Science, policy and large-scale fertilization of the ocean for carbon offsets

Science, policy and large-scale fertilization Science, policy and large-scale fertilization of the ocean for carbon offsetsof the ocean for carbon offsets

John J. Cullen

Department of Oceanography, Dalhousie University

Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada B3H 4J1

[email protected]

IGBP 20th Anniversary Symposium

Earth System Science and Society

Stockholm – 17 September 2007

1988

The “Iron Hypothesis” gains prominence

Nature 331 p341-343 1988

IGBP 20th Anniversary Symposium: John Cullen

“give me half a tanker of iron, and I will give you the next ice age”

… John Martin

1990

Report is “released”

Plentyofpublicity

February 1991

Scientists tackle the issue head-on


Consensus Resolution

The American Society of Limnology and Oceanography (ASLO) formally “…urg[es] all governments to regard the role of iron in marine

productivity as an area for further research and not to consider [large scale] iron fertilization as a policy

option that significantly changes the need to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide.”

(Limnology and Oceanography 1991, Vol. 36)

1993-2006+ Research has been successful

Results reported in the scientific literatureResults reported in the scientific literature

…virtually inaccessible to the general public

Relevant research routinely sensationalized Relevant research routinely sensationalized by the mediaby the media

?


Plans for commercial fertilization of the ocean were quickly developed

Patent for fertilization with iron chelate

May include seeding surface layers with other nutrients, microorganisms, and fish Michael Markels, Jr.

Promotional materials distributed on the web

Farming the Ocean by Michael Markels, Jr., Ocean Farming, Inc., USA

Ocean farming is the modification of the ocean surface by the addition of nutrients to greatly enhance the productivity of the resource. When applied to large areas of the barren tropical seas, ocean farming can increase the phyto plankton, the base of the food chain, bringing the productivity up to the level that occurs naturally off of the coast of Peru. This can result in an increase in fish catch by a factor of 400 or more. A 53,000 square mile ocean area might see the fish catch go to 50 million tons per year. The carbon dioxide absorbed initially could exceed the production by the United States from the burning of fossil fuels. While the concept of farming is well accepted on land, the extension to the ocean is new. It requires the investment in the resource to increase productivity so the "commons" approach, which has been the tradition in the ocean fisheries, does not suffice. A measure of private property rights are needed, at least within the national exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of the host states.

The response of much of the oceanographic community has been negative, but after careful study some key oceanographers have endorsed the validity of the project.

Recurring theme:

Unrecognized Potential Side Effects

Successful fertilization must change water transparency

Tomascik et al. 1993


Another idea

Fertilization of Ocean Waters with Nitrogen will Provide Food and Sequester Carbon

http://www.oceannourishment.com


Mississippi ‘Dead Mississippi ‘Dead Zone’Zone’

Low oxygen water… has spread across Low oxygen water… has spread across nearly 5,800 square miles of the Gulf of nearly 5,800 square miles of the Gulf of MexicoMexico

Nutrient input the causeNutrient input the cause

Plankton BiomassPlankton Biomass

oxygen concentration oxygen concentration (red and orange very low)(red and orange very low)

Chisholm slide

Both “High-Nutrient, Low-Chlorophyll” and Open-Ocean Blue Waters were Targets

Stimulation of Nitrogen Fixation

Transformation of Food Webs

As Presented by John Cullen, PICES IX, Hakodate, 24 October 2000


Objections were raised


A range of views

Still virtually inaccessible to the general public


Maritime Law: 1990 – 2006

Jurisdiction is unclear

No obvious recognition of the problem

No strong lines of communications with oceanographers

“Policy vacuum”

Elizabeth Mann Borgese

March, 2000


Promotions continued


Others withdrew from the spotlight


2007

Major program of iron fertilization announced


NGOs raise concerns


3. The Scientific Groups of the London Convention and London Protocol note with concern the potential for large-scale ocean iron fertilisation to have negative impacts on the marine environment and human health. They therefore recommend that any such operations be evaluated carefully to ensure, among other things, that such operations are not contrary to the aims of the London Convention and London Protocol.

After 20 years, ocean fertilization is gaining recognitionin ocean policy


4. Such an evaluation should include, among other things, consideration of:

1. the estimated amounts and potential impacts of iron and other materials that may be released with the iron;

2. the potential impacts of gases that may be produced by the expected

phytoplankton blooms or by bacteria decomposing the dead phytoplankton;

3. the estimated extent and potential impacts of bacterial decay of the

expected phytoplankton blooms, including reducing oxygen concentrations;

4. the types of phytoplankton that are expected to bloom and the

potential impacts of any harmful algal blooms that may develop; 5. the nature and extent of potential impacts on the marine ecosystem

including naturally occurring marine species and communities; 6. the estimated amounts and timescales of carbon sequestration,

taking account of partitioning between sediments and water; and 7. the estimated carbon mass balance for the operation.

Basically, a call for an environmental impact assessment


…and markets will require stringent verification

An example


Key Concepts

Measurable – within standard margins of measurement error (e.g., +/- 3%)

Secondary effects must be quantified

Permanent – with mechanism for immediate replacement or compensation if GHG reduction is reversed


“the project boundary shallencompass all anthropogenic emissionsby sources of greenhouse gases(GHG) under the control of the projectparticipants that are significant andreasonably attributable to theproject activity.”

Key Concept:Project Boundary


What is the Project? 25 Gt(C) over 50 years


If ocean fertilization is to significantly influence

atmospheric carbon dioxide, the project boundary is the whole

ocean.


IronIron

Organic N Organic N

PhytoplanktonPhytoplanktonBloomBloom

NHNH44

N remineralizationN remineralization

COCO22

NONO33--

NN22

NN2200 Nitrous oxideNitrous oxide• Greenhouse gas

• 300x CO2

Lower Lower Oxygen WatersOxygen Waters

After a slide from S.W. Chisholm

Microbial Nitrification

Mic

robi

al

Den

itrifi

catio

n

NN2200

Secondary effects must be quantified


Arguably it cannot be done with acceptable accuracy


We have a basis for rational discussion

Proposition: Ocean fertilization for carbon offsets cannot be verified so it is not a viable technology for climate mitigation.


Thank you

Travel

Science, policy and large-scale fertilization of the ocean for carbon offsets