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Africa4.0Opportuni*esforAfricafromIndustry4.0?CapeTown|13October2017 Theworld’sleadingopenforesightprogram
Context–Africa4.0Withtherapidevolu*onofdigitalopportuni*es,thereisgrowingexpecta*on
thatIndustry4.0couldhaveadrama*cimpactonAfrica.Willit?CanithelpshiJAfricafromleapfroggingtoleading?Wherearethebiggestopportuni*es?
OverviewThistalklooksatsomeofthekeyIndustry4.0changesthatareemerging.ItaskswhereandhowtheymayimpactAfricainthefutureandwhatare
someofthekeychallengesandopportuni*esthatlieahead.
Africa4.0
Implica*ons Ques*ons
FutureAfrica
Challenges Opportuni*es
Industry4.0
ThePromise ExampleImpacts
FutureAgendaTheFutureAgendaistheworld’slargestopenforesightprogram.
Runasaglobaldialogueacrossallcon*nents,itaccessesmul*pleviewsofthenextdecadesowecanallbebeQerinformedandsos*mulateinnova*on.
Manufacturing’sNextActSmartfactoriesfeaturedecentralizedsystemsthatcollaboratewitheachotherwithexcep*onallevelsofproduc*vityandquality.Componentmanufacture,assembly,tes*ngandpackagingareallmoreflexible,faster,cheaperandmoreeffec*ve.
Automa?onBeyondtheFactoryOutsidetheSmartFactory,manyarepreparingforaworldinwhichtheInternetof
Things,AI,machinelearningandautonomousvehicles,alloperatewithinanincreasinglyconnectedworld–wheredataanddigitalinfrastructuresdominate.
EverythingConnectedOver1trillionsensorsareconnectedtomul*plenetworks:everythingthatcanbenefitfromaconnec*onhasone.Wedeliver10,000xmoredata100xmore
effec*velybutareconcernedaboutthesecurityofinforma*onflow.
RealTimeAnaly?csPervasivedatasharingcombineswithreal*meanalysisandmachinelearning
toprovideallpar*eswithdiagnos*csandpredica*ononvehiclesafety,op*malschedulingoftrains,andmaintenanceandself-repairofequipment.
MachineLearningTakingControlWiththeriseofAIandautonomouscompu*ng,machinelearningis
increasinglyputincontrolofmanagingourenergysystems–quicklyrealizingefficiencysavingsofaround50%insomesectors.
DigitalMoneyCashcon*nuestobegraduallyreplacedbydigitalmoney,providing
consumerswithmoreconvenienceandchoice–andorganisa*onswithlowercosttransac*ons.Wideradop*onenablesnewofferstoproliferate.
DataOwnershipIndividualsrecognizethevalueoftheirdigitalshadows,privacyagentscurateclients’datasetswhilepersonaldatastoresgiveustransparentcontrolofourinforma*on:Weretainmoreownershipofourdataandopttoshareit.
BuildingDataMarketplacesDataisacurrency,ithasavalueandaprice,andthereforerequiresamarketplace.Anecosystemfortradingdataisemergingandanything
thatisinforma*onisrepresentedinanewdatamarketplace.
GrowingCyberTerrorismDigitalmanufacturingandtransportsystemsbecomeincreasinglypopular
targetsforhackersandcyberterrorists.Pervasiveconnec*vityandweaksecurityprovideevermoreopenbackdoorsforsustaineddenialofservice.
AfricaGrowthWithalandmassbiggerthanIndia,China,theUSandEuropecombined,fewdoubtthescaleofAfricaanditsresources.However,un*lrecently,onlysomehaveseenthepoten*alinthegrowthmarketsthatsomeSSAna*onsarefastbecoming.
EquitableEconomicGrowthSomeoftheworld’sfastestgrowingeconomiesaretobefoundinAfrica–butsoalsoaremanyofthena*onswiththefastestgrowingpopula*ons.
Ensuringthattheeconomicgrowthbenefitsallisseenasachallengeformany.
ImpactsofClimateChangeAstheworldwarmsbybetween2oCand4oC,Africaisexpectedtowarmupto1.5*mesfasterthattheaverage.Keyimplica*onsincludefloodinginDaresSalaamandLagos,severedroughts,lowerfoodyieldsandthemigra*onoftenofmillionsnorth.
ModernizingLongDistanceNetworksTransporta*oncostsadd50%to75%inRwanda,MalawiandUganda.Upgradinginterna*onalroadsandarevivalofrailisahighprioritybutthepaybackforChinainfundingmuchofthisraisesmanyques*ons.
DigitalConnec?vityinAfricaAcrossdifferentAfricanna*ons,thecurrentlevelsofdigitalconnec*vityvaries
significantly.SSAaccountsfor1/10ofglobalmobilesubscribersandisexpectedtogrowfasterthateveryotherregionoverthenextfiveyears.
SmartphonePenetra*on(GSMA2017)
3G/4GNetworkCo
verage
MobilePenetra?on
<50%
50-75%
>75%
SouthAfrica
100%
50%
50%25%0%
Nigeria
Sudan
AFRICA
GLOBAL
ECOWAS
ECCAS
EAC
SADC
Tanzania
LeapfroggingtoLeadersSomeAfricaneconomiesdomorethancatchup.Aswithmobiletelecoms,
theyareadop*ngnewenergysystemsearly,leapfroggingtheWestwithsomerapidlyalsobecomingleadersinlow-costservicestoagrowingmiddleclass.
KenyaAlreadyLeadingDuetothesuccessofm-Pesa,Kenyaiswidelyrecognizedasaleadinghubformobilepayments.Movingahead,withincreasedinvestmentandinterestfromthelikesofFacebook,Nairobimaywellbecomeoneoftheworld’smostinnova*veci*es.
Op?mizedSolarIncorpora*ngAIalgorithmsintothemanagementofsolarsupplyanddemand
networkscansignificantlyimproveefficiencyofenergyconsump*onvialocalizedsmartgrids-whereeveryoneisanenergyproducerandconsumer.
Op?misingLastMileDeliverySeamless,integratedandsharedlast-miledeliveryreplacesinefficient
compe**onandduplica*onofgoodsdistribu*on.Greaterefficiencyinmovingthingsisasimportantasinmovingpeopleandsoamajorfocusforinnova*on.
FinancialInclusionImprovingaccessto,aswellastrustin,newbankingplamormsisexpectedtosignificantlyenhancefinancialinclusion.Fromaregulatoryperspec*ve,DRCis
alreadyseenasoneofthemostproac*vena*onsintheworldformobilepayments.
Fric?onlessCurrencyTransferToimprovetradeflowsenhancinginterna*onalremiQancepaymentsisamajorfocus.
Usingacombina*onofmobileandbitcoin,morearelookingtoavoidhighbankchargesasnewdigitalforexexchangesareemergingfastacrossthecon*nent.
SmartGovernmentManyarehopingthatgreaterICTaccessandbroadbandadop*onwillimprove
governmentefficiencyandtransparency.Withtheprivatesectorasapriority,theSmartAfricaManifestohasbeenendorsedbymostandpartnershipsareinmo*on.
DigitalIden??esAsmul*-factorbiometricsandwidespreadfingerprintdriveniden*tyverifica*ontakeshold,authen*ca*onandengagementofthewiderpopula*onincreases.
AsinIndia,digitaliden**esmaywellopenthedoortothemainstream.
TheRiseofMachinesThegrowthintheintelligenceandcapabili*esofmachinespresentsbothathreatandanopportunity:GreaterAIandautoma*onwillfreeup*me,butalsothreatenjobs:Alreadyshortof1mengineers,bridgingthedigitalskillsgapisanAfricapriority.
HealthcareEfficiencyWithgreaterlevelsofmobilehealth,remotesupportisextendingreach,reducing
costsandimprovinghealthcareefficiency.AfricaandIndiaarebothseenasleadersforstart-upspartneringwithnetworkstoimprovecompliance,stockandaffordability.
DroneDeliveryWithearlysuccessofpilotsinRwanda,thedeliveryofbloodproductsand
vaccinesbydroneisbeingsupportedasamajorchangeagentforpublichealth.Addingreaterautoma*onandnaviga*onandtheimpactscalessignificantly.
AgriculturalProduc?vityWithincreasingaccesstoreal*meanaly*csanddatavisualisa*on,morefarmersareabletobeQeralignirriga*onandfer*lizeruseandsoimproveyields.InGhanaandCameroonshareddataisreducingpriceasymmetryandloweringpaymentcosts.
LandAdministra?onFewAfricanfarmerscurrentlyhaverightsoverthelandtheywork.Adop*ngadigitalapproach,suchasblock-chain,toassignandmanagerightsmaybetransforma*onal
– unlocking‘darkcapital’cansignificantlyimproveyieldsandinvestment.
RiskMi?ga?onAcrossacon*nentofmanyna*ons,managingriskisanincreasingfocus.
BeQerregionalintegra*onisseenasacorecomponentasiswideradop*onofdigitaliden**esforpayments,socialsecurityandci*zenship.
DeeperCollabora?onPartnershipsshiJtobecomemoredynamic,long-term,democra*sed,
mul*-partycollabora*ons.Compe*toralliancesandwiderpublicpar*cipa*ondriveregulatorstocreatenewlegalframeworksforopen,empathe*ccollabora*on.
SystemEfficiencyWhatlevelsofimpactfromAfrica4.0canbeexpectedinkeyareasoftheeconomy?
Whicharemostopentochange,whichhavethegreatestpoten*alforchangeandwhichhavetheabilitytodrivethechangemosteffec*vely?
Disrup?onPoten?alAsmoreentrepreneursbecomeconnectedandenabledtoinnovate,whatsectors
willbethosemostopentomajordisrup*onandreinven*onandwhichwillnurturestart-upsabletohavesignificantimpactontheglobalstage?
SharingtheBenefitsAstheinfluenceofAfrica4.0spreadsandimprovesefficiencyandimpact,furthereconomicgrowthwillfollow.Howwillthebenefitsbesharedmoreequitablyacrossthewholeofsocietyandnotjustbetweentheleadership?
China’sExtendingInfluenceChinaisalreadyAfrica’sbiggesttradingpartnerandisbehindmuchofthenewinfrastructureinvestments.Howwillna*onsbestmanagethisrela*onshipinthedigitalworldandpreventitfrombeingthe21stcenturyversionofcoloniza*on?
GovernmentCollabora?onDatadoesnotrecognizena*onalboundaries.Itflowswhereveritiswanted.
HowcanAfricangovernmentsandindustriesimprovecollabora*ononAfrica4.0toenablethepoten*alofdigitaliza*onbeingdiscussedtobestberealized?
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