Choosing the Electric Avenue - Webinar Presentation

C H O O S I N G E L E C T R I C AV E N U E

U N L O C K I N G S AV I N G S , E M I S S I O N S R E D U C T I O N S , A N D C O M M U N I T Y B E N E F I T S O F E L E C T R I C V E H I C L E S

John Farrell Director of Energy DemocracyJune 21, 2017

“That was like a roller coaster”

6 R E A S O N S W E N E E D T O A C T N O W

1S U R G I N G S A L E SQ

uart

erly

EV

Sal

es (t

hous

and

s)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Each quarter in 2016 has seen higher EV sales than the same quarter in any prior year

Source: Inside EVs / UCS

1EV

Sal

es (m

illio

ns)

0

5

10

15

20

2010 2020 2030 2040

Bloomberg Electric Vehicle Initiative (target)

EIA Navigant

2016 actual

U . S . E L E C T R I C V E H I C L E S A L E S F O R E C A S T S

Annual sales, plug-in hybrid and all-electric

E L E C T R I C V E H I C L E O W N E R S H I P 1 0 - Y E A R S AV I N G S

$0

$3,000

$6,000

$9,000

$12,000

$15,000

2017 Nissan Leaf v. Nissan Versa

10-year sched. maintenance savings

10-year fuel cost savings (est.)Battery replacement cost (est.)

Does not include typical repairs unique to gasoline cars, including

timing belts, water pumps, etc.

2

W H AT C A R H A S T H E H I G H E S T C U S T O M E R S AT I S FA C T I O N ?

P O L L T I M E !

A. Porsche Carrera

B. Tesla Model S

C. BMW 328i

D. Volkswagen Beetle

E. Ford Focus

3H I G H C U S T O M E R S AT I S FA C T I O N F O R E L E C T R I C V E H I C L E S

Source: Inside EVs, from Consumer Reports: http://bit.ly/2n7zENP

Tesla Model S

Chevrolet Volt

Honda Accord Hybrid

Ford Fusion Energi

Toyota Prius

Nissan Leaf

0 25 50 75 100

7782

848585

98

Percentage of owners who would definitely purchase the same vehicle again

Tesla Model S

Audi A8

Lexus LS

Mercedes-Benz S-Class

Hyundai Equus

Porsche Panamera

0 25 50 75 100

80808181

8498

Hybrids / Electric Vehicles

Large Luxury Cars

Perc

ent o

f dai

ly tr

avel

thi

s d

ista

nce

0%

10%

20%

30%

< 1 mile 1-5 miles 6-15 miles 16-30 miles 31-45 miles 46-60 miles 61-120 miles 121+ miles

S U F F I C I E N T R A N G E N O W

The Nissan Leaf’s 107-mile

range is enough for 83% of daily automobile use

Source: 2009 FHWA NHTS

Daily vehicle miles traveled

4

B E T T E R R A N G E C O M I N G 5

6U . S . E L E C T R I C V E H I C L E S A L E S F O R E C A S T SEV

Bat

tery

Cap

acity

(meg

awat

ts)

0

30,000

60,000

90,000

120,000

150,000

2010 2020 2030 2040

Bloomberg Electric Vehicle Initiative (target)

EIA Navigant

Plug-in hybrid and all-electric

Batteries of new EVs equal 30,000 MW of capacity (on

a Level 2 charger)

Typical utility 15-year resource plan

C O S T O F I N A C T I O N ?

N E T B E N E F I T S O F N O T H I N G

Source: California Transportation Electrification Assessment

(October 2014)

Perc

ent i

ncre

ase

in p

eak

ener

gy

dem

and

0

3

6

9

12

Minnesota California Texas New York Hawaii

9%

3.4%

4.9%

11.1%

3%

P R E S S U R E O N P E A KUnmanaged Electric Vehicle Charging Impacts Peak Demand

Source: Rocky Mountain Institute

EVs23%

Percent of Vehicle Fleet

2 E A S Y W AY S T O A C T

W H I C H D E V I C E C A N D O T H E M O S T T O I N C R E A S E G R I D B E N E F I T S O F E V S ?

P O L L T I M E !

A

B

C

I N C E N T I V I Z E B E N E F I C I A L C H A R G I N G T I M E S

1

E V C H A R G I N G R AT E S

X C E L E N E R G Y

0¢

10¢

20¢

30¢

40¢

50¢

Hour of the day

Regular rateSummer surcharge D A K O TA

E L E C T R I C ( B A S I C )

Hour of the day

cents per kilowatt-hour cents per kilowatt-hour

charging not available

D A K O TA E L E C T R I C

( T O U )

Hour of the day

cents per kilowatt-hour

*Off-peak rates also apply to weekends and holidays

1 6 12 6 12 1 6 12 6 12 1 6 12 6 12

E V C H A R G I N G R AT E S

*Off-peak rates also apply to weekends and holidays

S A C R A M E N T O M U N I C I PA L

E L E C T R I C V E H I C L E C H A R G I N G TA R I F F S

Source: Northeast Group, ILSR

Adopted June 2015 or earlier

Under consideration

Level 2 Charging

DC Quick Charging

Level 1 Charging

Source: fleetcarma

120-volt ~ 1.3 kilowatts

240-volt ~ 3.3 - 6.6 kilowatts

440-volt ~ 50 kilowatts

2D E P L O Y I N F R A S T R U C T U R E

L E V E L 2 V E R S U S L E V E L 1

Nissan Leaf 30 kWh

Tesla Model S 60 kWh

Tesla Model S 100 kWh

0 20 40 60 80

15 hours

9 hours

4.5 hours

Level 2 charging time (6.6 kW)

Additional time to charge at Level 1 (1.3 kW)

23 hours

46 hours

77 hours

U T I L I T Y F I N A N C E D ?

For every 15 new customers, the utility would recoup about $24,000 in new revenue over the first ten years of vehicle ownership, enough to pay for 15 home Level 2

chargers and 1 public charger.+ 10 years$24,000

=15 EV home chargers

1 public charger

Revenue from electricity sales to 15 electric vehicles over 10 years

6 B I G B E N E F I T S O F A C T I O N

0

3

6

9

12

Minnesota California Texas New York Hawaii

1.3%0.6%0.9%1.3%

0.5%

9%

3.4%

4.9%

11.1%

3%

Uncontrolled Controlled

T H E T I M E I S R I G H TManaged Electric Vehicle Charging Lowers Peak Demand Impact Several States

Source: Rocky Mountain Institute

1

W H AT A R E T H E AV E R A G E A N N U A L S AV I N G S O F C H A R G I N G O F F -P E A K ?

P O L L T I M E !

Compared to average fuel economy gasoline car; off-peak assumed to be 3¢ per kilowatt-hour

W H AT A R E T H E AV E R A G E A N N U A L S AV I N G S O F C H A R G I N G O F F -P E A K ?

P O L L T I M E !

A. $100

B. $500

C. $1,000

D. $5,000

E. $1 million

Compared to average fuel economy gasoline car; off-peak assumed to be 3¢ per kilowatt-hour

0

300

600

900

1200

1500

$980

$1,470

0

300

600

900

1200

1500

Standard electricity rates Off-peak electricity rates

15,000 miles 10,000 miles 15,000 miles 10,000 miles

$680

$1,000

O F F - P E A K C H A R G I N G I N C R E A S E S S AV I N G S O F D R I V I N G E L E C T R I C

Annual average savings compared to driving on gasoline, U.S. states

2

P R O J E C T E D A N N U A L F U E L S AV I N G S E L E C T R I C V. G A S C A R S

Driving 15,000 miles per year, charging on off-peak rates

$1,200 to $1,400

$1,400 to $1,600

$1,600 to $1,920

2

E L E C T R I C V E H I C L E S C A N P R O V I D E G R I D S E R V I C E S

-7 kW

-5 kW

-3 kW

-1 kW

1 kW

3 kW

5 kW

7 kW

0 kW

Charging

Dischargingkilowatts

6.6 kW ancillary services bid

13.2 kW ancillary

services bid

Car with charge-only capability

Car with vehicle-to-grid capability

3

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Percent at homePercent at work

R E A D Y T O C H A R G E

EV location source: http://bit.ly/2hlRn3u

Most electric vehicles are idle when the grid needs them

Hour of the day

41%

31%

3

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Percent at homePercent at workElectricity demand w/o EVsElectricity demand w EVs

R E A D Y T O C H A R G E

Hourly load (ScottMadden): http://bit.ly/2hm527XEV location source: http://bit.ly/2hlRn3u

Charging EVs could solve “ramping” issues by absorbing daytime solar

energy production

Hour of the day

3

1.5 million cars

H O W M A N Y E V S C A N C H A R G E W I T H O V E R N I G H T C A PA C I T Y I N T H E M I D W E S T G R I D R E G I O N ?

P O L L T I M E !

A. 50,000

B. 150,000

C. 1.5 million

D. 7.5 million

E. 22.5 million

P O L L T I M E !

H O W M A N Y E V S C A N C H A R G E W I T H O V E R N I G H T C A PA C I T Y I N T H E M I D W E S T G R I D R E G I O N ?

Hour of the day (CDT)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Wind output Chosen day Year before

Low overnight demand

July 31, 2016

A M P L E O V E R N I G H T P O W E R S U P P LY

0

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

50,000

megawatt-hours

100,000

150,000Midwest Region daily demand curve

4

Hour of the day (CDT)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Wind output Chosen day Year before

Low overnight demand

July 31, 2016

A M P L E O V E R N I G H T P O W E R S U P P LY

0

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

50,000

megawatt-hours

100,000

150,000Midwest Region daily demand curve

Extra wind power at night

4

Hour of the day (CDT)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Wind output Chosen day Year before

Low overnight demand

July 31, 2016

A M P L E O V E R N I G H T P O W E R S U P P LY

0

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

50,000

megawatt-hours

100,000

150,000Midwest Region daily demand curve

Plenty of available capacity

Extra wind power at night

50,000 MWh = enough to charge 7.5 million cars

4

5E L E C T R I C B U S H E A LT H B E N E F I T S

97% reduction in particulates 140 tons less of CO2 per year

$150,000 annual savings

Credit: Proterra

A marriage of sexy electrics: Over 1 in 10 EV owners also has rooftop solar

https://ilsr.org/report-electric-vehicles/

6

As solar grows, it reduces demand for grid power (2).

1 2

6

As solar grows, it reduces demand for grid power (2). If it grows further, solar can power the entire local grid and “backfeed” to

the larger grid (3).

1 2 3

As solar grows, it reduces demand for grid power (2). If it grows further, solar can power the entire local grid and “backfeed” to the larger grid (3). Adding electric vehicles (4) can

absorb this excess local production.

1 2 3 4

S U M M A R Y: A C T N O W

6 Reasons to act

6 Benefits of action

Easy ways to act2

10k 98 83% 2018 30 GW

7.5m

Electric car adoption will happen faster than we expect

T H A N K Y O U !@johnffarrell

www.ilsr.org

C H A N G I N G T H E R U L E S

P R O V I D I N G T O O L S

1 0 0 % R E N E WA B L E L O C A L E C O N O M Y

H U M A N S C A L E

L O C A L O W N E R S H I P

D E M O C R AT I C A U T H O R I T Y

I L L U S T R AT I N G T H E V I S I O N