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When Computers are Everywhere Will WE HAVE SUPERPOWERS? Guy
Guy
Inspire ✦ Be Inspired ✦ Create Amazing Experiences
Anticipate
CTO Council Citrix Labs
Innovate
Future of Education
Future of Work
So where are we headed with computing?
http://www.businessinsider.com/global-smartphone-market-forecast-vendor-platform-growth-2015-6
7.4
2015
2020
A smart phone in the developing world is a powerful enabler of: • Connection • Education • Banking • Healthcare • Security • Etc.
2013 $1.9T IoT - IDC (everything on the net) 2017 $7.3T IoT - IDC 2018 7B M2M connections with 80% YOY Growth - 2020 50B devices - 80% of Revenue from Services - Gartner
“$19T market in the next decade”
http://www.businessinsider.com/internet-of-everything-2015-bi-2014-12
A/V Today
In 4 Years
IT for the Non-Office Biggest Ever IT Expansion
1T Devices by 2030 @ 30% CAGR
Fusion of the Physical
and Digital World
1T Devices =
1 every 6 sqft
Par
alle
lism
/ C
ompu
te P
ower
Time
Traditional Computing
Transistors
Increasing Parallelism
Decreasing Power
Beyond Moore: Curve Jumping in Computing
4 to 8 Cores
100B Neurons 1Q Connections
87M X Less Power
Human Brain
Mobile Computing
Transistor / Watt
Powerless Computing
Mined Power Transistors / Watt
Parallel Computing
Cores
Neural Computing
Neurons + Synapses
Simultaneous Computing
Quantum Bits
1K to 5K Cores
1M Neurons 256M Connections
The Death of Dumb Cameras and Mics
Breaks Cryptography as we know it
This scale of computing will necessitate a change in how we interact with computers
1 Remote -> 1 Thing
1 App -> 1 Thing
1 Person -> Everything
We have seen amazing change in computing….
1) Goto Computing: Mainframes & Desktops 2) Luggable Computing: Laptops & Tablets 3) Intimate Computing: Phones & Wearables 4) Immersive Computing: IoT & Mixed Reality 5) Accommodative Computing: Robotics & AI
1946
Wires
1950-1960s
Switches and Punchcards
1970s
Command Line
Interface
1984
Graphical User
Interface
2007
Multi-touch + Accelerometers
2010
Depth Cameras and
Gesture
2011
Speech Question and
Answer Interfaces
2012
Brain Interface
2013
Intimate Computing
2014
Directional Hearing
2015
Projection and Augmented
Reality
Inferencebasedonsensing
Context Understanding
Natural Human Interfaces
https://www.microsoft.com/microsoft-hololens/en-us
What Can We Learn from the Military?
1. Observe (MULTI-INT)
3. Decide
2. Orient (Analyze)
4. Act
Observe Orient Decide Act (OODA)
Military Takeaways
• Logistics: Deploying sensors is a huge logistics problem
• Events: “Events are the Substance of Time” – Einstein
• Time and Location Matter: Everything is tagged with a time and location.
• Action Oriented: Collect data and build models you can act upon.
• “Operational Picture”: Build a World Model by connecting the data.
Data is far more valuable when it is connected. Similar to Metcalfe’s Law about networking.
What can we learn from consumer IoT?
How about Halloween as a Testbed?
Lesson 1: Location Matters
Lesson 2: Understand Device Limitations: Power Consumption, Networking, and Compute Power
Cactus Micro Rev1 ESP8266 Great Board, Horrible Antenna
Particle Photon With an Antenna Option
Test
LED Test Test
LED
Test Test
Test
Ant
Ant Ant
Test Test
Ant
Lesson 3: You can make dumb things smarter…
It just takes a little effort…
Lesson 4: Survey Your Network
Fill gaps with Network Extenders Add Antennas where needed
Lesson 5: KISS your Software
Web Server
Web Service
User Interface
Devices
A Little Architecture …
1 Location Matters: When we surround ourselves with computing the location matters. 2 Understand Device Limitations: Power consumption, quality of networking chips / antennas, and compute power all put limits on what any one device can do. 3 Dumb Devices can be Smart: Making dumb devices smarter is doable, but requires some maker know how. 4 Survey Your Network: You may need to boost wireless signals to fill coverage holes and / or add antennas to some devices. 5 KISS your Software: Make the firmware simple and flexible as possible so you don’t have to flash dozens of devices repeatedly. Keep realtime behaviors closer to the edge. Put the intelligent orchestration in the cloud, gateway, or end user interface device. 6 Understand Your Realtime Needs: Like synchronizing audio. 7 IOT Onboarding: There is a lot of opportunity to make device onboarding easier including claiming devices, network joins, and device configuration. 8 IOT Interaction: Interacting naturally without a remote or custom app is critical. 9 Automation: Better automation requires context. In this case knowing where people are. 10 Operations: Consider the effort to power, monitor, update, and repair these devices. Experiment & Have Fun!!: The best way to learn is play with stuff.
Consumer IOT Lesson Summary
What are is IoT missing today?
• World Model – How do we turn stovepipe IoT systems in models and control systems of homes, businesses, and cities.
• Simplified / Standard Onboarding – Cellular has the advantage of onboarding at point of sale via a sim card. For wifi a system that listened for new networks and allowed you to claim them would be easier for consumers.
• Simplified / Standard Interaction – The idea of using visual recognition and context to select and control things by gesture, voice, image, etc.
?
QUESTIONS
Inspire ✦ Be Inspired ✦ Create Amazing Experiences
Thank You
@gbieber2
Guy Bieber – Futurist, Innovator, Mentor
