.i-Micronews.com
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Automotive World
65
A GROUP OF COMPANIES
Market,
technology and
strategy
consulting
www.yole.fr
M&A operations
Due diligences
www.yolefinance.com
Fundraising
Maturation of companies
IP portfolio management & optimization
www.bmorpho.com
Manufacturing costs analysis
Teardown and reverse engineering
Cost simulation tools
www.systemplus.fr
IP analysis
Patent assessment
www.knowmade.fr
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Automotive World
66
OUR GLOBAL ACTIVITY
Yole JapanYole Inc.
Yole
Korea
40% of our business is in
EU countries30% of our business is in
North America
30% of our business is in
Asia
Blu Morpho
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Automotive World
67
SERVING THE ENTIRE SUPPLY CHAIN
Our analysts provide market analysis,
technology evaluation,
and business plan along the entire supply
chain.
Integrators and
end-users
Device
makers
Suppliers: material,
equipment, OSAT,
foundries…
Financial investors,
R&D centers
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Automotive World
68
CONTACT INFORMATION
oConsulting and Specific Analysis
• North America: Steve LaFerriere, Director of Northern America Business
Development, Yole Inc.
Email: [email protected]
• Japan: Yutaka Katano, General Manager, Yole Japan & President, Yole K.K.
Email: [email protected]
• EMEA: Jerome Azemar, Senior Analyst and Business Development Manager, Yole
Développement
Email: [email protected]
• RoW: Jean-Christophe Eloy, President & CEO, Yole Développement
Email: [email protected]
oReport business
• North America: Steve LaFerriere, Director of Northern America Business
Development, Yole Inc.
Email: [email protected]
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©2016 | www.yole.fr | Automotive World
